Harrogate Town host Crewe Alexandra at the EnviroVent Stadium on Monday night in League Two, with both sides looking to close the gap on the play-off places.
The hosts have been difficult to pin down this season, mixing impressive wins with equally poor defeats, while Crewe arrive with one of the division’s stronger data profiles despite a patchy record away from home.
Simon Weaver’s side sit mid-table on 14 points after 10 games (W4-D2-L4), but the underlying numbers show why consistency has been hard to find. Harrogate rank 17th for xPTS with 9.66 and 23rd for xG ratio at just 36%, highlighting how often they have been second-best in games. They have conceded at least once in nine of their ten matches and sit among the bottom four for xGA.
That fragility has been balanced by occasional cutting edge, especially at home where they have taken seven points from five matches, including recent wins over Shrewsbury and Barrow.
Crewe, meanwhile, come in with greater control in their underlying data. They rank sixth overall for xPTS (16.54) and sixth for non-penalty xG difference (+0.40), reflecting a team that generally creates more than they concede.
Away from home, they have been less convincing defensively but still strong going forward, averaging 1.50 xG per away match while producing consistent volume inside the box. Lee Bell’s side have only lost one of their last four, though three of those were draws, and will be confident of extending that run.
Team news is steady on both sides, with Harrogate close to full strength and Crewe expected to stick with a familiar line up. Both sides score and concede regularly, setting up an intriguing clash between a volatile home side and a well-balanced visitor.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourites
Crewe are priced at 6/5, which carries an implied probability of 45.5% to win. Harrogate are 23/10, equating to a 30.3% chance, while the draw is 27/10, or 27.0% implied probability. The prices suggest a fairly even contest, but with Crewe’s stronger xG data and higher xPTS ranking, the market expects them to edge it.
In the goals market, Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 19/20, implying a 51.3% probability. That looks well supported by recent data: Crewe’s matches average around 2.5 total xG, and eight of their ten league games have seen at least three goals. Harrogate’s home fixtures have followed a similar pattern, averaging 2.24 total xG, and 75% have hit the over.
Both teams to score is priced at 4/5, implying a 55.6% probability. The numbers back that up too as Crewe have scored in nine of ten league games and conceded in seven, while Harrogate have scored in all but one of their home matches.
Head to Head: Crewe strong record against Harrogate
The recent history between Harrogate Town and Crewe Alexandra has been one-sided, with the visitors holding a clear upper hand. The two sides have met seven times since Harrogate joined the Football League, and Crewe are unbeaten in all seven, winning four and drawing three.
Across those meetings, Crewe have scored 11 goals and conceded just three, giving them an average winning margin of +1.14 goals per game. Harrogate have yet to record a single victory in this fixture, and they’ve failed to score in four of the seven contests.
Their most recent encounter came in February 2025, when the sides drew 1-1 at the EnviroVent Stadium. Earlier that same season, Crewe ran out 3-0 winners at home in the reverse fixture. In the EFL Trophy meeting in October 2024, Crewe also won 1-0, extending their unbeaten streak in all competitions against Harrogate.
Players to watch: Duke-McKenna to cause defensive issues
Stephen Duke-McKenna stands out as one of the most reliable shooting options in the Harrogate Town squad, and the price of 7/10 for him to register 1+ shot on target against Crewe Alexandra looks fair value based on both form and data.
The attacking midfielder has been ever-present this season, starting all 11 competitive matches and averaging just over 2.2 shots per game, with 50% of those efforts on target.
He has landed at least one shot on target in seven of those 11 appearances, including each of his last two league outings in the 2-0 win over Shrewsbury and the 1-0 victory away at Gillingham. That level of consistency makes him a strong candidate for repeat success here.
His positioning in Simon Weaver’s 4-2-3-1 system supports the bet. Duke-McKenna operates centrally behind the striker but regularly drifts wide and takes on shots from both open play and set-piece situations. He leads Harrogate for total shots (24) and shots on target (12) this season, comfortably ahead of any teammate.
Crewe’s defensive record on the road also strengthens the angle. They concede 1.00 xGA per away match and have allowed an average of 4.4 opposition shots on target per game. Their full-backs push high, leaving space for attacking midfielders like Duke-McKenna to exploit from central positions and second balls around the box.
Given his form, shot frequency, and Harrogate’s tendency to rely on his creativity in the final third, 7/10 (implied probability 58%) feels a touch short but still playable. With regular shooting volume and a strong record of testing goalkeepers, Duke-McKenna to hit 1+ shot on target looks a solid and repeatable angle for Monday night’s fixture.
Predicted line-ups
Harrogate Town (4-2-3-1): Oxley, Asare, Burrell, Bradbury, Slater, Sutton, Fox, Duke-McKenna, Taylor, McAleny, Bennett
Crewe Alexandra (4-2-3-1): Booth, Billington, Demetriou, Golding, Agius, Sanders, Finney, Thomas, Holicek, March, O’Reilly
Anything else catch the eye?
The numbers point strongly towards a card-heavy game at the EnviroVent Stadium, making Over four Asian Cards an appealing bet. Referee Sam Mather takes charge, and his track record this season supports that angle as he has averaged 4.4 cards per match across 10 League One and Two fixtures, with eight of those ten clearing the four-card line.
Harrogate’s matches under Mather’s peers have followed a similar pattern. Their five home league games have produced an average of 4.4 total cards, split 1.8 to the hosts and 2.6 to opponents.
They have drawn fouls in transition and seen nine cards in five home fixtures. Crewe, meanwhile, are almost automatic for cards on the road. Their last five away games have seen 2, 4, 2, 4, and 2 team cards, averaging 2.8 per game, and every one has cleared the four-card line in total.
Beyond discipline trends, the data supports a competitive, high-contact contest. Both teams rank in the league’s top half for shots in box per game (Harrogate 7.0, Crewe 6.9) and each averages over 10 shots per match, suggesting sustained attacking phases that increase defensive pressure and fouls.
Crewe’s away games average 2.50 total xG and Harrogate’s home fixtures 2.24, figures that correlate closely with high-tempo, card-friendly matches. Tactically, Harrogate’s narrow shape and Crewe’s willingness to play through pressure often lead to midfield scrambles and tactical fouls, especially as both sides press second balls aggressively.
Mather’s assertive style and recent card distribution trends align perfectly with that setup. With both teams’ recent data and the referee’s record pointing the same way, Over four Asian Cards offers solid value, with the safety of a push if exactly four are shown and a high likelihood of a full win if the game becomes as combative as expected.
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