The National League action continues on Wednesday night as Hartlepool United welcome Boston United to Victoria Park. The two sides meet in contrasting moods, with Pools flying high after an impressive start and Boston still searching for consistency.
Hartlepool come into the game unbeaten in their last five, collecting 11 points in that period and conceding only once across their opening six matches. That defensive record is unrivalled in the division, and it underpins their current position near the top of the table. Their xPTS tally of five is much lower than the 12 they have actually collected, highlighting just how clinical and efficient they’ve been at seeing games out. Supporters are already starting to believe that a promotion push could be on the cards if this form continues.
Boston, meanwhile, are enduring a tougher beginning. They have lost three of their five matches and sit lower down the table, with just six points to their name. Their xPTS of two shows they have probably even overachieved slightly based on performances. Conceding nine goals in that run points to clear defensive issues, while scoring only five underlines a lack of cutting edge up front.
The club saw some key departures in the summer, and while reinforcements have been brought in, it has yet to properly click. A trip to the best defence in the league is a daunting prospect, and Boston will need a big improvement if they’re to take something back home.
How the bookies view it: Hosts clear favourites
Hartlepool are 8/11 favourites for their home clash with Boston United, which implies a 57.9% chance of victory, while the draw is 11/4 (26.7%) and Boston are 18/5 (21.7%). The goals markets lean towards action, with over 2.5 goals priced at 17/20 (54.1%) and both teams to score at 4/5 (55.6%).
However, the underlying data tells a different story. Hartlepool have conceded just once in six games, keeping five clean sheets, and their matches average only 1.5 goals per game with everyone landing under 4.5. Boston, meanwhile, have scored just five times, failed to net in three of their five fixtures and average only 1.0 xG. While the market points towards goals, the stats suggest a more controlled Hartlepool win in a low-scoring contest.
Head to Head: Hosts 100% record
Hartlepool have a perfect recent record against Boston United, winning both of their last two meetings. They ran out 2-1 winners away in September 2024 before following up with a convincing 4-1 victory at home in March 2025. That gives Pools a 100% record in this head-to-head over the past year, scoring six times and conceding just twice. On average they have managed three goals per game against Boston while limiting their opponents to one, underlining a clear upper hand in this fixture.
Players to watch: Reid on a roll
Alex Reid has made a strong start to life with Hartlepool, scoring three goals in his first five league appearances. He netted in three straight games against Braintree, Altrincham and Woking, including a penalty in the 2-0 win over Braintree, before going without a goal in his last two outings against Southend and Boreham Wood. Even so, he has started every match and remains the focal point of Hartlepool’s attack.
His tally of three goals in 394 minutes equates to a strike every 131 minutes, an impressive return in a side averaging just 1.33 goals per game. Reid has shown he can take chances when they come, whether from the spot or in open play, and while his scoring run has briefly stalled, he continues to look like Hartlepool’s most likely source of goals.
Predicted line-ups
Hartlepool United (4-4-2): Cartwright; John, Kouogun, McNally, Topalloj; Francis, Sheron, Miley, Daly; Johnson, Reid.
Boston United (4-3-3): Lovett; Grist, Teale, Kelly, Lankshear; Hill, Sloggett, Raikhy; Fogarty, John-Lewis, Richards.
Anything else catch the eye?
Hartlepool have built their early success on control and efficiency, and that makes backing them to win alongside under 4.5 goals a smart play. Pools have conceded just one goal in six matches, keeping five clean sheets, and their defensive structure has been outstanding. But this solidity has come with low-scoring affairs with their games average only 1.5 total goals, with all six falling under 4.5.
Digging deeper into the numbers, Hartlepool restrict opponents to just 6.7 shots per game, one of the lowest figures in the league. Only 2.0 of those hit the target, and they allow very few high-quality opportunities, giving up less than one big chance per match. That leaves opponents with little margin to break them down. In attack, they are measured rather than explosive, averaging just 10.2 shots per game themselves, which keeps score lines controlled.
Boston’s profile feeds into this outlook. They have failed to score in three of their five games and average only 1.0 xG per match, highlighting the lack of firepower. When they do threaten, they rely on set-pieces rather than sustained attacking play. Defensively, they concede 12.4 shots per game and 5.0 on target, meaning they are often under pressure. Crucially, though, they rarely get involved in wild score lines with four of their five matches have ended under 4.5 goals.
When combining Hartlepool’s defensive strength with Boston’s attacking limitations, the picture is clear. Pools should edge this comfortably, but their style means it is far more likely to be a steady 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 type victory rather than a goal glut. Hartlepool to win and under 4.5 goals looks the standout bet.
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