The National League play-offs kick off this week with two high-stakes eliminators as four former Football League clubs battle for a place in the semi-finals.
On Wednesday night, Oldham Athletic host Halifax Town at Boundary Park in a clash between two sides with contrasting strengths—Oldham’s home firepower faces Halifax’s defensive discipline.
Then on Thursday, Rochdale welcome Southend United to Spotland, where the visitors' strong record against top opposition could give them the edge. With promotion just three games away, both ties promise intensity, tight margins, and potential value for bettors.
Here's a detailed breakdown of each fixture, including stats, form, head-to-heads, and betting angles.
Oldham vs Halifax
Oldham Athletic welcome FC Halifax Town to Boundary Park and the underlying stats suggest the home side are well-placed to progress.
Oldham’s home form has been solid all season, losing just twice at Boundary Park – both defeats coming against the league’s top two. Against top-seven opposition overall, the Latics have impressed, posting a record of W3-D5-L3. They are unbeaten at home against teams outside the top two in that group, including a 2-0 victory over Halifax in March.
By contrast, Halifax have struggled against the division’s best. Their record against top-seven teams reads W2-D5-L5, with no wins in six away attempts (W0-D3-L3). They have also been poor in front of goal on the road, failing to score in five away matches while only six of their 23 games away from The Shay went over 2.5 goals.
Oldham’s matches at home have been slightly more open, with 10 of 23 seeing over 2.5 goals, but they remain defensively sound – nine home clean sheets and just two games without scoring. They have also kept more consistency up front, failing to score in only 8 of 46 total games (just two at home).
Play-off ties are often cagey, and Halifax’s pragmatic style may force a tight battle. However, Oldham’s greater attacking threat, superior head-to-head record, and ability to control games at home give them the edge.
This bet balances Oldham’s strong home form with the likelihood of a low-scoring game. Just 10 of their 46 league games featured over 4.5 goals, and for Halifax it was even fewer. A 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1 win for the hosts fits the trend and offers better value than the match result alone. It’s a sharp angle for punters expecting the Latics to progress with discipline and control.
- Best Bet: Oldham win and under 4.5 goals at 2.1 with Skybet
Rochdale vs Southend Utd
Rochdale face Southend United at Spotland on Thursday in a decisive National League play-off clash, with both sides targeting promotion to League Two. Rochdale finished fourth and earned home advantage, but recent form and key statistics suggest Southend may have the upper hand.
Rochdale ended the season with three wins in five, including a 5-1 home win over Hartlepool and a 1-0 victory at Solihull. However, a 2-0 loss at Braintree in their final game and a poor record against top-seven sides raise questions. They have won just once in 12 games against the league’s best, drawing four and losing seven, and they failed to score in eight of those matches.
Southend, by contrast, come into the tie unbeaten in four, with back-to-back clean sheets and dominant wins over Wealdstone (3-0) and Ebbsfleet (4-0). Their record against the top seven reads W4-D5-L3, with away defeats only to champions Barnet and second-placed York. They also earned four points from Rochdale this season – winning 1-0 at Spotland and drawing 1-1 at Roots Hall.
Rochdale’s home record remains strong – 13 wins in 23 games, with 65% seeing over 2.5 goals – but Southend’s away form is equally solid. They have lost just six times on the road, with only 39% of those matches seeing over 2.5 goals. Given Rochdale’s struggles in high-level contests and Southend’s ability to rise to the occasion, the visitors look the value side.
- Best Bet: Southend draw no bet (DNB) at 1.91 with Boylesports
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