After another clean sweep on the selections including a 10/3 and a 7/4 which I didn't count as an official pick in the write up with Swift finding the endzone last week I'm looking to Week 7 to keep up the good form. It's a rough week on the whole with 3 or 4 of the games un-betable on their gigantic spreads. There will be value around, but it's a rough one this week.

NFL Week 7

There really are a few horrible games in prospect according to the spread, with 5 of the earlier games at least a TD apart.

Best Spread

So with limited lines that I would want to use I'm down to 2 or 3 to choose from. The Ravens have dominated the Bengals in recent years but I think this Bengals team is a lot better, I still think the Ravens may cover the 6.5, but if they Bengals are as good as I think then it might be a little closer.

There's a huge spread I'm weirdly interested in, but taking the worst team in the league to do anything against the unbeaten team probably isn't sensible. My main reason for thinking the Texans cover the 18 points is that the Cardinals are playing the Packers on Thursday night and might ease up or rest players towards the end of the game. It still needs the Texans to actually do something though which is a risk.

So I'll go for the Eagles getting 2.5 against the Raiders.

The Raiders got a bit of a bounce from Gruden leaving them last week as they beat the Broncos with deep shots to Ruggs, Edwards and Waller. This week though they go up against a well organised Eagles defense which does well keeping players in front of them, as well as getting pressure up front where they should beat a poor Raiders offensive line.

The Eagles are tough for me to call on offense but Jalen Hurts seems to be able to move the ball mainly with Devonta Smith, as well as running for first down and scores each week, he's scored 4 in his last 2 games on the ground. I really want them to get Miles Sanders involved as they don't seem to have bothered using the run game so far this year.

This is mainly backing the defensive line of the Eagles to be better than the offensive line of the Raiders, so I'm happy to go for them getting points on the road.

Best spread – Eagles +2.5 (most)

I think I'm going to give Totals a miss again this week, no point going back to an area I've proven unable to judge so far this year. There's a few unders I wrote about in my full previews but nothing I'm betting on.

Best TD Scorers

After a couple of nice wins last week I'm very tempted to take Ricky Seals-Jones again as he's priced around 3/1 once more, after playing every snap in last weeks loss to the Chiefs. He's on the field, he's running routes and he'll get redzone chances.

My lower priced guy this week though is Darrell Henderson for the Rams. He's a standout price at Bet365 where he's 5/6 compared to the 4/9 available elsewhere.

It's a big spread and he's the main running back so I'm expecting him to get a lot of carries. He's scored in all but one game this year, so getting near evens is good enough for me to take him in this one.

For someone at a bigger price it's national tight end day, or week, or something promoting that position and there's a few at decent prices with Hunter Henry around 10/3 and Big Mo Alie-Cox around 5/1 to find the endzone this week. Henry has 3 games in a row with a score while Mo scored last week on his only reception.

But I think I'll land on Kyle Pitts to score for the second game in a row at bigger than 2/1 on Paddypower. He's available at 11/5 on there, and they're coming off their bye week taking on a Dolphins team who decided not to take theirs after playing in London. The linebacker group for the Dolphins hasn't been good this year, if they bring back Howard and Jones at cornerback then Pitts should get easier coverage in the middle of the field.

Best TD bets; Henderson 5/6, Pitts 11/5

Best Player props.

There's another tight end who most of NFL Twitter are on this week with Mike Gesicki still lined in the early 40s for receiving yards this week. He's topped that line in 4 games in a row, so it would be more surprising if he stays under against a terrible Falcons defense.

I think I'm looking at the longest reception market again, it's either Ja'marr Chase who's topped his line in every game but plays against the best defense he's faced all year with a long of 26.5 or the speedster on the other side of the ball, and that's where I'm going for this one.

Marquise Brown is down at 23.5 for longest reception, he's gone over that line in every game this season, except last week where he would have done had he not dropped a TD. I like the Bengals defense, but I'm taking the lower line of the two guys here.

Best player prop; Marquise Brown longest reception over 23.5 – 10/11 (365/Hills)

  1. nflfan 1 month ago

    Great write up and well done last week Adam
    Struggling myself to find a bet to post but here goes
    Packers ml
    Patriots ml
    Rams – 6.5
    Cardinals – 7.5
    Acc pays 15/8
    Good luck 🍀

    Sky bet again late one small bet 9/1 all teams in the 9.05 and 9 .25 games to score 2 touch downs
    Shot in the dark but 🤷‍♂️ 🍀🍀

  2. harleec7 1 month ago

    Has there ever been a week with such large spreads?

    Treble for me this week.

    Patriots -7 vs the Jets
    Falcons -1.5 vs Dolphins
    Titans ML vs Chiefs

    8.84/1 on 365

    • Will5114 1 month ago

      Followed you on this. Great stuff. Cheers. 👍

    • harleec7 1 month ago

      @will5114 falcons nearly blew it late on, how they went 27-14 up and nearly choked it.

  3. Inches 1 month ago

    I agree with you nfl fan so keeping it simple. I done your bet and adams. My own is this.

    Ravens -6
    Eagles +3
    Colts +3.5
    Packers -8.5
    Not overly confident so just had 20 on it.
    GL everyone

  4. nflfan 1 month ago

    Good luck inches and everyone having a bet 🍀

  5. TDTips 1 month ago

    Seems crazy you can have 163 yards and not score a TD…

  6. nflfan 1 month ago

    Seen that Adam pardon the pun but that is the Pitt’s
    Main bet acc up from me
    Small bet down
    Still a profit 🍀

  7. nflfan 1 month ago

    Well done harleec7
    Nice bet

    • harleec7 1 month ago

      Cheers mate, little bit closer than I imagined with the Falcons!

  8. harleec7 1 month ago

    Some early spread lines I like the look of.

    Bengals vs Jets -9.5, bengals made a statement and their offense has been firing. Can’t see how the Jets maintain pace.

    Buccaneers vs Saints -4.5, Tampa are cruising and this Saints team has been inconsistent all year.

    Cowboys vs Vikings -1.5, Cousins is untrustworthy in mid tier games let alone prime time.

    New England +5.5 or ML vs Chargers, My New England bias might kick in here, but our win vs the Jets felt like a statement of intent from Bill and the Ravens showed some very strong cues on how to make the Chargers average.

    Packers vs Cardinals any points over that’s close to high 40’s or low 50’s. This game work require Rodgers magic.

    • Inches 1 month ago

      Looks good mate. I’ll be on

  9. Inches 1 month ago

    Harleec well done mate 👏 👍
    Nfl fan I had more money on your bet than my own lol so thank you. Some run your on! I’m glad I didn’t do much this weekend as it was mental tbh. Great going lads.

  10. nflfan 1 month ago

    Glad we can all help each more brains 🧠 are better than one
    If we take everyone’s knowledge and pool it we have a chance against the bookies 🙏🍀

    • harleec7 1 month ago

      100% for what it’s worth as of right now the NFC games are pretty easy to call, the top 6 best records in the league are all NFC.

      AFC is a tight unit this year, I expect the Bengals to tail off slightly soon as well.

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