The Carabao Cup fourth-round tie between Arsenal and Brighton & Hove Albion takes place at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday, with the Gunners extending their lead at the top of the Premier League table after a 2-0 win against Crystal Palace whilst Brighton lost 4-2 at Old Trafford.
It is a repeat of last season’s third-round meeting, which Brighton won 3-1 in North London, and Arsenal will view this as a chance to put that right.
Arsenal arrive unbeaten in their last seven home games across all competitions, combining control and consistency with depth from the bench. In the league, they sit top of the xPTS table, performing in line with elite process data averaging 2.1 xG per match while allowing just 0.8 xGA.
Mikel Arteta is likely to rotate but will still field a strong side. Players such as Myles Lewis-Skelly, Mikel Merino and Ben White offer quality in reserve, while Ethan Nwaneri and Gabriel Martinelli could feature in advanced roles.
Brighton come in under new manager Fabian Hurzeler, and his approach has maintained their trademark openness. Their matches average 3.58 total goals, with both teams scoring in landing in nine of their 11 games in all competitions this season. They rank fourth in the EFL Cup for xG (4.2) and fourth for big chances (nine) after their 6-0 win over Barnsley. However, their defensive record remains an issue as they have conceded in every Premier League away game this season and rank mid-table for xPTS due to their high-risk style.
Both sides create heavily and play on the front foot, suggesting a high-quality, attacking tie under the Emirates lights.
How the bookies view it: Gunners heavy favourites
Arsenal are strong favourites for Wednesday night’s Carabao Cup fourth-round clash with Brighton at the Emirates Stadium. The hosts are priced at 4/9, which gives them an implied win probability of around 69%. The draw at 4/1 suggests a 20% chance, while Brighton at 7/1 are given roughly an 11% likelihood of victory.
Those prices reflect Arsenal’s dominant home record and superior process data, but they also account for Brighton’s attacking threat and tendency to make games open.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is 8/13, implying a 62% chance, while both teams to score is 9/13, which equates to about a 59% probability. Bookmakers clearly expect chances at both ends, though Arsenal’s quality and second-half dominance make them firm favourites to progress.
With both sides playing expansive football and creating plenty of big chances with Brighton nine and Arsenal two in the competition the market’s read looks accurate. The most likely scenario is a high-tempo game where both sides score but Arsenal’s depth and control eventually tell.
Head to Head: Hosts hold the upper hand
Across the last 20 meetings in all competitions, Arsenal have held the upper hand with 11 wins, five draws, and four defeats. The goal tally over that period stands at Arsenal 35 – 26 Brighton, reflecting the Gunners’ greater consistency, especially at the Emirates.
Recent seasons show a balanced rivalry, though. Since the start of 2022, the sides have met eight times with Arsenal winning four, Brighton three, with one draw. That includes Brighton’s 3-1 League Cup win in North London in November 2022 and their 3-0 victory at the Emirates in May 2023, both statement results.
However, Arsenal have since reasserted control, winning 2-0 and 3-0 in the Premier League last season, before drawing 1-1 home and away in 2024/25.
Brighton’s record at the Emirates is surprisingly competitive as they have avoided defeat in five of their last nine visits in all competitions, often finding space in transition against Arsenal’s high line.
The historical data points to goals with both teams to score has landed in 11 of the last 20, and over 2.5 goals in 12 of the last 20.
Players to watch: Nwaneri to grab his chance
Ethan Nwaneri looks set for another Carabao Cup start after impressing in the previous round, where he played the full 90 minutes in Arsenal’s 2-0 win away at Port Vale. That performance highlighted why Mikel Arteta trusts him in these fixtures as he is composed in possession, intelligent with his movement, and confident in front of goal.
The 17-year-old produced three shots in that match, one on target, and regularly drifted into advanced areas to link play with the forwards. Across all competitions this season, Nwaneri has made six appearances and registered nine shots, two on target, and 0.2 xG from 257 minutes of action averaging a shot roughly every 28 minutes. His involvement is rising with each outing, and the eye test matches the numbers: he’s getting closer to his first senior goal.
Technically gifted and tactically mature, Nwaneri thrives between the lines. He’s completed 91% of his passes, delivered 12 progressive passes, and made 14 progressive carries, showing he contributes both creatively and directly. Arteta’s use of him as an attacking midfielder in the Cup means he will again be in positions to attack space around the box.
Given Brighton’s tendency to concede chances as they have allowed goals in every Premier League away match this season.
With a likely start and growing confidence, Ethan Nwaneri anytime goalscorer represents a lively angle. His sharp movement and willingness to shoot make him a genuine threat against a side that often leaves gaps between the lines.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal (4-3-3): Kepa; White, Mosquera, Hincapie, Lewis-Skelly; Eze, Norgaard, Merino; Nwaneri, Gyokeres, Trossard
Brighton & Hove Albion (4-3-3): Steele; Wieffer, Dunk, Boscagli, De Cuyper; Milner, Ayari; Gomez, Rutter, Minteh; Welbeck
Anything else catch the eye?
The combination of a goal in both halves and an Arsenal win looks a strong angle based on both teams’ process data and recent patterns.
Arsenal lead the Premier League’s second-half home table, collecting 13 of a possible 15 points after the break and scoring seven without reply between minutes 46–90. Their overall home process is elite with an average of 2.2 xG created, 16.2 shots, and 5.7 on target per match. They have scored in both halves in five of six home games, showing sustained control and attacking depth.
Brighton’s data supports the other half of the bet. They rank fourth in the away second-half table, scoring seven and conceding four, and their games rarely stay quiet for long. Under Hurzeler, their matches average 3.58 total goals, with over 2.5 landing in eight of 11 and both teams scoring hitting in nine. Brighton also rank high for big chances created (nine) in the EFL Cup but continue to concede at a high rate, allowing over 1.6 xGA per game away from home.
In xPTS terms, Arsenal’s home efficiency (+2.1 xGD differential) stands in contrast to Brighton’s volatility. Arteta’s side tend to finish matches strongly, and their bench quality often changes tight contests.
The numbers align with the market view: Arsenal are favourites around 13/20, implying roughly a 61% chance of victory, and the goals model expects activity across both halves. With Arsenal dominant late on and Brighton’s open style encouraging end-to-end play, Arsenal to win with a goal scored in each half fits both data and pattern.
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