Arsenal face Atletico Madrid on Tuesday night at the Emirates Stadium in one of the standout fixtures of the Champions League group stage. It is a meeting of two sides with different recent histories in Europe Arsenal building consistency under Mikel Arteta, and Atletico still searching for rhythm in continental competition.
The Gunners come into the game on a run of six straight wins against Spanish opposition in the Champions League, the first team in the competition’s history to achieve that. A victory here would also be their 100th in the competition proper. They have been near faultless at home in Europe, winning their last 14 UEFA group or league phase matches at the Emirates, including 11 without conceding a goal. That defensive strength underpins a process that remains among the most balanced in Europe. In their opening two group games, Arsenal have averaged 2.1 xG for and 0.6 xGA, producing 63% possession and controlling territory through their pressing and buildup play.
Domestically, Arteta’s side are also strong as they are unbeaten in the Premier League with 10 points from a possible 12 at home, and leading the league for xPTS. Bukayo Saka continues to shine, with 11 goals in his first 19 Champions League appearances. Only Harry Kane has scored more among English players at this stage of their European careers.
Atletico, by contrast, remain unpredictable away from Madrid. They have not won any of their last nine Champions League group or league phase matches against English teams (D4 L5). Despite that, they rarely fail to threaten: Simeone’s side have scored in 17 of their last 18 group matches, averaging 1.5 goals and 1.4 xG per game. They arrive in decent domestic form but have yet to find full control in Europe, where their xPTS tally lags behind their expected numbers.
How the bookies view it: Gunners favourites
Arsenal are 8/13 favourites to beat Atletico Madrid, which gives them an implied probability of around 62%. The draw at 3/1 represents 25%, while Atletico at 24/5 is roughly 17%. The market also leans toward goals, with over 2.5 goals priced at 49/50 (an implied probability of about 51%) and both teams to score at 21/20 (around 49%).
Head to Head: Spanish side have the historical results
Arsenal and Atletico Madrid have met three times in competitive and international fixtures, with the Spanish side holding the upper hand. Atletico have one win and two draws, giving them a slight 3-2 aggregate goal advantage across those matches.
The first competitive meetings came in the 2017/18 Europa League semi-final, where Atletico earned a 1-1 draw in London before winning 1-0 at home to progress to the final. Their most recent clash was a 1-1 draw in the 2018 International Champions Cup.
Overall, Arsenal have yet to beat Atletico in any competition, averaging 0.67 goals per game compared to Atlético’s one per match, with the La Liga side typically edging these tight, low-scoring encounters through defensive resilience and efficiency in front of goal.
Players to watch: Llorente shots the way forward
Marcos Llorente looks a strong pick to record 1 or more shots against Arsenal. The Atletico Madrid midfielder has been an active contributor in the final third this season, consistently pushing forward from right-back or midfield. In his last 11 club appearances, he has attempted nine shots and hit six on target, averaging just under one attempt per match despite often starting in a defensive role.
His involvement in Atletico’s transitions makes him especially likely to get a shooting opportunity in this game. Llorente averages over 80 touches per 90 minutes and completes close to 88% of his passes, showing how frequently he joins in attacking phases. His ability to carry the ball forward averaging more than 40 progressive carries per match often sees him break into shooting positions on the edge of the box.
He has taken at least one shot in eight of his 11 appearances this season, including away games at Liverpool and Mallorca where Atletico played largely on the counter. Arsenal’s high defensive line should give him similar spaces to exploit, particularly when he joins breaks from the right side.
With his mix of pace, positioning and freedom to attack from deep, Llorente is well placed to test the goalkeeper at least once on Tuesday night.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Eze, Trossard; Gyokeres
Atlético Madrid (4-4-2): Oblak; Ruggeri, Lenglet, Le Normand, Llorente; Gallagher, Barrios, Raspadori, Griezmann; Álvarez, Simeone
Anything else catch the eye?
Arsenal to win and under 4.5 goals looks a logical selection for Tuesday’s Champions League tie with Atletico Madrid. The Gunners’ home record in Europe and their control-based attacking style point towards a measured victory rather than a high-scoring game.
Arsenal have won 14 straight UEFA group or league phase matches at home, 11 of those to nil. Their average home xGA across that run is just 0.55, and they have allowed fewer than 10 shots in 13 of those 14 matches. In this season’s group stage, they have conceded only five shots on target in two matches and lead the competition for xPTS. Arteta’s side generate consistent attacking pressure without overexposing themselves defensively, producing 15.5 shots per game but conceding just 7.0.
Atletico are competitive but conservative travellers in Europe. They have lost 11 of their last 20 Champions League away matches and conceded 35 goals in that stretch. Despite scoring in 17 of their last 18 group fixtures, they rarely create volume aa they have averaged only 9.8 shots per game and 1.3 big chances in this phase of the competition. Simeone’s approach away from home is built on structure and transition moments rather than open exchanges.
Across Arsenal’s last 10 Champions League home matches, nine have finished with under 4.5 goals, and the same is true for 18 of Atlético’s last 20 away in the competition. The underlying data supports that pattern: Arsenal’s combined expected total per home game sits at 2.8, Atletico’s away at 2.6.
With Arsenal’s balance between attack and control, and Atletico’s record of disciplined away performances, the bet aligns well with both teams’ profiles. Arsenal are clear favourites, but a scoreline like 2-0 or 3-1 feels far more likely than a wide-margin result.
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