The Championship returns on Friday night as Ipswich host Sheffield United at Portman Road, with both clubs searching for a foothold after difficult starts.
Ipswich sit 20th with three points from four matches, yet their league position is harsher than performances suggest. They have drawn three games and lost once, often frustrated by fine margins. The underlying numbers show more promise. Their xPTS tally of 5.88 puts them above Sheffield United and in line with mid-table clubs. Non-penalty xG data highlights a side creating nearly one goal a game while restricting opponents to just 0.65, one of the lowest defensive figures in the division.
The summer was turbulent, with key players like Conor Chaplin, Liam Delap, Omari Hutchinson, club captain Sam Morsy and Nathan Broadhead all moving on. That has left Kieran McKenna to rebuild, and while several new signings have yet to feature heavily, he remains confident the squad can settle quickly. His focus is on maintaining defensive stability while finding a sharper cutting edge in attack.
Sheffield United, meanwhile, prop up the table with four defeats from four and just a single goal scored. Ruben Selles has been under pressure since the window shut, with reports suggesting Danny Rohl is already being lined up should results not improve. There have been signs of renewal: Ben Godfrey and Japhet Tanganga have bolstered the back line, while Tahith Chong and Chiedozie Ogbene (who is ineligible to play against his parent club) should inject pace in the final third. Even so, United’s xPTS of 5.52 still underline a side struggling to translate play into results.
With Ipswich seeking their first win and Sheffield United desperate to kick-start their campaign, this Friday night clash promises tension, tactical battles, and the weight of expectation pressing heavily on both dugouts.
How the bookies view it: Tractor Boys favourites
Ipswich host Sheffield United at Portman Road on Friday night and the bookmakers make the home side favourites at 10/11, an implied probability of 52.4%. Ipswich have drawn three of their opening four games, and while they are still without a win, their underlying numbers suggest improvement.
The draw is 11/4 (26.7%) and could appeal given Ipswich’s run of stalemates. Sheffield United, bottom with four defeats from four, are 16/5 (23.8%) to claim their first points.
For goals, over 2.5 is 23/25 (52.6%) while both teams to score is 4/5 (55.6%). Both markets imply a competitive contest, though United’s scoring record with just one goal this season may deter some backers.
Head to Head: Blades look sharp
Sheffield United have dominated recent meetings with Ipswich, going unbeaten in the last five clashes between the sides. The Blades won three of those games, including a 2–0 victory in April 2019 and a pair of 1–0 wins in 2017 and 2018, while the other two ended level.
Ipswich have managed just one goal across that run, a 1–1 draw in December 2018 and have failed to score in four of the last five encounters. Overall, Sheffield United hold the upper hand with five goals to Ipswich’s one in this recent head-to-head record.
Players to watch: Set pieces key for Tractor Boys
Backing Jacob Greaves and Dara O’Shea for 1+ shot each looks a smart play given Ipswich’s clear reliance on set pieces and their defenders’ involvement in attack. Between them, the two centre-backs have managed at least one effort in every league game this season. O’Shea has taken a shot in three of four matches, while Greaves has done so in two of four, underlining the consistency of their output.
Ipswich’s defenders as a unit have accounted for 15 of the team’s 52 total attempts, with Greaves already finding the net and showing accuracy by hitting the target with two of his three efforts. That strength is backed up by the underlying data: Ipswich currently rank fourth in the Championship for xG from set pieces, highlighting the threat they carry in dead-ball situations.
Sheffield United, meanwhile, have conceded five shots from set pieces in their two away games, suggesting opportunities should come again for Ipswich’s centre-backs. The odds were no available at the time of writing but backing either player to have a header on target or score should also be considered. Both players are available at 12/1 and higher to score.
Predicted line-ups
Ipswich Town (4-2-3-1): Palmer, Furlong, O’Shea, Greaves, Davis, Matusiwa, Cajuste, McAteer, Akpom, Philogene, Hirst
Sheffield United (4-3-3): Cooper, Tanganga, Godfrey, Bindon, Burrows, Hamer, O’Hare, Brooks, Campbell, Barry, Peck
Anything else catch the eye?
The data points firmly towards a low-scoring contest at Portman Road. Ipswich and Sheffield United have both leaned heavily towards tight matches in the early rounds, and the performance metrics back that up.
Ipswich average only 2.00 shots on target per game, ranking among the lowest in the Championship. They also concede just 2.25, which is the fifth-best defensive mark in the division. That narrow balance helps explain why three of their opening four fixtures have ended with fewer than three goals.
Sheffield United’s struggles are even clearer. They average 2.00 shots on target but face 4.75, the second-worst differential in the league. It reflects a team often pinned back, short of attacking thrust, and struggling to turn possession into chances. They have failed to score in three of their four games, while conceding just seven times which is not catastrophic defensively but a sign that most matches are played on fine margins.
Big chance creation adds another layer. Ipswich have managed just three clear-cut opportunities across their fixtures, with Sheffield United only slightly better at four. Both sides are well below the division’s leading chance creators and combined with Ipswich ranking mid-table for chances conceded and Sheffield United among the better sides at preventing them, this looks primed to be attritional rather than open.
xPTS tell a similar story. Ipswich at 5.88 and Sheffield United at 5.52 are separated by very little, pointing to a likely stalemate in terms of quality. Neither club has looked capable of generating the volume required for a goal-heavy match.
Taken together it is a story of weak shot volumes, limited big chances, and frequent blanks in front of goal and therefore under 2.5 goals is strongly supported by the data for this Friday’s meeting.
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