MrFixIt’s Big Acca is a confidence-ranked accumulator built to give you control over risk.
Selections are ordered from strongest to weakest based on form, matchup, and underlying performance. You decide where to stop. From the third selection onward, the cumulative odds update at every step, allowing you to lock in a sensible acca or keep building toward a bigger return.
Our midweek selections come from the World Cup as enter into the latter stages of the tournament.
One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.
France have scored from 10.65 xG and created 21 big chances across five matches, numbers that back up an attack firing on multiple fronts throughout this tournament. France to win and both teams to score is how I'm playing it, with Morocco having generated 8.34 xG and 17 big chances of their own, a return that shows they still carry enough threat to hurt a defence even against stronger opposition.
France hold the stronger overall profile on both underlying data and a 222 point Elo edge, and that gap should be enough to see them through to the next round. Morocco's attacking numbers suggest they will not go quietly though, and there is enough quality in their forward line to expect them finding the net as well.
Argentina have conceded only 2.08 xGA, two big chances and seven shots on target across four matches, numbers that put their defence among the tightest remaining in the tournament.
That kind of control has been the foundation of their run so far, and nothing in Egypt's underlying figures suggests they can break it down. Egypt sit on a negative xG difference, with 5.11 xG created against 5.40 xGA allowed, a return that points to an attack short of end product and a defence far too easy to open up.
Argentina to win to nil is my read here, backed further by a 404 point Elo gap on top of that defensive contrast, one of the more lopsided ties left in the bracket. Their attack carries enough quality to make the clean sheet count too.
England have generated 9.89 xG from five matches, while Norway are not far behind on 9.74 xG of their own, and both numbers show attacks that are creating chances consistently rather than relying on fortune.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is my angle, since neither defence has been watertight either, with Norway conceding 8.12 xGA and England 4.18 xGA, leaving a clear route for goals at both ends of this tie. Norway in particular have shown they can be got at defensively throughout the tournament, and England's own attacking numbers suggest they will look to exploit that from the opening whistle.
When two attacking sides with generous defensive numbers meet, an open game tends to follow, and this looks the highest scoring tie of the round on the numbers alone.
Bet: France win & BTTS, Argentina win to NIL & over 2.5 goals & BTTS at Norway vs England at 13/1 at Betway
Belgium have generated 6.78 xG from three matches, well clear of the 1.94 xGA they have conceded, and that attacking edge should give the hosts problems all game.
They have also created seven big chances of their own, a return that backs up the sense of a side hitting form at the right time. USA to win and both teams to score is where I land here, and USA are not without an answer at their own end, having produced 12 big chances and 5.51 xG from four matches, enough output to expect them finding the net as well.
Where this tie swings for me is at the other end, since Belgium have allowed 20 shots on target across just three games, a defence there to be got at. Home advantage and enough attacking return of their own should see USA through to the next round.
Bet: France win & BTTS, Argentina win to NIL, over 2.5 goals & BTTS at Norway vs England & USA win & BTTS at 31/1 at 10Bet
Colombia have conceded just 2.73 xGA and only five shots on target across four matches, the standout defensive record left in the competition, and that puts Switzerland up against their toughest test of the tournament by some distance.
Under 1.5 goals is the angle I'm backing, given Colombia's own attack is the concern on the other side, with 6.33 xG produced but their finishing still lagging behind that number, a gap that has flattered their goal return so far. With one side defending superbly and the other underperforming in front of goal, neither team looks likely to find the net with any regularity here.
This has the shape of a tight, low event contest, and a narrow gap of 66 Elo points backs up how close this tie should be.
Bet: France win & BTTS, Argentina win to NIL, over 2.5 goals & BTTS at Norway vs England, USA win & BTTS & under 1.5 goals between Switzerland vs Colombia at 88/1 at 10Bet
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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