Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg meet in the Allsvenskan at Boras Arena on Sunday in what looks an evenly balanced fixture between two sides chasing European spots.
Elfsborg sit fifth and have been strong at home, taking 16 points from eight matches with five wins. They average 2.25 goals per home game and have conceded 1.5 on average, making Boras Arena a place where games are competitive and usually open. Goteborg, meanwhile, come in sitting third in the table, helped by an excellent away record with five wins from eight. They average 1.88 points per away match and have not drawn any of their trips, showing they play decisively on the road.
Elfsborg’s xPTS at home is close to their actual return, suggesting they are performing about as expected, while their xG of around 26 aligns with their 27 goals scored, though they have missed more big chances than any team in the league. Goteborg have overperformed slightly away from home given their xPTS and xG are just below their actual numbers, but their defensive numbers away from home are worrying, conceding about 1.5 goals per game and rarely keeping clean sheets.
Both sides come in with inconsistent recent form: Elfsborg have suffered some tight defeats, while Goteborg continue to pick up points despite their inefficiency in attack. The match pits Elfsborg’s high-volume chance creation against Goteborg’s counter-attacking efficiency and given the patterns of both sides’ seasons so far, it has the potential to be close, competitive, and tactically interesting.
How the bookies view it: Close game expected
Elfsborg are priced at 11/10 to win at home, which implies a probability of about 48%. The draw is available at 3/1, implying roughly 25%, and IFK Goteborg are 23/10, which is about 30%. Over 2.5 goals is offered at 7/10, implying around 59%, while both teams to score is priced at 8/13, which is about 62%.
These odds reflect Elfsborg’s strong home record and dominance in recent head-to-head meetings, while also suggesting that goals and chances at both ends are expected given the attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams.
Head to Head: Elfsborg edge it
Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg have a long and competitive Allsvenskan rivalry, with the head-to-head record showing periods of dominance for both. Since 2014, they have met 24 times in league and cup competitions. Elfsborg have the clear upper hand with 11 wins, compared to Goteborg’s four, while nine have ended in draws.
Recent meetings have been particularly favourable to Elfsborg. Over the last 10 clashes, they have won six, with Goteborg managing just one win and three draws. Elfsborg also won the two most recent encounters, including a 2-1 victory away in July 2025. At Boras Arena, Elfsborg are unbeaten in the last five meetings, winning three and drawing two.
Both teams to score is common in this fixture. In the last 10 meetings, both sides scored in six matches, and Goteborg have found the net in four of their last five visits.
Over 2.5 goals has occurred in five of the last 10 clashes, showing potential for goals without being consistently high scoring. Elfsborg’s wins are often narrow, with four of their last six coming by a single goal, underlining how competitive these matches tend to be.
Players to watch: Ihler the main man
Frederik Ihler looks a strong candidate to score in this match given his impressive form, particularly at home. Across the season he has started 10 matches, scoring six goals and providing an assist in 759 minutes. He averages a goal every 127 minutes and has taken 25 shots, with 13 on target, showing both volume and accuracy.
His home record is even more convincing. In just four starts at Boras Arena, Ihler has played 307 minutes and scored five goals, averaging more than a goal per start. He has taken 15 shots at home, seven of them on target, and clearly thrives in front of his own fans. With Elfsborg creating the most big chances in the league and Ihler’s knack for finding good positions, he is well placed to extend his scoring run here. The combination of his high shot output, sharp finishing, and a fixture where Elfsborg are expected to attack makes him a good value bet to find the net.
Predicted line-ups
Elfsborg (5-3-2): Eriksson; Yegbe, Buhari, Holmen; Sigurpalsson, Wenderson, Thomasen, Zeneli, Hult; Silverholt, Ihler
IFK Goteborg (4-2-3-1): Bishesari, Erlingmark, Bager, Clemmensen, Tolf, Kruse, Thordarson, Alioum, Heintz, Santos, Fenger
Anything else catch the eye?
Over 2.5 goals looks a strong bet for this fixture, given the attacking and defensive tendencies of both sides. Elfsborg at home average over 13 shots and about five on target per game, creating more big chances than anyone else in the league with 45 so far. However, they have also missed more big chances than any other team, which shows how open their matches can be. Goteborg away generate about 10 shots per game, with around four on target and an efficient conversion rate, scoring in 62.5% of their trips and failing to score just three times.
Defensively, neither side excels. Elfsborg concede 1.5 goals per home game and keep clean sheets in less than 40% of matches. Goteborg concede at the same rate away and have only managed two clean sheets on the road all season. Goteborg’s away matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 62.5% of games, while Elfsborg’s home matches split evenly between over and under, but with both scoring and conceding at healthy rates.
Both also play with intent: Goteborg have yet to draw an away match, and both tend to attack even when behind, leading to end-to-end games. Their combined average of 3.75 goals per game in their respective home and away matches further supports over 2.5 goals being the value angle here.
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