Barcelona host Olympiacos at the Estadi Olimpic on Wednesday night in the Champions League, aiming to respond after their defeat to Paris Saint-Germain last time out. The Catalan side sit among the early contenders to progress, but that loss exposed a few defensive cracks, and Hansi Flick’s men will want a convincing display to reassert control of their group.
Domestically, Barca have started the season well. They have taken 19 points from their opening nine La Liga matches, with strong underlying numbers and averaging 2.2 xG per game and holding opponents to just 1.1 xGA. Their process remains dominant at home, where they have won five of the last six in all competitions. Barcelona’s attacking output has been spread around the front line, with Raphinha, Marcus Rashford, Robert Lewandowski contributing, while 18-year-old Lamine Yamal could become the youngest player in history to reach 25 Champions League appearances.
Historically, the Catalans have enjoyed full control over Greek opposition, winning all seven home UEFA ties, including a 3-1 victory over Olympiacos in this fixture back in 2017/18. That dominance is reinforced by their recent home European record with just four defeats in their last 20, scoring 51 and conceding 29.
Olympiacos arrive as runaway leaders in Greece after taking 16 points from seven games. They top the xPTS table and boast the best xG difference in the Super League at +9.5, reflecting a balanced and efficient side. However, their away record in Europe remains a major concern. They have not won a Champions League group-stage match on the road in 11 attempts and have failed to beat Spanish opposition in 16 away visits.
With Barcelona’s home record against Greek teams perfect and Olympiacos’ European travel struggles well documented, the stage looks set for another commanding night for the hosts in front of their supporters.
How the bookies view it: Host huge favourites
Barcelona are overwhelming favourites for their Champions League clash with Olympiacos at 1/5, giving them an implied probability of around 83% to win. The draw is priced at 7/1 (roughly 12%), while an Olympiacos upset sits at 14/1, or about 7%.
The goal markets point to another dominant home performance from the Catalans. Over 2.5 goals trades at 2/5, which implies a 71% chance of three or more being scored which is consistent with Barcelona’s attacking output at the Estadi Olimpic, where they have averaged more than 2.5 goals per game across their last 20 European fixtures.
Both teams to score is available at 23/20, suggesting a near-even 47% probability. That reflects Olympiacos’ recent European pattern: despite struggling away from home, they’ve only failed to score in one of their last eleven continental matches.
The market clearly expects Barcelona to control this tie and win comfortably, but the prices also suggest there’s a decent chance of an open, entertaining game.
Head to Head: Barca undefeated across the two meetings
Barcelona and Olympiacos have met only twice before in UEFA competition, during the 2017/18 Champions League group stage. Barcelona won 3-1 at home before being held to a 0-0 draw in Greece. Over those two matches, Barcelona scored three and conceded just once, maintaining control in both contests.
The first meeting at Camp Nou was one-sided, with Barcelona producing more than 13 shots and comfortably dictating play despite finishing with ten men. Two weeks later in Piraeus, Olympiacos defended deep to secure a rare clean sheet against the Spanish giants, though they offered little attacking threat.
Players to watch: Raphinha and Yamal to run the show
Raphinha to score or assist, combined with Lamine Yamal to score or assist, looks an appealing bet for Barcelona’s clash with Olympiacos.
Raphinha has started the season in strong attacking form, contributing three goals and two assists across nine appearances. He is averaging 2.9 shots per 90 minutes and 0.4 expected assists (xAG), underlining his threat as both a creator and a finisher. The Brazilian’s tendency to cut inside and shoot from range complements his link-up play with the advancing full-backs and runners through midfield. Against an Olympiacos side that concede space and struggle under pressure away from home, Raphinha should have plenty of chances to influence the score line.
Yamal, meanwhile, continues to impress at just 18. He has two goals and seven assists this season and has registered 11 shots on target from 40 total attempts, showing both intent and efficiency. His 1.9 xAG across eight appearances highlights how much of Barcelona’s attack flows through him on the right.
Both players are integral to Flick’s high-possession, high-pressing setup, and with Barcelona expected to dominate territory, backing Raphinha to score or assist and Yamal to score or assist looks a well-balanced and data-backed combination.
Predicted line-ups
Barcelona (4-2-3-1): Szczesny; Kounde, Cubarsí, Eric García, Gerard Martin; De Jong, Olmo; Yamal, Pedri, Torres; Rashford
Olympiacos (4-2-3-1): Tzolakis; Retsos, Pirola, Ortega, Costinha; Hezze, Dani García; Martins, Chiquinho, Podence; El Kaabi
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Barcelona to win, over 2.5 Barcelona goals, and Olympiacos over 0 cards combines form, data, and clear stylistic trends.
Barcelona’s attacking process at home is elite. Across their last 20 European games at the Estadi Olimpic, they have averaged 2.55 goals scored per match, surpassing two goals in 13 of those fixtures. In the current campaign, they have produced over 2.0 xG in six of their last nine competitive games and rank top three in La Liga for shots on target per 90 (6.3) and big chances created (3.4 per match). Their ball-dominant approach, typically exceeding 65% possession, forces opponents deep and invites sustained pressure which is exactly the kind of environment where Barca routinely rack up goals.
Olympiacos, meanwhile, have struggled to keep clean sheets away from home at this level. They have lost their last 11 Champions League away games and conceded at least twice in nine of those. While they have been strong domestically, that structure often collapses against higher pressing and wide overloads. In their 2-0 defeat at Arsenal, for example, they allowed 2.9 xGA from 20 shots faced.
The cards angle strengthens the bet. Olympiacos have averaged 2.4 yellow cards per European away game since the start of last season, and their aggressive midfield often commit frequent tactical fouls to slow transitions. Facing a Barcelona side that dominates territory and ball circulation, they are likely to pick up at least one caution.
This combination brings together efficiency, dominance, and discipline patterns: Barcelona’s attacking data points strongly toward three or more goals, while Olympiacos’ historical away discipline issues make their card line an appealing addition. With the gulf in quality and home advantage, the bet of Barcelona to win, over 2.5 team goals, and Olympiacos over 0 cards looks well-grounded.
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