FC Copenhagen and Vejle meet on Saturday in the Danish Superliga at Parken Stadium in what already feels like an uphill task for the visitors. Copenhagen opened their campaign with a 3-2 win last weekend, showing plenty of attacking intent but also some defensive vulnerability. They created 3.47 xG, took 21 shots, and generated five big chances while conceding 1.94 xG on just 10 shots against. That performance was in keeping with last season, where they led the league in xG, big chances, and finished with the best xPTS tally of 41.
Vejle arrive at Parken after a 1-1 home draw on the opening weekend. While the result was modest, the underlying numbers suggest they were unfortunate not to take all three points. They edged the xG battle 0.84–0.60, won the shot count 14–6, the shots-on-target count 3–2, and created the only big chance of the match. This reflects an improvement from last season when they finished second from bottom with just 21 points and the second-worst xG against.
Copenhagen’s home record last season was exceptional: unbeaten in 11 matches, with a record of W7-D4-L0, averaging 2.0 goals per game. Vejle, by contrast, struggled on their travels and conceded far more than expected over the course of the year. The gap in quality remains large, though Vejle have at least shown more resilience early in this campaign. With Copenhagen already looking sharp in attack and dominant at home, they are expected to control this match from the outset, but Vejle’s improved chance creation could still make it an open contest.
How the bookies view it: Copenhagen clear favourites
Copenhagen are clear favourites for this match, priced at 27/100 with an implied probability of around 78% chance. The draw is 21/4, implying about a 16%, while Vejle are big outsiders at 11/1, which suggests just over an 8% chance of an upset. The goals markets also point to an open game, with over 2.5 goals at 8/15, implying roughly a 65% chance, and both teams to score priced at evens, or a 50% chance. These odds reflect Copenhagen’s dominance in the head-to-head record and their attacking strength, along with Vejle’s tendency to contribute to high-scoring games despite being heavy underdogs.
Head to Head: Copenhagen dominate
Copenhagen have dominated their recent head-to-head meetings with Vejle, winning all of the last six league matches and remaining unbeaten in their last thirteen encounters. The fixture has consistently produced goals, with over 2.5 goals landing in seven of the last nine league games between them. Both teams have scored in five of the last six, showing that while Copenhagen usually win, Vejle have managed to find the net more often in recent years.
Notably, each of the last four league matches ended with a Copenhagen win by a single goal, including 3-1 and 2-1 victories last season, and a 3-2 away win in July 2023. This pattern suggests that while Copenhagen’s superior quality usually tells, Vejle have been able to keep the games competitive and contribute to high-scoring outcomes.
Players to watch: Elyounoussi to light it up
Mohamed Elyounoussi looks a strong candidate to score or assist, register at least one shot on target and attempt three or more shots when Copenhagen host Vejle. His numbers at Parken last season show just how consistently he delivers in front of the home crowd. Starting 10 times at home, he was directly involved in seven goals, scoring five and setting up two, and contributed a goal or assist in six of those matches. Against Vejle in particular, he scored once from four shots, two of which were on target, in their meeting at Parken last season, underlining his threat in this fixture.
Beyond goals, his shooting output is steady and reliable. He averaged 3.5 shots per home start, taking two or more in eight of ten games, and hitting the target in nine of those ten. His ability to consistently find shooting opportunities, and to work the goalkeeper, makes him an obvious focal point in Copenhagen’s attack.
Coming into this match, Copenhagen’s attack already looks sharp, generating 21 shots and 3.47 xG on opening weekend. Vejle, meanwhile, conceded 64 goals last season and continue to struggle defensively despite some improvement in chance creation. Elyounoussi’s proven record at home, his volume of shots, and his efficiency in turning chances into goals or assists make him a good bet to contribute on the scoresheet again while also meeting shot and accuracy thresholds.
Predicted line-ups
Copenhagen (4-2-3-1): Kotarski, Huescas, Hatzidiakos, Pereira, Froholdt, Delaney, Achouri, Claesson, Elyounoussi, Mattsson, Moukoko
Vejle (4-2-3-1): Vekic, Gundelund, Velkov, Nielsen, Sorensen, Hjulsager, Vestergaard, Lauritsen, Gammelgaard, Edjeodji, Duelund
Anything else catch the eye?
Copenhagen to win and over 2.5 goals stands out as a smart bet here. In their opening match, Copenhagen recorded 6 shots on target from 21 attempts, showcasing the high-volume attack that made them a consistent threat last season. Their home games regularly featured goals, with over 2.5 goals landing in more than half of them and both teams scoring in most fixtures.
Vejle’s defensive problems remain a concern. Last season they conceded 64 goals, significantly worse than their xGA, and that fragility persists. Even in their improved opener, they allowed 6 shots and 2 shots on target to a limited opponent. They also tend to collapse against higher-level attacks, as shown by the big chance differential over the 2024/25 campaign.
Copenhagen averaged nearly 5.7 shots on target per game last year with one of the highest conversion rates in the league. Their ability to create and finish high-quality chances remains unmatched, and they already generated 5 big chances in their opening match alone. Vejle, for their part, have shown some attacking intent, producing 14 shots and creating a big chance last weekend.
Given Copenhagen’s relentless attack, strong home record, and Vejle’s weak defensive numbers, the match has every chance of seeing a Copenhagen win with three or more goals scored in total.
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