RAFA NADAL is now a shadow of the player whose explosive power dominated tennis and the 14-times Grand Slam winner could be heading for another demoralising defeat today.
Nadal struggled past one his former ballboys Wu Di yesterday, having his serve broken four times by the world No.230, and faces a much sterner test against Vasek Pospisil in their China Open second-round clash.
I see our regular tennis contributor Ad has already flagged up Pospisil for the win and I have to agree. Best price is now 3-1 at Coral and bet365 and I'll be on that having seen Nadal struggle badly this year against opponents he used to beat with ease. Bet365's 2-1 for over 2.5 sets also looks decent value.
Pick of the women's China Open matches today sees title favourite Angelique Kerber chalked up at 31-40 by Sportingbet in her battle with Caroline Wozniacki, the 23-18 outsider (Marathonbet).
At the Rugby World Cup there's a key match in Scotland's Pool B with South Africa taking on USA – where victory for the Springboks will see them win the group – while Namibia face Georgia in Pool C.
Let's hear your sporting tips and chat and good luck with your bets.
In December 2020 we sadly 
Good stuff Scott. My only worry is Pospisil’s mettle (and possibly backhand!) but hopefully he can bring a good enough level to the table to take advantage of a vulnerable Rafa. Never rule out Rafa, but a gamble that has to be taken in my opinion.
Also going to have a small go on Falconi d Muguruza @ a similar price. Mug retired at the weekend with fatigue/ an ankle problem, snd despite picking up her game prior to that has been a bit wobbly in recent times. Falconi is capable, she needs to bring her good stuff though. Beaten a few good players already this week so she has a bit of momentum going into this.
Having looked at my most fancied games for the weekend, its not biased in the slightest but the best match up from what I can see is the Packers at home to the Rams, with the rested Patriots heading to Dallas the next favourable.
Despite the Rams being my bogey team last weekend beating division rivals on the road in Phoenix, they took a big dent in their defense with leading tackler Alec Ogletree needing ankle surgery and will likely miss the rest of the season. The Cardinals had twice the amount of 1st downs but turnovers were the killers and were unlucky not to get the rub of the green themselves on a few calls but ultimately lost.
This will be the first of two home games for Green Bay with a visit from the Chargers next week, but Sundays visit from the Rams is more important as its an NFC match up.
Aaron Rodgers has been dominant over St Louis in his career with a 3-0 record. Last time they played was in 2012 in a 30-20 win for Green Bay in St Louis. The last h2h at the Lambeau was a 24-3 win in 2011. The Packers extended their home record to now 11 straight wins at the Lambeau with their last loss coming against the 49ers in January 2014 in the NFC Championship. The Pack out gun St Louis in every category that I research other than being tied in sacks for and against. Already coming up against a strong pass rush in Kansas City and Seattle at home, Rodgers should be able to take care of another strong front end in the comfort of his own home. The only worry Green Bay have on offense is receiver Davante Adams who has missed the last two games. The Rams will give it a good go, but ultimately, Carson Palmer is no Aaron Rodgers and the Rams loss to Kirk Cousins in Washington by 14 points makes this seem an easy match up.
I think the -9 is doable but will be taking an alternative spread with the Patriots in Dallas, with Tom Brady and co having 2 weeks to prepare for their game against the Cowboys who will still be without Dez Bryant and Tony Romo. Brandon Weeden lost a few more targets in New Orleans Sunday evening with Lance Dunbar tearing his ACL, Brice Butler pulling his hamstring on his first caught pass is also questionable, with linebacker Sean Lee questionable after going through the concussion protocol but is expected to play (not sure how that works as Luke Kuechly has missed the Panthers last two games with a concussion so that remains to be seen. They will however welcome the returns of linebacker Rolando McClain and defensive end Greg Hardy. McClain was suspended four games for violating the substance abuse policy during the offseason while Hardy was suspended four games for a domestic violence incident stemming from 2014 and subsequently signed with the Cowboys in free agency. That’s good news for the Cowboys as both are extremely good on their day, but both might take some time to get back into the swing of things. The Pats have been fairly good at keeping Brady upright though only giving up 6 sacks over their first 3 games (one of those games against one of the top front ends in the Buffalo Bills who only got to Brady twice) so getting to him will be no easy task, especially with the coaching genius that is Bill Belichick who always has the ultimate master plan to win, and the Cowboys only racking up 6 sacks themselves over their four games played. Think it’ll be closer than the opening line suggests as the Pats have given up needless points in the second half (51 second half points compared to 13 in the first half over their 3 game spell) But Belichick would have made it clear over these two weeks that its not to happen again and a straight up win for the rested Patriots is acceptable in my opinion.
NFL – Week 5
Sunday Double
Green Bay Packers -6.5 – 6:00PM
New England Patriots ML – 9:25PM
0.99/1 @ 365 – 10 points
Hya Jordan thanks for the write up and the tips mate all are appreciated.
Almost tempted to chuck another 10 points on it if I’m honest. Will see what the lines do in the week.
ATP Tennis a joke this week. Every bet a loser in China. I’m sticking to team sports.
where is attila,ad, jordan?
TENNIS
WTA Beijing
Round 3
AGNIESZKA RADWANSKA vs MADISON KEYS
Madison keys Handicap- +2.5 @ 10/11 – 3 points
Madison Keys to win 11/8- 2 points
Thanks and gud luck
– T. Ito @ $8.50 to beat Wawrinka (he beat him 2-0 at the same tournament last year at same odds).
– C. Wozniaki @ $2.25 to beat Kerber (she beat her a 2-1 a couple weeks ago at same odds)
@ AD – Falconi dropped like a lead balloon. But hopefully pospisil can sort Rafa out.
I really think Ito is worth a punt at ridiculous odds after he convincingly knocked out the Waw exactly 12 months ago. If Ito wins the 1st set I might just cash out tho depending on what the offer is.
Falconi….useless! That’s the danger with her. She can be pretty rubbish at times. Garbine has presumably recovered from last week then. She’s a big danger if if so. But if Ivanovic keeps playing like she did against Venus (big if!) she’s got a great chance
Btw – my reasoning behind Wozniaki is that whilst Kerber has all the h2h results on clay & grass, Wozniaki owns the record between the two on hard + the fact she recently beat her in Tokyo.
Tipsultan- decent looking bets. All it needs is keys to turn up and those are winners. The only worry is she switches off for too long. She’s got this is she’s on it
I’m relying on Radwanska as the final leg of a treble I did with Cilic & Simon. Think Aggie’s had enough recovery time from her tile win & subsequent 1st round knock out to be back at her best again
Im surprised of the odds on Radwanska, she OWNS the h2h, better ranked, more reliable player & paying $1.65. I wouldn’t touch Keys for anything less than $3.00 to be honest…bookies have her a bit too short (what I call a ‘trap’)
What would be a solid evens bet on the tennis today guys? Looking for something to back but I’m useless with tennis!
Shotty,
You could double Ferrer 2-0 & Becker 2-0 (should be around evens)
Been on the challengera lately and sticking with it, a treble today.
Struff 4/11
Arguello 2/7
Cervantes/vervoot 4/6
Cheers Attila, I couldn’t find Becker anywhere? But I’ve took Ferrer 2-0 and Radwanska win after reading your waiting on her for a treble!
I also like Suarez-Navarro to beat Bacsinsky @ EVENS (wouldn’t call this ‘solid’ tho, will go very close)
Ferret is walking a tightrope to get this 1st set. shotty – I’m sorry if it goes ass up
Btw – ITO is holding his own against Wawrinka if any1 is on him with me
And just as I say that Ito gets broken, lol, jinxed him
Christ Keys is useless… What’s with these WTA players retiring as soon as they lose a set… Once again, retirement whilst I’m on a winner…that’s a void, argh
Shotty – I hope your bookie pays out as 1st set was completed (some bookies void, some pay). Ferrer just got the 1st set so my ‘Solid’ evens bet looks good for ta :-)
So glad keys retired there and my over 20.5 games was voided, she did not look good at all!
I’m getting on this today as a trixie and I’m very confident.
Suarez Navarro v bacsinszky over 18.5 games
Kerber v wozniacki over 18.5 games
Pospisil + 1.5 sets
Treble odds are a tasty 13/5!
Was a close call with Ferrer glad he managed to seal the 1st set! I’m with bet365 so not sure what will happen with the other game doesn’t say push or win yet Attila
Scratch that just seen its a push, ah well hopefully can put the Ferrer winnings onto something else
Any tips for the incoming games lads?
Any advice on betting systems for instance the point system a lot of people use on this site.
Yeh I know mate – he’s usually very good at getting the break back at the death, lol.
Ito just broke Wawrinka in the 2nd…up 4-2, get in there! Keep it up now buddy
TENNIS
WTA Beijing
Round 3
AGNIESZKA RADWANSKA vs MADISON KEYS
Player retired
Madison keys Handicap- +2.5 @ 10/11 – 3 points- VOID
Madison Keys to win 11/8- 2 points- VOID
Thanks and gud luck
Jonhom – those 2 WTA matches are both set at 21.5 games, nowhere has 18.5 that I can see.
Attila- I use 888sport, they are really good for the over/under games markets.
Ito is sti in this! Got 1 break back and fighting for the 2nd break now…he’ll take Wawrinka down to the wire.
Good old predictable James Ward.
CRICKET
Australia DOmestic
Matador BBQs One day Cup
New South Wales Vs South Australia
Top Team Bowler
Starc( New South Wales) 15/8 – 2 Points
Most match Sixes
New South Wales- 5/6 — 3 points
Gud luck
Attila- kerber v woz is something I find it v hard indeed to pick a winner from. Woz disappointing recently and kerber can go missing. By all accounts the German was v good v cibulkova, but nearly let a 5-1 lead slip in second set. Woz nearly dropped the first set before steaming through. No idea what will happen. Overs seems inevitable
Bacsinsky looks shot, 5 straight games to Navarro. Get in
Wozniacki is terrible!! Getting made to look like an absolute amateur, doesn’t deserve to even be on the court today, what a let down.
Cheers Tickety.
Aye Right, my betting bank per month in football is £200 (20 points). Tend to extend that on the NFL/NBA as there’s a higher chance of winning in my opinion. It all depends what you can afford but depending on your stakes and bank, a point can be anything from £10 to £5 or £1. It’s ultimately down to the punter.
Hi gents, any thoughts on the south africa vs USA rugby today? Thinking of going USA +41 @ evens. Cheers
Humble Tipper, I’m with you on the USA big handicap, South Africa will win but as long as they score 4 quick tries to grab a bonus point I’m sure they will ease up and take a few players off as soon as they can, I expect a quick 1st half then a steady 2nd!
I’ve took the USA handicap along with Namibia over 13.5 team points, they’ve scored a decent amount of points in there games against better teams than Georgia too, I don’t think they will win but I think they can cover the points ! Makes a nice double
Cheers shotty i am on that double, namibia owe me because they cost me an acca by scoring a try against NZ. Gonna have a little nibble on SA to win outright as well
The Springboks have had their fingers burnt already in this tournament, and that may not be a bad thing long-term for their progression in this competition. It has seen them renew their focus, and they’ve looked in decent nick ever since, outclassing both Samoa and Scotland in the two matches since.
The game against USA is the easiest in the pool without question, and it’s fair to suggest that, even if the South Africans rest players for this game in anticipation of the quarter-final (which is likely to be a tough assignment against Wales), those that are brought in are going to be fighting for a starting place.
Given that I think the bookies have it about right at -39
I want to bet on it but for me it’s a coin flip at the line that’s set.
Will maybe look for value on the HT market as I think SA will want to put this to bed as early as possible
Brian, I’m not sure about the handicap betting but South Africa have made only 2 changes from the side that beat Scotland.
Astros @ Yankees
Top 1st run- YES @ 3.8 (fun bet) *lost*
Astros win 3-0 and Astros scored in the 2nd and not the first.
The Springboks have had their fingers burnt already in this tournament, and that may not be a bad thing long-term for their progression in this competition. It has seen them renew their focus, and they’ve looked in decent nick ever since, outclassing both Samoa and Scotland in the two matches since.
The game against USA is the easiest in the pool without question, and it’s fair to suggest that, even if the South Africans rest players for this game in anticipation of the quarter-final (which is likely to be a tough assignment against Wales), those that are brought in are going to be fighting for a starting place.
Given that I think the bookies have it about right at -39
I want to bet on it but for me it’s a coin flip at the line that’s set.
Will maybe look for value on the HT market as I think SA will want to put this to bed as early as possible
Chief, some crazed fool has dropped Andrew Luck in my league, do I trade him Tyrod Taylor? I’m guessing its the shoulder injury but I think he’ll be playing Friday.
I would snag him mate, better on your bench than starting for someone else. I lost my first game last week, Brady was on a bye for me and the guy I faced and blooming Freeman and Ivory as his starting RBs.
The Springboks have put out a full strength team against the Yanks today so I would definitely be looking at the Boks to cover the 1st half handicap of -17.5.
Once the game is wrapped up then I’m sure they’ll bring on the subs shortly after half-time so it’s possible the US might cover the full-time handicap. The Boks will then be hoping for the Aussies to beat the Welsh so they get Wales in the Quarter-finals and by the looks of it it’s going to be a NZ vs SA semi-final which will be epic!
Anyone watching Rafa v Vasek? Is Rafa playing well or Vasek bad? Or just even Stevens?
Only saw glimpses. Pospisil har chances but he’s not got the nerves to take them.
AD watching it now,
Niether of them playing that good,
Pospisil making some silly basic errors.
Not watching but surprised he hasn’t managed to break nadal. Guessing his backhand is getting bullied
No darts thread today?
Been making more from darts than I have football!
Sock to beat Nadal it is. Mettle shouldn’t be a problem there. Hoping Jack can recoup my stake and rake in some profit!
GRAND PRIX DARTS
These are my selections for today:
Singles:
Van der Voort vs Jenkins, Van der Voort win 11/10 B365 **NAP**
Suljovic vs Whitlock, highest checkout Suljovic 10/11 B365
Anderson vs White, over 7.5 180’s 10/11 Co-ral **NB**
Double:
Thornton vs Pipe, Thornton win
Anderson vs White, over 7.5 180’s
15/8 C0-ral
Good luck all
Tonight’s mlb
5 innings run line
Cubs -1.5 @ 3.4 (fun bet)
I think the Cubs are gonna take it tonight.
The last time the Cubs lost in regular season was against the Pirates, however their next game was also against the Pirates, where Cubs won 4-0 and Arrieta went 7 innings for 1 hit.
The Cubs went on to win the rest of their games, while the Pirates were a bit less reliable.
Cole is the Pirates ace but he’s gonna be hard to beat Arrieta, who’s posted a 0.75 era since the all star break.
So a full team out by the springboks Mr F
That adds to the reasoning to stay away from that handicap as I was thinking a few changes but looks like they’re leaving nothing to chance.
Perhaps like Gunner said they might take the foot of the gas 2nd half – just don’t feel confident picking either side on that spread tonight.
Def think the HT alternative line is to be looked at for this one.
Afternoon Guys World Grand Prix Darts
The opening game sees Robert Thornton take on Justin Pipe and despite Pipe’s slow methodical play I cant see anything but a comfortable win for Thornton. These two met here last year in round 1 and Thornton won 2-0. Pipe only averaged 84.97 in round one compared to 96.98 by Thornton. Thornton also checked out at 67% so Pipe has to up his game by around 10pts. I cant see it and I am taking Thornton minus 1.5 on the handicap. It is 11/10 Coral.
Vincent Van Der Voort caused the big upset when he beat Phil Taylor. He was 7pts behind Taylor on the averages and his checkouts was 33%, the key was Taylor missed several key doubles including a double 16 for a 105 to win the match. VVV doubling in was at 55% and he will need that against Jenkins tonight.
Jenkins was doubling in at 45% and he holds a 12-8 H2H record, although has lost the last 3 to VVV however they haven’t met this year. This looks tough to call but I expect a long game. Two of the Three sets that Jenkins played went to the 5th leg and both sets VVV won went to the 5th leg, so O17.5 total legs must have a real chance at 1/1 Coral. They both hit 4 maximums each in round one and the longer format and hopefully plenty of legs means we could see O6.5 maximums especially if Jenkins has tightened up his scoring, he had too many loose darts going into the 5 and 1 bed. It pays 1/1 Skybet.
It could be a good night for the two Scottish players and Betvictor are playing 11/10 Thornton & Anderson both to win.
THORNTON -1.5 SETS TO BEAT PIPE 11/10
VVV – JENKINS O17.5 TOTAL LEGS 1/1
VVV – JENKINS O6.5 TOTAL 180s 1/1
Good luck if your having a bet
Ouch. I tried getting Freeman but somebody had him higher priority. I’ve taken Luck for Taylor and dropped Bryant for the Panthers defense despite being on a bye they have good match ups coming (Seattle, Philly). I’m 2-2 at the mo.
NHL is back tonight. I watched a few games the tail end of last season and real enjoyed watching it. I’m no expert but I’ve had a good read of the previews and I’m having a small stake on this single and double.
Canadians (in regular time) @ 2.05
Canadians win (inc OT and pens)
Blackhawks and Rangers under 6 goals
Double @ 2.36
Bit of a disappointing day really. Should have topped pospisil on handicap and all would be well.
I’ll take Sock tomorrow @ 2/1. A bit shorter than I guessed it would be which may bode well.
Jordan, any tips for the pre-season basketball tonight or is that a big betting no-no?
Singles:
Van der Voort vs Jenkins, Van der Voort win 11/10 B365 **NAP** WON
Suljovic vs Whitlock, highest checkout Suljovic 10/11 B365 LOST (Suljovic missed his double for a 140)
Anderson vs White, over 7.5 180′s 10/11 Co-ral **NB** WON
Double:
Thornton vs Pipe, Thornton win
Anderson vs White, over 7.5 180′s
15/8 C0-ral WON
– Chicago Cubs WIN & Under 6.5 runs @ $3.64 (has now dropped to around $3.00)
– Montreal Candians -0.5 @ $2.00 (NHL)
@ Merv – I’ve actually done pretty well on the preseason so far (havnt posted cos it is a bit risky). Fade the teams who made playoffs last season if their opponent has a decent spread, and play unders if total points are set at or above 200 points or so.
From 6 bets in last couple days I’ve won 4 (might be luck, but that’s the strategy I’ve done).
NHL Bet for Tonight
4 Fold @ 6.57/1 (£5)
Montreal Canadiens ML
Los Angeles Kings ML
Calgary Flames ML
Chicago Blackhawks ML
Novice at NHL so bet just for interest through the night
Don’t think I’ll be up to watch Rangers Vs Blackhawks but if you’re in the UK, premier sports are letting you watch it for free I think.
I’m watching the canadiens on sportsnet, the game should have started 15 minutes ago. So depending on how long this intro goes on I’ll probably be off to bed after the game, if I don’t fall asleep on the sofa first.
Another night of shocks at the tournaments of upsets. Anyone who saw 3-0 wins for Suljovic and VVV well done. I fancied VVV over a long distance but he blew Jenkins away.
THORNTON -1.5 SETS TO BEAT PIPE 11/10 WON
VVV – JENKINS O17.5 TOTAL LEGS 1/1 LOST
VVV – JENKINS O6.5 TOTAL 180s 1/1 LOST
Refs done well to spot that. I was too busy cursing how the ball didn’t go in. Could be bad for Montreal as the Bulls could have been a couple up before that incident.