Chiefs @ Patriots u49 – 1.91 (general)
I think the Chiefs probably win this one, but it's stupid to back against the Pats no matter how poor they've looked on offense this season. They're a defense-first team this year and will probably find a way to shut down the Chiefs offense. That offense hasn't been explosive recently but with Mahome back there, there's always a chance. They're without both Williams' in the backfield, so likely McCoy and rookie Darwin Thompson.
The Chiefs have a decent pass defense now though and should be able to slow down Edelman who is the only real threat for the Pats this year, they can be run on though so should be a lot of Sony Michel. BUT The run game has been poor for the Pats and if they're trailing Michel will barely see the field.
Think this will be a low scoring affair and the line is set pretty high.
Alexander Mattison anytime – 3.75 (365)
Dalvin Cook went out last week with a shoulder injury and didn't return, he's saying he's good to go, but why pound him into the ground when you're 13 point favourites at home? It makes much more sense to use his backup more and Mattison has shown he's good on the ground this season when he's been used. Admittedly he's only scored once this year, but as I expect increased usage from him tonight I think nearing 3/1 is a decent price for him.
Aaron Jones anytime TD – 1.67 (Spreadex) 1.61-ish elsewhere
Jones has scored in all but one of the Packers home games this season and with them being heavy favourites in this one they should be able to run the ball and get into positions to let him have the goal-line carries. He was stopped at the one at least once last week. He's on 14 for the season and hasn't scored for a couple of weeks on the road so he's due a bounce-back.
Longshot – Ryan Tannehill anytime – 11.00 (365)
A standout price on Tannehill as he's best priced 7.00 elsewhere. He's been running the ball a lot in general since taking over (Averaging around 5 rush attempts per game) and has a 2 TD game under his belt already this season. He's scored in a couple of games this year and is likely to be franchise tagged by the Titans next year. The Raiders can be thrown on so they should be able to move the ball up the field.
Picks for the day;
- Chiefs v Pats u49
- Alexander Mattison anytime – 3.75
- Aaron Jones anytime – 1.67
- Ryan Tannehill anytime – 11.00 (half stake)
Good Luck with whatever you're on, there's some cracking games tonight with serious playoff implications. The 1800 49ers v Saints game should be a beauty and the Ravens v Bills looks great on paper as well.