The National League action continues on Wednesday night as Gateshead host Altrincham at the Gateshead International Stadium. Both sides enter the game looking for consistency after mixed starts to the season, though the numbers behind their performances tell slightly different stories.
Gateshead sit mid-table with three wins from their opening six matches, but their campaign has been defined by chaos. They have scored 11 goals but conceded 14, with matches averaging over four goals per game. Their recent run sums them up: a 3-3 draw with Aldershot, a 4-3 defeat away at Yeovil, and a 2-1 home win over Tamworth. They are rarely dull to watch, but defensive frailties remain a major concern. Manager Rob Elliot has spoken about the need to tighten up, though their attacking output has been encouraging with several forwards chipping in.
Altrincham, meanwhile, arrive in the North East with just two wins from six, though expected points suggest they should be much higher up the table. Their underlying performances have been strong, but results have not matched, leaving them under pressure to turn good displays into victories. Their eight goals scored highlight their creativity, but 10 conceded shows the balance is not quite there yet.
Over the summer Alty saw striker Regan Linney, who scored 23 times last season leave but goals haven’t been hard to come by this season so far. Both clubs know this fixture could define momentum heading into September.
How the bookies view it: Goals on the agenda
The bookies make Gateshead slight favourites at 6/4, which implies a 40% chance, with Altrincham priced at 8/5 (38.5%) and the draw 11/4 (26.7%), showing how evenly matched the sides are. Goals are expected, with over 2.5 available at 8/13 (61.9%) and both teams to score at 8/15 (65.2%), and the stats strongly support those markets.
Head to Head: Honours even
The head-to-head record between Gateshead and Altrincham has been evenly balanced in recent years, with two wins apiece and two draws across their last six meetings. Gateshead have scored nine goals in those games compared to Altrincham’s ten, giving Alty a narrow edge.
The most recent clash in February 2025 saw Altrincham win 1-0 away, while earlier in the 2024/25 campaign the sides shared a 2-2 draw. In 2023/24 the fixtures were split, with Altrincham winning 2-0 away but Gateshead taking a dramatic 3-2 victory in the reverse. The 2022 FA Cup ties also highlighted how close this fixture usually is, ending 2-2 in Altrincham before Gateshead edged the replay 2-1 at home.
Overall, matches between the two are typically competitive and goal-filled, with an average of more than three goals per game across the last six encounters, but there has been no dominant side.
Players to watch: Hurst bang in form
Kyle Hurst looks a strong candidate to score again for Gateshead given his recent form and the way his side play. After being eased in with two substitute appearances, he has started the last three games and quickly become their most dangerous wide threat. He struck twice in the 3-3 draw with Aldershot and also netted in the 4-3 win at Yeovil, giving him three goals in his last two matches.
Gateshead’s fixtures are consistently high-scoring, averaging over four goals per game, and Hurst benefits from the open nature of these contests. Comfortable playing off either flank, he gets into advanced positions and has shown a clinical edge. With confidence high, another goal contribution feels very likely in the upcoming match.
Predicted line-ups
Gateshead (4-1-4-1): Brooks; Johnson, Flint, Richardson, Ferguson; Pani; Adom, John, Chapman, Hurst; Nouble.
Altrincham (4-3-3): Hutchinson; Banks, Reed, Barnes, Sassi; Marriott, Ward, Crawford; Reddin, Gale, Knowles.
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score looks the most logical approach when Gateshead face Altrincham. The data for both clubs this season consistently points towards high-scoring games where neither defence can be relied upon.
Gateshead’s matches have averaged 4.17 goals, the highest in the division, with five of their six fixtures finishing over 2.5. They concede far too many chances, giving up 12.4 shots per game, 5.0 on target, and over two big chances per match. That vulnerability is offset by their attack, which generates over 10 shots per game and 1.5 expected goals on average. This blend of firepower and defensive weakness creates end-to-end contests, and it is no surprise that four of their last five have seen both sides find the net.
Altrincham’s numbers strengthen the case. Their matches average three goals per game, with four of six going over 2.5. They take plenty of shots themselves, averaging 11.7 per match, with 4.2 on target, but are equally vulnerable, conceding 1.67 goals per outing. XPTS data shows they should have collected 14 rather than the six they currently have, highlighting how many tight games they have dominated but failed to see out. They rarely fail to score, blanking only once this season, while they have conceded in five of six.
When the most goal-heavy team in the league meets a side who are consistently underperforming their attacking metrics, goals look inevitable. Over 2.5 combined with both teams to score fits both profiles perfectly and represents excellent value.
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