Cardiff City and Newport County meet on Tuesday night in the EFL Trophy at the Cardiff City Stadium, with South Wales bragging rights on the line. It’s a rare competitive meeting between the neighbours and promises a lively, hard-fought derby under the lights.
Cardiff come into the match in strong form under Brian Barry-Murphy, who has guided them to third in League One with 23 points from 11 matches. His side have been disciplined, compact, and consistent, boasting the joint-best defensive record in the division with just nine goals conceded.
They opened their Trophy campaign with a 2-0 win over Exeter City, controlling the game comfortably, and Barry-Murphy’s blend of structured possession and pressing has made Cardiff one of the hardest sides to play against. With a deep squad and solid rotation options, several fringe players will be eager to impress here.
Newport, meanwhile, are struggling in League Two, sitting bottom with just five points from 11 games. Their underlying metrics back that up as they rank 23rd for expected points (9.34) and 21st for xG ratio (37.8%), allowing 1.33 xGA per game.
They have yet to keep a clean sheet and have conceded 21 goals, the joint-most in the division. Despite that, their 5-3 defeat to Arsenal U21 in this competition showed they can threaten going forward if given space.
With the derby edge and packed stands, emotions will run high, but Cardiff’s superior quality, structure, and confidence should shine through in what promises to be a lively encounter.
How the bookies view it: No odds available
Head to Head: Bluebirds won only previous meeting
The clubs have only faced each other one recently in July 2021, when Cardiff won 2-0 in a pre-season friendly.
Players to watch: Salech to score
Yousef Salech looks a strong anytime scorer bet for Cardiff. The forward has found consistency under Brian Barry-Murphy, scoring four goals in 14 appearances across all competitions and producing a steady stream of chances.
He has taken 39 shots, averaging almost three per 90 minutes, with 14 on target, and has scored in two of his last three outings, including against Wigan and Leyton Orient.
His shot map shows regular touches inside the penalty area, and he has become Cardiff’s focal point in their 4-3-3, benefiting from the width provided by Tanatswa Nyakuhwa and Isaak Davies.
Newport’s defensive record strengthens the case as they are yet to keep a clean sheet this season and concede an average of 1.33 xGA per game. With Salech in form and facing a vulnerable back line, he looks well priced to get on the scoresheet again.
Predicted line-ups
Cardiff City (4-3-3): Turner; Kpakio, Chambers, Fish, Giles; Turnbull, Mafico, Kellyman; Nyakuhwa, Davies, Salech.
Newport County (4-2-3-1): Wright; Ogunneye, Warner, Clarke, Davies; Whitmore, Antwi, Braybrooke; Kamwa, Reindorf, Opoku.
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Cardiff to win looks one of the strongest plays in this week’s EFL Trophy slate, with the data pointing sharply in their favour.
Under Brian Barry-Murphy, Cardiff have developed a clear identity built on control and efficiency. Their home record this season is W6-D0-L2, averaging 14 shots and 5.6 on target per game, while restricting opponents to fewer than three on target.
Their defensive process is elite at this level given they have kept six clean sheets in 11 league games and their 0.92 xGA per match ranks among the best in League One. Cardiff also convert their dominance into goals, creating eight big chances in their last four fixtures and scoring 19 times this season.
Newport’s numbers tell a different story. They sit bottom of League Two, rank 23rd for xPTS, and concede an average of 1.33 xGA per match. No side in the division has kept fewer clean sheets or allowed more clear-cut chances. Their away games have been particularly leaky, with opponents averaging 5.7 shots on target and nearly two goals per match. Their 5-3 loss to Arsenal U21 in their Trophy opener underlined their defensive frailty.
This is a big occasion for Newport, but the gulf in quality, depth, and defensive stability is too wide to ignore. Cardiff’s structure and home form make them well placed to take control early, and in a fiery derby atmosphere, Barry-Murphy’s side should have too much class to let this one slip.
GambleAware