The National League Play-Offs reach a crucial stage this week with two high-stakes semi-final clashes that will determine who takes a step closer to promotion.
Forest Green Rovers host Southend United at The New Lawn, where the home side’s formidable record meets a Southend team buoyed by a dramatic eliminator win but struggling for consistent form. Meanwhile, York City face Oldham Athletic in a fiercely contested tie at the LNER Community Stadium. York will be aiming to make home advantage count, while Oldham, one of the division’s bigger names – look to convert momentum into a place at Wembley. With both matches finely poised, there is value to be found across the markets as four clubs battle for a shot at returning to the Football League.
York City vs Oldham Athletic
York City face Oldham Athletic in the National League Play-Off Semi-Final at the LNER Community Stadium. York come into the game with one of the league’s strongest home records with W16-D2-L2. They have scored in 21 of those games, kept 11 clean sheets, and are averaging 2.48 goals scored and only 0.87 conceded per home match. Over 65% of their home games have gone over 2.5 goals. Only Barnet scored more goals at home and only three sides conceded fewer on their own patch.
They have scored two or more goals in 15 matches and remain unbeaten at home against top-half opposition, with a record of W3-D3-L0. Only Barnet have averaged more shots on target at home. That said, York have only won three of their last seven at home and have conceded in five of those, suggesting a slight dip in defensive sharpness.
Oldham arrive off the back of a big 4–0 win over Halifax in the quarter-finals, but that result masks some concerning trends. Without that game, they have won just six of their last 19 league matches, one of which was against bottom-placed Ebbsfleet. Their away record reads W8-D10-L5, but they have not won in their last seven on the road (four draws, three losses) and have conceded in six of those seven.
They have kept six clean sheets away, four of which have come against sides sitting 14th and below, whilst they have also failed to score in four. Against top-half teams on the road, they have won just twice in eleven matches (W2-D6-L3), with both teams scoring in seven. Across the entire season, home and away, they have only managed six wins against teams in the top half of the table.
The two teams have met twice this season. In January, York won 2–0 away at Boundary Park. The most recent meeting ended in a 1–1 draw in York. On current form and statistical evidence, York have the upper hand, particularly at home. Oldham are capable of dangerous spells, but their inconsistency on the road and poor record against stronger teams puts them at a disadvantage. A narrow York win looks the most likely outcome.
Best Bet: York City to win and over 1.5 goals at 2.20 with Bet365
Forest Green Rovers vs Southend Utd
Forest Green Rovers welcome Southend United to The New Lawn with a place at Wembley on the line. Having secured a third-place finish in the regular season, Forest Green earned direct passage to the semi-final and come into the tie well-rested. Southend, meanwhile, arrive on the back of an emotionally charged 4-3 extra-time victory over Rochdale in the eliminator. Southend scored four times against Rochdale from just four shots on target, whilst they conceded seven in the tie.
Forest Green's home form this season has been nothing short of outstanding with W15-D7-L1, they have made The New Lawn a fortress. They have kept 10 clean sheets on home soil and failed to score just once—a 0-0 draw against champions Barnet. Only Barnet conceded fewer goals at home, and only six sides scored more. Against fellow top-seven sides at home, Forest Green are unbeaten with W3-D3-L0, a stark contrast to their away record in those fixtures where their record is W0-D3-L3. Their only home loss came against Gateshead in a match that proved an anomaly amid a dominant run, during which they have kept three clean sheets in their last four home games.
Southend, by contrast, arrive in Nailsworth with concerning league form despite their recent knockout heroics. They have won just twice in their last 10 away matches inside 90 minutes, keeping just one clean sheet during that run and losing twice. Their form over the longer term does not inspire much more confidence, with only five wins in their last fifteen league outings. On the road against top-half opposition, they have managed just two wins from eleven attempts, with six draws and three defeats.
The last meeting between these sides finished 2-2 in March, reflecting the close nature of the rivalry, but Forest Green’s overall consistency – especially at home – marks them as clear favourites. Southend’s comeback win against Rochdale showed they can be dangerous, particularly in transition, but unless they shore up defensively, they will struggle to contain a Forest Green side that’s clinical and difficult to break down at home.
With their rest advantage, tactical discipline, and home record, Forest Green should have enough to see off a Southend side that’s running on emotion more than form. The Shrimpers have the spirit to make it interesting, but Forest Green’s balance and structure give them the edge in what’s likely to be a measured, professional performance from the home side.
Best Bet: Forest Green Rovers 0.0AH at 1.80 with Bet365
Upcoming match previews and betting tips
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