Crystal Palace host Millwall in the third round of the EFL Cup at Selhurst Park on Tuesday night in a tie that brings together Premier League and Championship opposition.
Palace have made a steady start under Oliver Glasner, taking five points from their opening four league fixtures. They sit mid-table on xPTS (4.53, eighth best in the division) and while their expected goals ratio is just below 50%, they are excelling in key areas.
Palace average four shots on target per game while conceding only 2.33, a positive balance that places them among the top five in the league. In terms of squad development, Eberechi Eze’s departure still looms large, but the arrivals of Yeremy Pino and Jaydee Canvot have boosted depth. Defensively, Glasner’s structure is holding up, with only one big chance conceded across three games.
Millwall’s season has been mixed. They are mid-table in the Championship with five points from five matches. Their underlying data paints them as solid but not spectacular: xPTS sits at 6.39, and their non-penalty xG per game (1.33) is higher than last season’s average. Defensively they have been tighter, with 0.98 non-penalty xGA per game.
Recruitment has been pragmatic, with Will Smallbone, Thierno Ballo, Steven Benda all arriving on loan whilst they did a significant fee for Joshua Coburn from Middlesbrough. Results have been inconsistent though: a 2-0 defeat to Wrexham followed by a 1-1 draw at Charlton underlined their lack of momentum.
With both sides expected to name strong line-ups, Palace’s extra quality and home advantage makes them favourites. Millwall will try to make it a physical contest, but the Premier League side are better equipped in both boxes heading into this London derby.
How the bookies view it: Premier League side favourites
Crystal Palace are 4/9 favourites to win at Selhurst Park, an implied probability of about 69%, with the draw at 19/5 (21%) and Millwall priced at 13/2 (13%). The market expects Palace’s quality to show, especially with both sides likely to name strong teams.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 is 13/20 (61%) while both teams to score is 10/11 (52%). Bookmakers are leaning slightly towards a higher-scoring game, but not with overwhelming confidence, and the both teams to score price reflects some caution given Palace’s defensive organisation and Millwall’s tendency to keep contests competitive.
Head to Head: Eagles dominate over Lions
Crystal Palace have a perfect recent record against Millwall, winning all four meetings since 2020. That run includes two FA Cup victories, 2–1 at The Den in January 2022 and 3–1 at Selhurst Park in March 2025, as well as two friendlies, a 1–0 away win in 2020 and a 1–0 home win this past summer.
Across those four games Palace have scored seven and conceded just twice, averaging 2.25 points per match with a goal difference of +1.25. The head-to-head trend firmly underlines Palace’s dominance in this South London clash.
Players to watch: Mateta the main man for Palace
Jean-Philippe Mateta looks a strong anytime scorer option for Crystal Palace. The French striker has made an impressive start to the season with three goals in seven appearances across the Community Shield, Premier League and Europa Conference League qualifiers, underlining his consistency as Palace’s focal point.
What makes him appealing in the goal scorer market is not just his finishing but his steady shot output. He has attempted 10 shots with six on target, averaging close to a shot on target per game. Importantly, even in Palace’s goalless draws with Chelsea and Sunderland, Mateta still tested the goalkeeper, showing he is heavily involved regardless of whether the team converts their chances.
His goals have come in big moments too with him netting against Liverpool in the Community Shield, hitting the winner against Fredrikstad in Europe, and scoring in the 3–0 win over Aston Villa. That spread across competitions suggests he adapts well and takes opportunities in different settings, which is valuable in a knockout cup tie.
With Palace strong favourites and Mateta the clear spearhead, he represents a solid pick in the anytime scorer market. His recent form, combined with Millwall’s defensive profile, makes the price on him finding the net look well worth consideration.
Predicted line-ups
Crystal Palace (3-4-3): Henderson, Munoz, Lacroix, Guehi, Richards, Lerma, Wharton, Sosa, Kamada, Mateta, Esse
Millwall (4-2-3-1): Crocombe, Crama, Nisbet, Kelly, Luongo, Emakhu, Bryan, Cundle, Grant, Harding, Howland
Anything else catch the eye?
The data suggests Crystal Palace to win and under 3.5 goals is a strong angle for this tie.
Palace’s attacking numbers point to efficiency rather than volume. They average 5.33 shots inside the box per game, one of the lowest figures in the Premier League, but have created six big chances already and usually make the most of their openings.
This profile points towards narrow wins rather than high-scoring games. Their defensive control backs that up: across their league fixtures they allow just 8.33 shots in the box per game and keep opponents to 2.33 shots on target on average. Games tend to be low-event, with Palace happy to dictate tempo rather than chase high-scoring contests.
Millwall are unlikely to change that pattern. Their Championship numbers highlight strength in restricting opposition. They concede just 4.5 shots in the box per game and only two big chances in five matches, which ranks among the best defensive records in the second tier.
That resilience makes them hard to break down, even if they lack the attacking power to really trouble Premier League opponents consistently. Their attack is mid-level at best, producing 3.0 shots on target per game, which suggests they may not do enough to open the game up.
Millwall’s recent results underline the theme: three of their last five games have finished under 2.5 goals. For Palace, three of their four Premier League fixtures have ended with two goals or fewer whilst they have conceded just one goal this season. Both sides’ data points towards tight, controlled contests rather than end-to-end shootouts.
Palace’s quality should tell, especially at Selhurst Park, but Millwall’s organisation means this is unlikely to be a rout. A Palace win with under 3.5 goals looks the standout bet.
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