Halfway through the World Cup qualifications, both Bosnia & Herzegovina and Austria boast flawless records, as they meet to decide the group leader for the next few months.
Bosnia's performance in these qualifiers is one of the big surprises of this cycle, as the Dragons had not won in 12 consecutive fixtures between October 2023 and March 2025. But here they are in September with four wins and getting closer to the only automatic place in the World Cup. Of course, three of those games were against the underdogs in the group, San Marino and Cyprus, but they also managed a 1-0 away in Romania.
Ralf Rangnick's Austria is in a similar position but with a game in hand. On paper, they remain the favourites in this group, but they've been chasing Bosnia since the start and this upcoming match could be deciding. Austria's performance against Cyprus was definitely below their standard, which hints towards potential problems against Bosnia & Herzegovina. Cyprus produced more chances despite the 29% possession, and Austria needed a penalty to claim the three points.
How the bookies view it: Shocking away advantage
While there is a huge gap in class on paper, Austria's betting advantage is shocking, given Bosnia's recent performances. You can back the Dragons at 4/1, while Austria are available at 7/10. The draw has been priced at 13/5.
Recent head to head: More competitive than you expect
Bosnia & Herzegovina and Austria have not met in a while, with their last encounters being in the first edition of the UEFA Nations League in 2018. Back then, Bosnia achieve a 1-0 win at home and a 0-0 draw away in Vienna. Overall, both national teams have one win each in five H2Hs. Notably, all five meetings failed to produce more than two goals.
Players to watch: Age is just a number for Edin Dzeko
Both squads have players who play in top leagues or veterans like Edin Dzeko, who've been playing at the highest level for close to 20 years. And despite his age (39), he hasn't stopped scoring for either club or country. He netted two goals against San Marino last week, making it three in three games during these qualifications. Scoring against Austria will be a whole different challenge, but we believe that it is worth a shot.
Probable line-ups
Bosnia & Herzegovina: Vasilj, Burnic, Radeljic, Barisic, Gazibegovic, Hajradinovic, Tahirovic, Memic, Sunjic, Demirovic, Dzeko
Austria: Schlager, Mwene, Alaba, Lienhart, Laimer, Schlager, Seiwald, Sabitzer, Baumgartner, Schmid, Arnautovic
Anything else catch the eye?
While there is a huge gap between Austria and Bosnia in the FIFA World Rankings, we don't see such a difference in their current form and performance. In fact, we believe bookmakers made a serious mistake giving Austria 7/10.
Especially after their performance against Cyprus, we expect Austria to struggle even more against Bosnia, who have been near-flawless defensively. And given the history between the two teams, we can't expect too much action from this match. We expect less than three goals and a draw. Even 0-0 is a possibility, although we expect the match to end in 1-1.
GambleAware