LAST night I pointed the finger at Watford and Doncaster and having slept on it there is nothing that can put me off backing either side.
Watford are leading the chase to deny Cardiff or Hull automatic promotion and should take care of a Burnley side who simply don't score enough – two in their last games despite the threat of Charlie Austin.
Czech striker Matej Vydra, who netted a double in his nation's 3-0 win in Armenia on Tuesday, will return full of confidence and he could outscore them on their own.
Watford have lost their last two which is a worry but this game gives them the perfect chance to get back on track. And those two losses man William Hill are offering 21-20 which is marvellous.
Add another Championship side in Crystal Palace at home to Birmingham. Palace have lost just once in 19 games at home and need to recover from last week's 3-0 defeat at Brighton.
That was a poor display but at home Palace have been super consistent with 30-goal Glenn Murray leading the line superbly. They have scored six goals in their last two home outings and even though Brum are improving a price of 5-6 with most firms is tempting.
Complete the treble with League One leaders Doncaster at crisis-hit Coventry who could appeal against a 10-point deduction for entering administration.
The loss leaves Coventry closer to the drop zone than the play-offs and on the back of their financial problems they went down 2-0 at Portsmouth last week.
Doncaster have regrouped after the loss of manager Dean Saunders and have opened up a five-point gaps over their rivals under Brian Flynn.
Rovers have won 13 games away from home – more than any side in the English leagues – and this should be No.14.
For my Super Single I'm taking a chance on Wolves who have won two of their last three as they try to fight their way out of the drop zone.
Saunders' first task was to make Wolves hard to beat when he arrived but now they have to win games and victories against Bristol City and Millwall have given them hope. They enterain off-form Middlesbrough who have lost three in a row since beating Cardiff.
Tony Mowbray's men are now five points short of the play-offs and going in the wrong direction. Confidence is at a low ebb and this must be a great chance for Wolves who are 6-4 at Titanbet. This is a Saturday game and will be my Super Single in the Daily Record.
Anyone looking for one today should consider Murray to score first at 7-2 at BetVictor and Ladbrokes.
Top Treble
Watford (3pm)
Crystal Palace (5.30pm)
Doncaster (3pm)
Pays £87.41 to a £10 stake at Titanbet
Super Single
Murray to score first (5.30pm)
Anytime scorer double
Vydra (Watford)
Murray (Palace)
Pays a biggest £42 to a £10 stake at Ladbrokes
Both teams to score treble
Bury v Crewe (3pm)
Carlisle v Shrewsbury (3pm)
Colchester v Bournemouth (3pm)
Pays a biggest £53.90 to a £10 stake at bet365
In December 2020 we sadly 
Mr F The only thing that puts me off Watford is that it is Sean Dyche’s first game back at Vicarage road since his controversial sacking – potential draw for me.
I like your other 2 though plus Northampton & Leicester.
Muzza, Dyche can’t play for them so don’t think that will have too much of an effect.
That’s true Mr F – I bet he wishes he could! Used to play junior football with him and was a 5ft 6″ really skilful midfielder – when he went pro they must have put him in a “grow a brute” bag as he became a 6ft 4″ man monster!
Wolves are playing tomorrow btw Mr F
Muzza, too many games split into two days. I’ll leave Wolves as Super Single, hopefully it still comes up.
The T20 extravangaza that is the Indian Premier League is back next week.
Outright Winner
Last year’s beaten finalists the Chennai Super Kings are favourites to lift the IPL trophy this season at 5.5 and having claimed the title in 2011 and 2010, MS Dhoni’s men are looking strong once again. Chennai have a powerful overseas contingent but crucially, they contain the best in local Indian talent with Dhoni heading a squad that contains Ravindra Jadeja, Ravichandran Ashwin, Murali Vijay and the IPL’s all-time leading run scorer Suresh Raina.
Chennai are obvious favourites but the outstanding outside pick here are the Pune Warriors. They failed to make the playoffs in 2012 but since then, key players in the squad have enjoyed a prolific 12 months with either bat or ball.
England’s Luke Wright was welcomed back by the national selectors to make his country’s highest score in an international T20 while Marlon Samuels has finally matured to produce the talent to back up his immense potential.
Elsewhere, Tamim Iqbal, Yuvraj Singh and new signing Ross Taylor will bolster the batting while Sri Lanka’s mystery spinner Ajantha Mendis is rediscovering his best form just at the right time. The bowling attack will be headed by Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Ashok Dinda who have both made significant international breakthroughs in the last twelve months.
Pune have been hit by the news that Michael Clarke is likely to miss the tournament through injury but there is enough batting talent in this squad to cover for the loss of the Aussie skipper. The Warriors are out at a generous 12.0 outright win market and are a sound option at 3.0 for a top four finish.
Recommended Bet: Back the Pune Warriors at 12.0
Top Batsman
Chris Gayle of Royal Challengers Bangalore is a clear favourite for the top run scorer bet at 4.3 and after he topped the IPL run charts in 2012 and 2011, it will be hard to see past the powerful Jamaican in this market. However, the left hander has been uncharacteristically inconsistent over the last 12 months.
There have been low points – at the end of 2012, Gayle made just 72 from five ODI innings against a weak Bangladesh attack – but there have been incredible highs as well. In February this year, he made a memorable 114 from just 51 balls for Dhaka in the BPL to underline his potential for a third successive win in this IPL market.
However, a strong outside bet is Gayle’s Royal Challengers team mate Cheteshwar Pujara. The 25-year-old is primarily known as a patient and prolific run scorer who has yet to win a full limited overs cap but Pujara proved in the final innings of the fourth test against Australia that he can score quickly.
As India chased down a potentially testing target of 155 to win, Pujara made an undefeated 82 from 91 balls in a game with no fielding restrictions. He’s similar to other players such as Hashim Amla and Alastair Cook in that he can score heavily in all forms of the game and at odds of 26.0 he looks a superb option for this bet.
Recommended Bet: Back Cheteshwar Pujara at 26.0
Top Bowler
Sri Lanka’s Lasith Malinga is the favourite at 2.4 in 2013’s top bowler market after finishing third in the table last season with 22 victims from 14 matches. ‘The Slinger’ is the all-time leading wicket taker in IPL cricket with 83 and as recently as December 2012, he took the incredible T20 figures of 6/7 for Melbourne Stars in Australia’s Big Bash.
Malinga is a natural favourite but it’s a little surprising to see Sunil Narine out at 3.6 in this market after the Kolkata Knight Riders’ star man finished ahead of Malinga in second place last season. Like all ‘mystery spinners’ Narine has been through a difficult period where wickets haven’t fallen as frequently as they have done in the past.
2012 saw the 24-year-old make his entry into Test cricket but modest returns and the emergence of Shane Shillingford suggests that he is some way away from a return into the five-day game.
However, in IPL cricket, teams will have to get after Narine – meaning more false shots – and he is destined to bowl the important overs at the start and death of an innings when wickets tumble more frequently. At those odds of 3.6 he could be the bargain bet of this whole tournament.
TEAMS
———-
Bangalore
The 2009 runner-up lost to Deccan Chargers then and barring the 2012 season have been consistently doing well in the IPL. Owned by the colourful Vijay Mallya, the team in red is coached by South African Ray Jennings with Venkatesh Prasad as the bowling mentor. Virat Kohli, considered a future Indian captain, is the leader of BLR too.
The 2013 IPL auction saw Bangalore grabbing a few important players – Aussie all-rounders Moises Henriques and Dan Christian, Winides unkown quantity Christopher Barnwell, Indian rejects RP Singh and Pankaj Singh, Ravi Rampaul and Jaydev Unadkat.
BLR are armed with many power-hitters in Kohli, AB de Villiers, Chris Gayle, Saurabh Tiwary and Tillakaratne Dilshan with Cheteshwar Pujara, Abhinav Mukund, Mayank Agarwal, Sunny Sohal and Andrew McDonald providing the necessary back-up.
Zaheer Khan, Vinay Kumar, Abhimanyu Mithun, Muttiah Muralidaran and KP Appanna form the backbone of the bowling attack. All the team needs to do is find the right balance and no challenge would be great enough.
Kolkata
The reigning IPL champions were the team to beat in their victorious campaign last season and the 2013 edition will be no different for Kolkata. Their 5-wicket win over the two-time winners Chennai in the final was one of their best batting performances last season. The team co-owned by Shah Rukh Khan’s Red Chillies Entertainment and Juhi Chawla have a very strong group of players.
Leading the team, it seems brings out the best out of skipper Gautam Gambhir, who gives a team solid foundation, batting alongside Jacques Kallis and maverick Brendon McCullum in the top order. Wicket-keeper Manvinder Bisla is an attacking batsman, like he showed in the final last year with a swashbuckling 89. The middle order is bolstered by talented Manoj Tiwary, big hitter Yusuf Pathan, followed by all-rounders Shakib Al Hasan, Ryan ten Doeschate, Laxmi Ratan Shukla and Rajat Bhatia.
What makes Kolkata a very dangerous side is the variety in bowling attack led by West Indian mystery spinner Sunil Narine, former Australian spearhead Brett Lee and Laxmipathy Balaji. Not to forget Shakib, Bhatia, Shukla and Yusuf Pathan are handy bowlers too.
KOL picked up all-rounders Sachithra Senanayake of Sri Lanka and Ryan McLaren of South African in this year’s auction.
Mohali
The Mohali-based team has never made it bigger than reaching the semi-final in the first edition in 2008. Since then they have not been able to make a lasting impression in the league. Adam Gilchrist, the 41-year-old former Australia wicket-keeping star, leads a group of young players. Interestingly, Darren Lehmann has joined the team management and he along with Gilchrist would like to repeat their triumphant performance for Deccan Chargers in 2009.
One of the pioneering objectives of the Punjab team has been to give young domestic players a chance to perform. This has resulted in many local players doing well in domestic tournaments like opener Mandeep Singh, left-arm spinner Bhargav Bhatt and India pacer Parwinder Awana.
Amongst oversees players, former Pakistan all-rounder and now an English citizen Azhar Mahmood brings a lot of balance to the side. Shaun Marsh, having scored 1603 IPL runs at an amazing average of 46, will again bolster the batting for Kings XI. Big-hitting Luke Pomersbach joins back his former team and will be expected to play a major role this season. South African David Miller and Australian T20 veteran David Hussey will add muscle to the batting line-up.
Punjab pacer Manpreet Gony joins Praveen Kumar, Piyush Chawla, Awana in an India-dominated bowling attack.
Chennai
Chennai is currently owned by India Cements with the BCCI president N Srinivasan at the helm as de facto owner. Former New Zealand captain Stephen Fleming in the coach of the side.
CHE have been into all Indian Premier League (IPL) finals barring the 2009 edition. Having won two IPL titles under their influential skipper Mahendra Singh Dhoni, CHE will look to continue their dominance in the league in 2013. With tried and tested players – Michael Hussey, Faf du Plessis, Suresh Raina, S Badrinath, Ben Hilfenhaus, Murali Vijay, R Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Nuwan Kulasekara and Dwayne Bravo – in their squad, Chennai team is a formidable force to reckon with.
The squad has also been strengthened with clever additions – Baba Aparajith (India under-19 star), Ben Laughlin, unknown face in South Africa all-rounder Christopher Morris, Sri Lankan young spinner Akila Dananjaya and West Indian quickie Jason Holder.
Suresh Raina, Albie Morkel, Murali Vijay and MS Dhoni who form the core of the squad, have been key performers ever since the first edition. Du Plessis’s stocks as a consistent performer have risen massively while Shadab Jakati, Anirudha Srikkanth, Nuwan Kulasekara and Badrinath are all capable of springing up surprises.
Delhi
Often strong contenders, yet Delhi have flattered to deceive. One again the side from the capital city will aim to lift the coveted IPL trophy come the 26th of May. Arguably, Delhi boast the strongest squad heading into IPL 6.
The cliched ‘mix of youth and experience’ fits perfectly with the red and blue franchise, and headed by respected duo of TA Sekar and Eric Simons. Delhi have qualified for the Champions League T20 on 2 occasions, in 2009 and 2012, and have been IPL semi-finalists twice.
Led by the flamboyant Virender Sehwag, Delhi have a batting line-up to be feared and envied. Kevin Pietersen, David Warner, Mahela Jayawardena and Ross Taylor are amongst the greatest limited-overs talents in the world. One has wonder where India’s ‘next big thing’ Unmukt Chand fits into the side with all the aforementioned names.
The bowling department, while overshadowed by the batters, is led by Morne Morkel and flanked by Ranji champion Ajit Agarkar and Umesh Yadav. With the addition of all-rounders Jeevan Mendis and Johan Botha, the Daredevils have added depth to an already bulging squad.
Jaipur
Owned by actress Shilpa Shetty, and spearheaded by two superstars of the game, first Shane Warne and now Rahul Dravid, Jaipur have played the underdog card to perfection.
With limited resources and an unheralded squad, Rajasthan surprised all by winning the inaugural edition of the IPL in 2008. However, after their success the Royals have not come close to those heights, having failed to qualify past the group stage since.
During the recent IPL auction the Royals backed their original squad and added fringe players Kushal Perera, James Faulkner and Fidel Edwards. Dravid has the responsibility of leading yet again while much will depend on Shane Watson’s form and fitness. Watson has ‘given up’ bowling for Australia, so it will be interesting to see if he relents for 4 overs during the IPL. Ajinkya Rahane has proven his talent but is showing signs of unpredictability, while Shaun Tait has always been hit-and-miss.
But to see the youthfull exhuberance of the two Brads, Hodge and Hogg, aged 38 and 41 respectively, is worth the price of admission alone. Success may not be realistically forthcoming this season for Rajasthan, but entertainment will not be lacking.
Mumbai
After failing badly in the first two editions of the Indian Premier League (IPL), Mumbai came to the fore under none other than Sachin Tendulkar himself in 2010 IPL. They lost to a stronger Chennai then. MUM reached the playoff stage even in the next two editions – once under Sachin and in 2012 under Harbhajan Singh.
The Reliance Industries limited own the team with John Wright the current coach.
The squad is loaded with a host of Australian players in – Aiden Blizzard, Mitchell Johnson alongwith the 2013 signings in Ricky Ponting, Phil Hughes, Nathan Coulter-Nile and millon-dollar man Glenn Maxwell.
Tendulkar, Lasith Malinga, Ambati Rayudu, Rohit Sharma, Kieron Pollard, James Franklin, Munaf Patel, Dwayne Smith and Dinesh Karthik are the core group members.
Mumbai also have exciting Indian youngsters in Amitoze Singh, Suryakumar Yadav, Jalaj Saxena and Abu Nechim.
With a good mix of fast bowlers and spinners, including Munaf Patel, Dhawal Kulkarni and Pragyan Ojha, the ‘strengthened’ sqaud will be ready to go the next level in IPL.
Pune
One of the newer entrants in the IPL, Pune have failed to live up to their billing in the two season they have played, despite a host of world class talent. Having stocked up on their entire quota of 33 players, it remains to be seen if Pune have accumulated quality with their numbers.
Sentimentality aside, the return of Yuvraj Singh after recovering from cancer, comes as a massive boost to the youthful franchise. After an under-par IPL last year, Australian skipper Michael Clarke will have to step up to his billing. Steven Smith is a splendid T20 cricketer, and Pune will be hoping that Marlon Samuels recovers in time from his eye injury. At the auction this year, Pune spent big on, understandably – Abhishek Nayar and Ajantha Mendis and rather surprisingly – Australian rookie pacer Kane Richardson.
Luke Wright and Alfonso Thomas are proven T20 players and the Warriors will bank on Bhuvneshwar Kumar carrying his success with India into the IPL arena.
Pune have been a let-down in the T20 extravaganza thus far, plagued more with controversy than on-field success. The franchise has players in abundance, but whether they yearn for success remains to be seen.
Hyderabad
The Hyderabad-based team, owned by the Sun TV Group was founded on October 25, 2012 and replaced the 2009 IPL winners Deccan Chargers, which was terminated by the Governing Council. Sri Lankan skipper Kumar Sangakkara will lead the side in their maiden edition. The team management includes head coach Tom Moody, former Mohali coach and former Chennai mentor Kris Srikkanth.
The core of the side remains the same from the Deccan Chargers outfit. Prolific IPL run-getter Shikhar Dhawan, Test regular Ishant Sharma, wicket-keeper Parthiv Patel and leg-spinner Amit Mishra are the leading Indian players in the team. What gives Sunrisers a big boost is the plethora of overseas players they have in T20 veteran Cameron White and emerging big-hitter Chris Lynn, South African pace spearhead Dale Steyn and all-rounder Rusty Theron.
The 2013 signings from the auction include big-hitting Sri Lankan all-rounder Thisara Perera, Australian pacer Clint McKay, West Indian captain Darren Sammy, New Zealand off-spinning all-rounder Nathan McCullum and young South African wicketkeeper batsman Quinton de Kock.
The Hyderabad side has not made it past the group stages after winning the tournament in South Africa in 2009 and they would hope to at least make the playoffs this season.
Starting Fixtures :
Date / Time
Match
Teams
Apr 03, 2013
20:00 (IST)
Match 1 (D/N)
Eden Gardens, Kolkata
Kolkata vs Delhi
Apr 04, 2013
20:00 (IST)
Match 2 (D/N)
M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Bangalore vs Mumbai
Apr 05, 2013
20:00 (IST)
Match 3 (D/N)
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad
Hyderabad vs Pune
Apr 06, 2013
16:00 (IST)
Match 4 (D/N)
Feroz Shah Kotla, Delhi
Delhi vs Jaipur
Apr 06, 2013
20:00 (IST)
Match 5 (D/N)
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai
Chennai vs Mumbai
Apr 07, 2013
16:00 (IST)
Match 6 (D/N)
Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune
Pune vs Mohali
Milesey
Milesey, and I was going to ignore the cricket. Wasn’t entirely sure if we did tips on pastimes!
Big betting money goes on the IPL.
Milesey
Milesey, I know. Just kidding. It’s almost as big as curling.
Back the favourites outright
The thrills, spills and turnarounds associated with the T20 might give the impression that cricket’s shortest format is something of a lottery. That couldn’t be further from the truth. The formbook has stood up remarkably well in this league, with the usual suspects tending to reach the final-four play-offs every year. Chennai have never missed the play-offs, winning the title twice and losing two finals. Mumbai have reached the last three play-offs. Bangalore three of the last four.
In footballing terms, Chennai are the IPL’s Manchester United. Their star-studded batting line-up goes so deep that low first innings totals are extremely rare, while even the unlikeliest run-chases become possible when your middle-order consists of Raina, Dhoni and Dwayne Bravo, with several more capable hitters further down. Their consistency makes a play-off spot a virtual certainty, at which stage the current 5.5 will offer the chance to bank a considerable profit if desired.
Equally there’s plenty to like about defending champions Kolkata at 7.0 in anticipation of a third consecutive play-off appearance. Led by a classy, well-balanced top-three of Gambhir, McCullum and Kallis, Kolkata’s impressive squad includes Sunil Narine, who could be the star bowler of the tournament.
Recommended Bets
Back Chennai Super Kings @ 5.5
Back Kolkata Knight Riders @ 7.0
Back openers in the Top Run Scorer market
Due to a plethora of world-class names, this looks like a wide-open betting heat, but once again history suggests the appearance is deceptive. The top batsman in all five previous IPLs was an opener and in the last four cases, an easy one to identify. Chris Gayle has won the last two, preceded by Sachin Tendulkar and Matthew Hayden. This is no coincidence – in 20 over matches, openers are bound to get more and longer innings. If their side chases down a low target easily, they may be the only batsmen to get a meaningful innings.
Gayle is a skinny 5.0 to complete the hat-trick, but if you’re happy to take the big man on, the next shortest price is 17.0. I like the chances of the players who finished second, third and fourth last year, all of whom are openers. That was the second time Gautam Gambhir has been second in this market and is around 21.0 to go one better. Like Gayle, he captains his side and will therefore play as often as possible. Last year’s third Shikhar Darwan carried his side through a terrible run and is a live candidate again at a big price, as is Rajasthan Royals opener Ajinkya Rahane.
Recommended Bets
Back Gautam Gambhir @ 21.0
Back Shikhar Darwan @ 36.0
Back Ajinkya Rahane @ 40.0
In-play tactics
Back to lay extreme outcomes, especially in the innings runs markets
There are of course many great turnarounds in IPL, which make it tempting to employ the simplisitic trading maxim to ‘Back High, Lay Low’. There’s little sense, however, in blindly backing that turnaround without measuring the likelihood based on the specific circumstances. When betting in-running, the best advice is simply to follow conditions closely to gauge what constitutes a par total. Whether the pitch, overhead conditions and ground stats are liable to produce much higher or lower than par. The predictions of pundits and captains are not wholly reliable, but they’re generally a good guide.
Rather than the match odds market, the best place to find massive price upsets is the Innings Runs market. Here, there is an option for each band of ten (i.e. 120 or more, 130 or more etc). Very short odds-on chances, even going down to the minimum 1.01, have repeatedly been turned over in this market as a result of batting collapses or an explosive spell of big-hitting.
In order to maximise the potential of this volatile market, my advice is to take a view, either before or early during in the innings, on whether the total is likely to be above or below the par score. Once making that decision, back the bands 20 or 30 above or below par in your chosen direction. Pick the right way and you’ll have an excellent trading position.
Back short totals at big odds in the 6 Over Total market
The 6 Over Total market is another volatile affair, although here I’m inclined to stick with ‘unders’ when conditions suit. Whereas there is a realistic limit to the upside during the early slog, there are always a few very low totals when batting teams completely fail to master early conditions against strike bowlers. Lose a couple of wickets in the first three overs, and most teams will opt to consolidate before rebuilding during the middle overs. It is certainly not unheard of for a team to score below 20 during this opening period. Obviously, as with all in-running markets, keep an eye on overhead conditions and captains’ comments at the toss regarding whether the wicket is expected to be lively first up.
lol
Watford
Doncaster
My dons
Swindon
Sheffield utd
Oxford
Rotherham
Wycombe
All to win
Btts-
Carlisle- Shrewsbury
Colchester-Bournemouth
Crawley-Stevenage
Scunthorpe-leyton orient
Tranmere-Sheffield utd
Yeovil-Walsall
Oxford-morcambe
Port vale-Cheltenham
Rochdale-aldershot
Wycombe-accrington
What you think mr F
Good luck all
DENMARK.
Very small profit yesterday and a 11.72% interest on my €500.00 bankroll on this Danish series after 16 games. 3 games again today from the Danish Superliga and one of them a high value bet.
FC Nordsjalland have not only beaten Aarhus GF twice all ready this season (away!) but are also undefeated at home in close to 12 months and a much better team than Aarhus GF. The Danish league are not an easy one to predict but a weak Aarhus GF side without Petri Pasanen, Atle Haland and probably Anders Kure will have more than a hard time today.
I’m on FC Nordsjalland.
FC Nordsjalland – Aahus GF (2.00 UK)
FC Nordsjalland
odds: 1,90
Stake: €14.00 (or 2.8% from my fixed €500.00 for this Danish series)
Esbjerg – Brondby (4.00 UK)
Brondby +0.5
odds: 1,84
Stake: €15.00 (3%)
FC Midtjylland – FC Copenhagen (6.00 UK)
Both Teams To Score
odds: 1,74
Stake: €16.00 (3.2%)The Dane.
Palace are without Zaha, BTTS in that game i think
SHOT IN THE DARK ACCIE
LEYTON ORIENT
DONCASTER
WATFORD
CRYSTAL PALACE
NORTHAMPTON odds around 46/1
BTTS TREBLE
Coventry v Doncaster
Carlisle v Shrewsbury
Colchester v Bournemouth
TOP TREBLE
WATFORD
PRESTON
SWINDON
SUPER SINGLE
ALDERSHOT
BONKERS BET
PALACE 2 BIRMINGHAM 2
GOOD LUCK
Super Single
Leyton Orient odds around 9/5 are huge for a team that top the form table in league 1,undefeated in 7 games playing away to scunthorpe who have been in dire form recently losing last 4 and losing 6 games from last 7.
Surprised that very few if any have tipped Orient up for a win today at these odds,i see no reason why they shouldnt win.
Does anyone else think Southend are a huge price at 3/1 away to Bradford? Also new manager!
Big price Stevie but Bradford are a decent team at home as Villa & Arsenal found out…….
Plus the new Sarfend manager is a cock who is so far up his own arse it is unreal! I feal sorry for Paul sturrock!
I hope Bradford stuff em!!
haha..like Muzza’s description of the new “Sarfend” manager…”a cock so far up his own arse its unreal” haha..sounds like Muzz is not a fan ;-)
One of my selections tomorrow are BRISTOL ROVERS,i think they are overpriced at around evens at home to york.Rovers have won 6 from last 7 at home including winning last 4,3 of these games were against teams in the top 6,they play at home to york tomorrow who havent won in last 15.Rovers are overpriced so get stuck in.
Super single Doncaster 7/4
Doncaster over 1.5 goals 6/4
Over 2.5 goals treble:
Derby v Bristol city
Scunthorpe v Leyton Orient
Carlise v Shrewsbury
Win accumulator:
Derby
Laval
Nordsjalland
Derry
Sligo
Speculative treble and 4 fold:
Crewe
Carlise
Leyton Orient
MKD
Over 2.5 goals 4 fold!
Helmond
Go Eagles
Voldeem
MVV
Over 1.5 goals singles
Torquay
MKD
AFC Wimbeldon
Good luck everyone – hopefully get some good results to roll on to tonight’s euro games
Stevie H, im on southend today mate. Done a risky treble of Millwall,Southend & Cheltenham all to win.
£2.50 for £97.50 return at coral(shop,not online)
watford
leicster
northampton
todays treble
Nice call on Nordsjaelland, The Dane! 2-0 up heading for half-time…
7.45 K/O
Under Eric Devlin 29/40 Bray Wanderers home games have produced Over 2.5 Goals. Since Martin Russell took over 39/53 UCD away matches have gone Over 2.5 Goals, including 8/8 since last August.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0 in Bray v UCD
Milesey
For Jupiler BTTS fans – here’s tonight’s stats.
Home team is avg goals for/agst for all home games; away team is avg goals for/agst for all away games over season so far.
Number in brackets is current league position.
(2) MVV Maastricht 2.08 / 1.54 V (5) De Graafschap 1.58 / 1.08
A definite BTTS pick. Maastricht beat Sparta away last time out. They’re on a high. De Graafschap are solid in attack and, unusually for this league, defence, but Maastricht will score and, with that goals against record, look likely to concede.
(3) FC Volendam 2.62 / 1.77 V (8) Fortuna Sittard 1.38 / 1.46
One word: Volendam. BTTS.
(4) Helmond Sport 1.85 / 1.38 V (17) FC Eindhoven 0.92 / 2.38
Looks a pretty likely home win. Eindhoven can’t score. But like Paul McCartney and Billy Preston, they sure do let ‘em in. And no use for BTTS.
(7) Go Ahead Eagles 2.08 / 1.25 V (1) Sparta Rotterdam 1.58 / 1.25
BTTS. Sparta are still top and will want to bounce back from losing to Maastricht last time. They didn’t score last time, and drawing a blank twice in a row for a team at the top of the Jupiler is unthinkable. Go Ahead did us all a turn a week or so back, and they’re thumping them in right now.
(11) FC Dordrecht 1.73 / 1.73 V (12) FC Oss 1.58 / 2.17
BTTS. Similarly placed sides, both around average for scoring home and away, and both fairly shoddy at the back.
(13) FC Emmen 1.45 / 1.45 V (14) Telstar 1.08 / 1.85
Probably a fairly comfortable home win, but not great for BTTS.
(15) Almere City FC 1.23 / 1.77 V (6) SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 1.18 / 1.36
Naturally, this will come flying in by 20 minutes and end up 5-3, but I’d leave well alone based on the stats.
(16) Excelsior 1.75 / 1.67 V (9) FC Den Bosch 1.25 / 1.50
This one tempts me, and if I wasn’t happy with the four I have, I’d possibly go with it for BTTS.
Haven’t seen these on any coupons in shops – not on Hills, maybe at Paddy Power…
Online, they’ll be between 2/5 and 4/9
BTTS Recommend
Maastricht + Volendam for double
+ Go Ahead for treble
+ Dordrecht for fourfold
couldn’t resist a ‘risk-free’ bet wi betvictor, £10 on btts 5fold and if, or when, ot loses I’ll get a free £10 btts 5fold on Monday. Here’s my selections for just over £200
Bury v Crewe
tranmere v shef utd
Yeovil v Walsall
Bradford v Southend
Northampton v Torquay
Vydra on the bench for Watford. Thats just great
Arnie, worried about Vydra a little bit after his international exploits but I’ve got to put up tips before starting line-ups unfortunately.
And Burnley scores hahah
And Watford equalises
annnnnnnnnnd watford losing again. I’m never backing them again
annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd watford equalize and I look foolish again :-D
Loving this Nordsjaelland game. Keep getting on the Asian Goal Line and the goals keep coming. One of those game. Last one is over 7 goals at 5.50 but even if it loses I am still well up.
anybody on El Zemalek 4/5 home to ismaily
I got El Zemalek but i got them Draw no bet at only 1.36 in a 5 fold with Watford, Scunthorpe, PSG and Al Ain
English football really is pish!! Zero goals!!
Greg, Guido’s right, we can’t always judge games on goals. Remember Italian teams of the past, loved winning 1-0, hated 3-2s, 4-3s etc because that meant teams had defended badly.
Paul/Greg – Clydebank and Stevenage are of course the masters of catenaccio..a rare treat if ever you are in the vicinity or either ;-)
Greg, guess if we were being kind we could say they were good at defending pish!! ;-)
Haha, you could say that, Although I don’t believe it has anything to do with good defending, just poor midfielders and Stikers! It’s verging on the Greek legaue, lol!
Yeah, more likely Greg..lower English league full of 6ft 4 in brick shithouses who can hoof the ball 150 yards and opposition players slightly less. The ball usually ends up getting treated in hospital with vertigo after a match!!! :-)
need goals in the yeovil game and soon!!
Common Colchester just stick it into the net
hartlepool goal would be nice
Any advice for the preston game?
Annnnnnnnndddd Watford bust my coupon in added time once again
And i thaught today was good fri a sickner :(
Ouch, sore one for those waiting for Watford! :(
Not a great day, although waiting for over 2.5 goals in the Derby match for a treble + Nordsjaelland winning keeps my accumulator running to tonight’s games! Hopefully the Dutch and French games are better than the English ones!
Greg, I kept things to minimum today. Easter holiday card always tough.
Any tips for tonight’s football??
Colm – try Crystal Palace, Northampton, Tigre not to lose later in Argentina
Anyone fancy goals in the palace game? over 1.5 , 2.5? Or any other game for that matter
Ben – goals in the Videoton game for sure KO 18:00
GUIDO – cant believe Donny! Missed 7 1 on 1 chances in the second half – gutted!!
Sounded like it was like the Alamo Muzz…these things happened. Managed to cash oot kinda by mistake as well!! before Oxford conceded so wasn’t a disaster and re-invested in Crystal Palace n Northampton double
Hope u got on Videoton Ben?
Ouch all sorts of combos busted by both Oxford and Watford letting in last minute goals. Need to learn my lesson to steer clear of championship and league 1 & 2.
Hoping Dukla Prague and a goal fest from Videoton can make it for it.
Mr T – Cash in not a bad option if you have it such circumstance…bird in the hand sorta thing ?
Bet Murray anytime 1/1
Good luck
Sorry missed out the palace v Birmingham bit but I think u could of guessed that
Result! Had a nice BTTS 5 games up so good afternoon so far…..
gutted watford donny palace swindon in a few diff acc and singles
wave aftr wave of attack for videoton, no sign of a goal..hopefully there late show last time out isnt a trend, iv got em on over 2.5 @2.50 (inplay)
PSG @ 1.650
Pacos Ferreira @ 1.833
Sligo Rovers @ 1.667
Multiple Type: Treble
Stake: 5.00
Possible Return: 25.21
Dudi Sela to def Lukas Rosol. Tennis challenge le gosier
As I thought all the other results have come up which means after being 2-0 up Southend have let me down for a solid £2500 :( I’m distraught absolutley can’t believe it!
Badham, that’s hard to take but Bradford v Southend was a tough pick.
Paul, wise move! Hoping the French Dutch and Videoton game turn things around!
3-0 Videoton and the other team down to 10 men,over 2.5 is up but another goal would be nice.
Our trusted friends Videoton do it again!
4-0
2/1 over 3.5 Videton goals! :)
I was on that as well Greg plus a couple of in play bets as well.
Happy days :)
VIDEOTON 6 NIL
what a lovely bit of inplay action in the second half have made thousands ;) ;) GET IN !!
Milesey
I’ve only made hundreds ;(
80th minute the odds were huge on 4.5 goals and 5.5 goals, always worth a punt in these games ;) ;)
Milesey
Kim Jong S, 6-0 full time!
Some good inplay opportunities there, especially after the other team going down to 10 men!:)
Great result Greg :) never took over 5.5 but I got the rest. only lost out on Videoton to score in both half’s.
But Ican live with that :)
Hard luck Badham, know the feeling, keep your heid up
Leicester down to ten men, Millwall are 7/4
BET MILLWALL TO BEAT LEICESTER
GOOD LUCK
Milesey any trends I should take a look at for Lincoln tomorrow, I’m going with captain Bertie but may do another selection if anything stands out on the trends.
Should be a preview up for the race later and a runner by runner guide, also the dubai world cup, thats where my money is going tomorrow, best racecards of the year at Meydan tomorrow, forget everything else, Meydan is where it’s at tomorrow ;) ;)
Milesey
Your right Milesey,wish I had taken over 5.5.but I done a similar bet on the Slovan Bratislava game so I’m up over £800
I’ve had worse days ;)
I’m just waiting on this BRAY V UCD game, went over 2.5 goals @ evens, 1-1 at the moment 30 minutes gone, and thats it for me today.
Milesey
milesey good you are up. Want a Len of ma trumpet. Only kidding. He hates junkies should nae have would him up about that. Anyway that’s the past lets move on from it u seem a good tipster. Can appreciate u get p off when people chit chat on the site and u are not interested. But come on big yin just skip it. Don’t know why just assume you are a big bloke. Danny is a monster would nae like to meet him on a dark night.
how Bro wit was he giving it
I noticed the tips I done are nowhere to been seen must be summit to do with daring to answer back Pauls fav person Chris no the names Milesey these days
haha if thats the case the people that run the site can stick it right up there arse
YOUR ON THE WRONG PAGE
Danny
29/03/2013
Treble – Watford – Swindon – Wycombe
Aways Double – Bournemouth – MK Dons
Single – Preston 2 Score In Both Halves
Both 2 Score Treble
Blackburn – Blackpool
Tranmere – SheffUtd
Barnet – Dagenham
Anytime Goal Scorers
Clayton Donaldson (Brentford)
Nahki Wells (Bradford)
Danny Nardiello (Rotherham)
Early Chinese Double – Guizhou Renhe – Shanghai Shenxin
EUROPE
Treble – Shamrock – PSG – Caen
Croatia/Czech Double – Rijeka – DuklaPrague
Single – Universitatea Cluj
Both 2 Score Treble
Antwerp – Westerlo
Sedan – Guingamp
Chateauroux – Angers
Anytime Goal Scorers
Andreas Cornelius (Copenhagen)
Cicero (Pacos Ferreira)
Rory Paterson (Derry)
Danny, that comment is out of order. Nothing’s been deleted.
aye your right Paul I apologize no need for a comment of that nature got out the wrong side of bed this morning
Dutch games looking great with 30 mins to go, just need a couple more goals!
Ok cheers milesey, i’ll keep an eye out, will get involved in Meydan, with my rugby winnings, Greg the go ahead eagles are becoming my team to follow in dutch league, need 1 more goal in that game.
7/4 on Millwall fulltime and 4/6 draw no bet what do you think ???
anybody got a stan james account?? log into casino and there should be 10 free spins or a free fiver to use on the slots, check their twitter account for the link if its not already in. got £15 back and put it on Liverpool and Man utd to score 2+ goals and bristol rovers win for £64, makes up for a dissapointing day wi the football
A goal from Millwall + Northampton would be appreciated, would bring up in play singles.
That was abit easy, in on the stroke of half time !!
Laters all.
Milesey
Under Eric Devlin 29/40 Bray Wanderers home games have produced Over 2.5 Goals. Since Martin Russell took over 39/53 UCD away matches have gone Over 2.5 Goals, including 8/8 since last August.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0 in Bray v UCD
Steven sounds good to me I’m on Millwall in play, I almost made them my super single as they have won the last 3 meetings with leicester but changed my mind as it was an evening game
e
Emmen v Telstar 1-1 after 6 mins, finished 1-1 and does my Dutch 6 team over 2.5 goals line! Unbelievable
Got PSG at 11/10 just need a goal from Northampton to bring up my treble can’t see millwall scoring but got 20 on them
Tennis tip for tonight!
Andy Murray to win 2-0 4/5 Sportingbet
He hasn’t dropped a single set since touching down in Miami and I can’t see anything changing here.
The Scot is scheduled in the second semi final of the day at around 11pm UK time tonight after David Ferrer vs Tommy Haas, which takes place at 7pm UK time.
Murray takes on Richard Gasquet, who enjoyed a straight sets win over Tomas Berdych last night and it will be the eighth meeting of a series that Murray leads 4-3.
They haven’t met since the French Open almost a year ago that after dropping the opening set Murray won at a canter and this could be another tricky one for Andy with Gasquet playing well at the moment.
Interestingly, the winner of the opening set has gone on to lose the match in four of the last five meetings between this pair, which may make for a good opportunity if that sequence were to continue.
I expect Murray to come through this one, but it could very well be tough and it’s worth considering Gasquet on the handicap with a 4.5 game start or the bet that I like in this, which is the total games market.
Only one of their best of three set meetings has been decided in two sets and that was their very first match back in 2006 and what tends to happen is that Gasquet starts well and Murray finds a way.
In their last three meetings Gasquet has won six games in the opening set before fading, but four of their last five meetings have been at Slams and over this shorter distance the Gasman should be more willing to tough it out.
Murray hasn’t dropped a set this week so far, but I think he might today and the 2-1 Murray win at around 4.3 is another option, but I’m siding with over 22.5 total games at around 2.2.
Recommended Bet
Back over 22.5 games in Murray vs Gasquet at 2.2
Milesey, on bet365 for over 22 games its 2.10 in the 3 way total games market and the 2 way total games over 21.5 – is 1.72 under 21.5 games 2.00 what’s the best one to go for cheers
Sorry Stephen only just seen your question, i hope you got on something… looking good for the over 22 games at the moment, 12 games already and going into the 1st set tie break.
Milesey
1st set 7 – 6 Gasquet
2nd set 6 – 1 Murray
3rd set 3 – 2 Murray ( current score )
Back over 22.5 games in Murray vs Gasquet at 2.2
Milesey
Milesey, yeah agreed with you there. They usuallyhave tough games.
First set goes the way of Richard Gasquet 7 – 6.
Milesey
Badham, I watched Murray’s game last night and it wasn’t easy. Usually a battle when him and Gasquet play so not so sure about straight sets.
Yassss chief we got it ya beauty.
Goooooooaaaalll :)
Well done the chief took Millwall at 15/8, just hope they can hold out.
Awww yeah, nothing better than a win like that.
Late winners for Millwall + Northampton brings a nice profit
Stephen, Kim Jong S, to be honest I couldn’t see a goal coming, saying Millwall were playing against 10 men they were poor tonight, but its a win nevertheless
anyone know who got motm in the Millwall game?
A pretty rubbish day has turned into a fantastic night! My three accumulators I posted earlier all came up + Videoton over 3.5 and inplay on over 0.5 goals in the two late English games!
Not really followed Irish football before, added Derry and Sligo into my lines tonight, glad I did! Shame Emmem and Shelbourne games finished 1-1 or it could have been a keys to the shop night, haha!
Hope everyone had a better night than they did afternoon! :)
Anybody any thoughts on Tigre 11/4 away to Colon in the Argy league?
Seems a massive price going by league pos, and away form to date?
Colon are mince lost last 5 games a shoved a tenner on Tigre at 17/2 and over 4.5 goals hopefully there’s goals 2nd half.
weirdo, motm was andy keogh
Still betting small. But made a nice £20 profit today. Considering I lost with Doncaster, Watford and Shamrock, all in all – very good day. Hopefully with a steady consistent profit I can start putting down Milesey stakes soon ;)
PSG again!!
That’s 2 in a month a game of there’s cost me over £1000 :-/
No more French betting for me
Deano, what was your bet? Noticed for fans of Dutch btts just one team failed to score tonight so maybe getting back to the way they were a few months back.
Tigre worth a shout in-play 1-0 down odds should be good.
“PSG @ 1.650 1-0 WIN :)
Pacos Ferreira @ 1.833 3-2 WIN :)
Sligo Rovers @ 1.667 0-3 WIN :)
Multiple Type: Treble
Stake: 5.00
Possible Return: 25.21”
While it’s only a small win, the way my luck has been the past few weeks, I’m so glad to end my abysmal run of winless bets and I hope my luck continues tomorrow.
I landed my Scottish treble in midweek and hoping to do so again on Sat
TOP TREBLE
LIVINGSTON
PARTICK
Q,O,S
Good luck if your having a bet
My bet was :-
Palace over 2.5
Northampton
Ferreira
Videoton over 3.5
Copenhagen over 2.5
PSG over 2.5
£20 returned £1114
Deano. it’s pretty unlucky but as you say PSG are not reliable.
Mr F do u rate the Bankies @ 11/8 against Cumnock 2 moro ?
1plus2, I’m afraid to say no. Bankies haven’t been at their best this year but look safe from the drop while Cumnock need the points a bit more and have been improving. Having said that we’ve drawn every time we’ve gone down there and I’d happily take a point.
Chill out Danny bro. Nante happening mucker. Site I’s the site an we love it all the same. Just 1 ,ae they w…s u ..d lu. T. …… Just … Been …
lol am not with you
Bet Confirmation – JD29494******* – Internet Time of bet: 29/03/2013 17:12:45
Print
Selections
1 Over 2.5
Crystal Palace v Birmingham
(Total Goals)
29/03/2013
None
19/20
Won
2 Over 2.5
Colon v Tigre
(Total Goals)
29/03/2013
None
23/20
Won
3 Over 2.5
Videoton FC v BFC Siofok
(Total Goals)
29/03/2013
None
1/2
Won
4 Over 2.5
Bray Wanderers v UCD
(Total Goals)
29/03/2013
None
19/20
Won
4 Folds
Stake
2000.00
Returns
24526.12
……………….. and that is all going on HUNTERS LIGHT in the 6.05 Dubai World cup ;) ;) ;)
Milesey
Nice one Milesey! drinks on you :-)
Won more what with second half in play on videoton, did over 2.5, over 3.5, over 4.5 and over 5.5 and all came in…… and all that money has gone onto JUPITER REX and TENENBAUM …..
Milesey
Jupiter Rex out again 2moro??..only ran a few days ago?..is he going to the well too often???
What made ya do a straight acca on 4 over 2.5 Milesey?..usuall do singles/trixies, lucky 15s etc?
It was a nice safe 4 fold, so went with it, also done the games in play, i tipped over 3.5 in the palace game this morning, then i tipped the over 2.5 in the Bray game earlier, Videoton are always great for the overs, then took alittle risk on colon but it paid off, and i was going to do Derby game anyway what also had 3 goals in it, so paid off ;) ;)
Milesey
Waiting on central coast -1 for 240 , just noticed that they are in 2nd place and the leagues won , william hill offering me 52 pound … Decisions decisions
Lee, it’s not much of a cash-out. If you can bet in-play I’m sure you could make more.
another 1 in that league that looks good is Perth glory anything less than a win will see them miss out on the grand finals play offs its a match were Sydney Fc fans will be tuned in hoping an Adelaide team who are already in the play offs can nick the draw and break Glory fans hearts
Perth Glory
Glory -1
2-0
Think Smelts is out so for me its Travis Dodd to break the deadlock @ 13/2 bet365
Any1 any thoughts on Man u -1 the mara away to Sunderland? 13/8 (skybet)
Looks a gd bet to me with a cple of important players out for Sunderland???
Stevie R, check team news first. If Man U rest players ahead of Monday I can see a 1-0 maybe 2-0. Sunderland will struggle to score.
Hi Danny what are you talking about mate answering back Paul’s fav person, Chris. Don’t know what nonsense is going on it I’ve not said anything. I’ve not been in the site for a few days.
chill mate am not talking about you
Danny can u phone me mate
how
What’s all your predictions for the early central coast game? Looks like a cracking bet?
its a somewhat meaningless game Melbourne heart cant get into the play offs Mariners are already in them and might have an eye on the AFC Champions league a competition I think they take seriously and at the moment are bottom after 2 games on 1 point
didn’t know they can still win plate I thought the big thing they bothered about was winning grand final
SIMILAR to last week’s confrontation, the Mariners will know before they step onto the pitch this Saturday if they can still take out the Premier’s Plate at Bluetongue Stadium with a win against Melbourne Heart.
An undermanned Western Sydney Wanderers will face off against Newcastle Jets in Newcastle tomorrow night and if the Wanderers leave the Hunter with anything but a loss they will guarantee themselves first place. However, if they do taste defeat, Central Coast’s superior goal difference will allow them the chance to pick up the Premier’s Plate in a clash in front of their home crowd against Melbourne Heart.
The Mariners will consider themselves a big chance if given the opportunity, as the Heart have been the worst performers away from home in the Hyundai A-League this season with only one point taken from all away trips.
In their last meeting, Melbourne were left heart broken by two Pedj Bojic goals as the defender picked up a double last December. In round 4, Bojic struck the winner in a 1-0 win at AAMI Park.
Build your excitement for the match with a handful of facts before this Saturday’s game against our last nemesis of the regular season, Melbourne Heart (kick-off 5:30pm).
• Central Coast Mariners have an impressive history against Melbourne Heart having played eight competitive matches in history. Heart have only won once.
• Melbourne Heart have always struggled to break the defence of the Central Coast Mariners having only found the net once in the past five matches against them which was in February 2012 at AAMI Park.
• The Central Coast Mariners’ defence will look to remain stringent. Arnold’s team are hoping to pick up a third successive clean sheet this weekend, something they have not done since November 2010.
• Melbourne Heart will look to take full points from the match as they face a possible fifth straight loss, which would equal their club record.
• Melbourne Heart’s shot stopper Clint Bolton is always a tough man to deceive and if he plays and picks up a clean sheet this week he will equal Michael Theo for the most shutouts in the history of the Hyundai A-League (56).
• Melbourne Heart have never won a match at Bluetongue Stadium and will be eager to break their Central Coast hoodoo.
• Should Joshua Rose play against Heart, he will make his 100th Hyundai A-League appearance. Rose has played 87 games for the Mariners since signing in 2010. He also played 12 games for New Zealand Knights in the inaugural A-League season before joining Romania’s Universitatea Craiova for three seasons.
I don’t comment ever in here but often read and I’m a site regular. If any of you guys generally believe Milesey you’ve got serious issues. His a rip off.
BET365
Bet Confirmation – ED3623824310F
Bet Confirmation – CD0519878610F
Bet Confirmation – CD3150563610F
Bet Confirmation – KD9971592310F
Bet Confirmation – CD5782835910F
Phone up / live chat and get these bets confirmed i have nothing to hide, these are for bet365, would give you details of betfair bets, but due to privacy etc…. not able to do that, but get these checked out, i have nothing to hide.
Milesey ( betfair )
Manager. I think one guy commented on his win. Personally, I’d want to see the readies. And to then say he’s putting it all on one horse is just going to wind people up.
What’s ya verdict Danny mate? Looks like if they want to they could smash them! Just a matter of do they want to!
now that am aware they can still retain there regular season title aye they should do them 3 or 4
Sorry mate I have a life don’t really have the time. Posting fake bets on a site all day :s most of the write ups aren’t yours and most of the acc you win you only post after all the games are finished. Bore me later your probably a 16/17 yo keyboard guy.
Night
*Manager*
Don’t be JEALOUS ;) ;)
Milesey
fake ? i’ve given you all the numbers, you believe they are fake phone up bet365 and give them the confirmation numbers and they will tell you exactly the bet and how much……… don’t be Jealous ;)
Milesey
Yea Mr F my 1st thoughts were 2-0 ..
& u know wat they say ….
Change ur mind & change ur luck! Lol
Bets may have been placed mate. Just not on your account. Haven’t got time to argue with kids. Ha jealous! If I plastered my life over here like you do you’d see I have absolutely no reason to be.
Chow
Manager
What ? makes no sense, oh yeah i place my bets on other peoples accounts, make sense if you want to rant, otherwise f*ck off !!
Milesey
Milesey, you know firing up stakes and wins just riles folk, especially when you’re talking about putting it all on a bet today like it’s confetti. Talking about racing, I can put up the racing if you tell me what you want.
Don’t bother with it, let them go fuck themselves, according to some people they can read it elsewhere so let them fuck off and read it elsewhere, seeing as others pick my horses for me, for i am 14 and can’t even pick my nose hahahahahaha ;) ;)
Use ur brains mate. Could be anyone your associated with accounts. Let the people that make the write ups take the credit and bore off.
Don’t worry someone will come and lick your ass soon mate
saturday
——–
These are worrying times for Martin O’Neill and Sunderland. They’re in freefall, having only picked up three points from their last seven games at a pivotal point of the season, and will hardly be relishing a visit from the champions-elect.
Sitting as they are 15 points clear at the top of the table, United are by far and away the most consistent team in the Premier League, and even though they’re likely to rest players ahead of a crunch FA Cup replay with Chelsea on Monday, the players Ferguson does select will be as keen as mustard to be involved. United will have injuries and suspensions between now and the end of the season and so those fringe players will want to make sure they’re considered when the time comes. Saturday lunchtime at the Stadium of Light will be a time to impress the manager.
At this stage of the season momentum is all-important, and as if Sunderland didn’t have enough to worry about with their woeful form, the news that midfield talisman Lee Cattermole and top-scorer Steven Fletcher are both out for the season will have gone down like a lead balloon in the dressing room.
This is the start of three games for the Black Cats that’ll decide their season. After the visit of United they travel to Chelsea and then have a Tyne-Wear derby at St James’s Park to contend with. Their season in a nutshell, across two weeks. Pressure football.
When I look at Sunderland I see an experienced manager who has achieved many things in his career, but the point is the manager can only do so much. He can’t go onto the pitch and bang the goals in or win the headers and make the tackles. Sunderland need characters and they need people that are going to take responsibility. It’s so difficult when you’re struggling as a team, I’ve been there in my time at Chester City; everyone feels like they’re only a misplaced pass or missed tackle away from conceding yet another goal and going down to another defeat. Thankfully, at Chester we didn’t have teams like United to worry about, something Martin O’Neill and his players are faced with.
As I mentioned earlier, United will undoubtedly rest players for this game, but in short I don’t think it really matters what team Ferguson picks. Sunderland are bereft of confidence, performances and most importantly, goals. Danny Graham has not shown anything to suggest he can replace Fletcher, himself not really among the goals since the turn of the year anyway. United should have far too much for the hosts.
There’s no value in backing United for the straight win, they’re currently just 1.66, but they’ve won their last five league games without conceding a single goal so United to win to nil looks like a good bet at a reasonably generous price of 2.52. Back that and watch this impressive Manchester United team march on towards their 20th championship. Sadly for Sunderland, they’ll merely be closer to the Championship trapdoor.
Recommended Bet
Back Manchester United to win to nil at 2.52
————————————————
Man City 1.34 v Newcastle 11.5; The Draw 5.7
Despite the huge chasm that has developed between the two Manchester clubs in the Premier League table this season, City’s home form has remained solid.
Furthermore, City have won 10 and drawn two of their last 12 Premier League matches against the Magpies and will be looking for their seventh successive PL victory over them in this game. Leaving us little reason to oppose the hosts at 1.34.
Yaya Touré has scored three of City’s last five Premier League goals against Newcastle while Carlos Tevez has scored four goals in his last six Premier League appearances against the Geordies. The Ivorian can be backed at 2.7 and the Argentine at 1.94 to net anytime this weekend.
Best Bet: Back Toure to score anytime @ 2.7
————————————————
Southampton 3.9 v Chelsea 2.14; The Draw 3.65
Having beaten Manchester City and Liverpool at St Mary’s in recent weeks the visit of Chelsea will generate little apprehension for Southampton. However, their recent record of no wins in seven (L4 D3) against the Blues will be a cause for concern.
The 2.14 on an away win looks too short given Saints’ recent results and performances against the league’s bigger clubs, but their record against Chelsea means the home win doesn’t carry much appeal either.
Instead we should opt for a bet on the Half With Most Goals market. Chelsea have conceded a league-high proportion (70%) of their goals in the second half of matches this season, while their tally of goals conceded in the first half (9) is a Premier League low.
Best Bet: Back 2nd Half @ 2.0 in Half With Most Goals
————————————————–
Swansea 3.45 v Tottenham 2.32; The Draw 3.5
With Spurs’ grip on a top-four spot loosening with each passing fixture three points is a necessity this weekend. Fortunately for Andre Villas-Boas’ men, they do have a good record against Swansea having won three and drawn one of the last four meetings.
The Swans have not won any of the 16 Premier League games that they have fallen behind in this season (D6 L10), so the first goal here will be crucial. However, with Spurs at odds of 1.8 to break the deadlock, preference goes to the 2.32 on an away win in the Match Odds betting.
Best Bet: Back Spurs to win @ 2.32
—————————————————
West Ham 2.34 v West Brom 3.5; The Draw 3.45
The last four Premier League meetings between these two sides have ended in a draw and there’s every chance that could be extended to five this weekend.
Having played a game fewer than most of those around them in the table West Ham are reasonably safe from relegation, while West Brom’s season is effectively over with neither relegation nor European qualification a realistic possibility.
Best Bet: Back the Draw @ 3.45
——————————————————
Wigan 1.98 v Norwich 4.2; The Draw 3.75
Question: Should Wigan ever be made odds-on to win any Premier League game against any opposition? Answer: No.
The Latics are traversing an upward form trend, but I cannot justify an odds-on price about any team currently occupying a spot in the relegation zone. Throw into the mix the Opta stat that Wigan have never defeated Norwich in the Premier League and we simply have to take the hosts on here.
No side has won fewer points at home in the Premier League this season than Wigan Athletic, while they have conceded the first goal of the game on 18 occasions this season (a joint league-high) and have won just one of these matches (D2 L15).
Best Bet: Lay Wigan to win @ 1.98
———————————————
Carlos Edwards’ late strike earned Ipswich all three points when they hosted in-form Bolton last time out, continuing their unpredictable run of late.
The Tractor Boys will be striving for some consistency to move away from the bottom three, with four wins, four draws and four defeats coming from their last 12 outings.
Both Anthony Wordsworth and Frank Nouble are back available for Mick McCarthy after missing the previous fixture through injury, but Lee Martin serves the last of his three-match suspension this weekend.
Leeds conceded a late strike at home to Yorkshire rivals Huddersfield in their last outing two weeks ago, falling to a 2-1 defeat at Elland Road and dropping seven points behind the top six.
Before that, United had won two and drawn four of their previous half-dozen league matches, including draws in all of their last three matches on the road.
Strikers Ross McCormack and Steve Morison have returned to training so should be in contention at Portman Road, but Rodolph Austin may be rested after a long journey to Jamaica this week.
Ipswich have won on each of the last three times Leeds have travelled to Portman Road, although United were 2-0 winners at Elland Road earlier this term.
Leeds’ away form has been terrible this term, and now their play-off ambitions are all but over, a desperate Ipswich could capitalise for the points.
Richard Greatorex
Ipswich 2-1 Leeds
Ipswich at 2.10
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The Brewers home fixture against Wycombe was cancelled last weekend but despite that, they still sit one point inside the top three. Gary Rowett hasn’t been complacent though after a restful period as he added former Burton player Lee Fowler on loan from Doncaster, providing some experience to the midfield area.
The Albion have been imperious at home over the whole season, providing their home fans with some sumptuous performances and a massive 14 wins from 19 games. Twelve goals from midfield for Maghoma have been crucial to their success.
The Brewers serve as host to a Chesterfield team that have dented their own promotion bid with five wins from their last fifteen games.
However, Chesterfield aren’t conceding too many of late and their loss to Torquay mid week is the first occasion in eight games, where they have conceded more than one goal, although their recent 1-0 win away to Oxford was extremely flattering as the hosts missed a number of easy chances.
There wasn’t a great deal between these two teams when they met in South Yorkshire and the game ended 1-1. However, it would take a brave soul to back the Spirites at the Pirelli Stadium, with a narrow home win most probable.
David Pettit
Burton Albion 2 Chesterfield 1
Burton to win at 2.04
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Celta Vigo v Barcelona
Saturday 17:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Celta 9.0 Barcelona 1.43 draw 5.0
Celta made a habit of winning this fixture a few years ago, beating Barca at Balaidos in 2002, 2003 and 2004. In the aftermath of international fixtures that sent Alexis Sanchez, Mascherano and Messi to South America and involved Barca’s Spanish stars in two hard games closer to home, we might have fancied them for another upset at a time when Barca have won only 1/4 on the road.
Alas, Iago Aspas is suspended. Opta says he’s been involved in 59 per cent of Celta’s goals this season, which makes him as important to Celta as Messi is to Barcelona.
Adriano, Carles Puyol, Jordi Alba, Pedro, Victor Valdes and Xavi will not make the trip to Galicia, but Tito Vilanova is taking training again.
Barca have been ahead at half-time in 7/11 away wins under Vilanova. Between him and Messi – who has scored in 18 straight league games – there is the nous, skill and inspiration to overcome Celta quickly, even if Tuesday’s game with Paris St Germain is the priority.
Recommended Bet
Back Barcelona/Barcelona @ 2.2
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Real Zaragoza v Real Madrid
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Zaragoza 8.2 Real 1.45 draw 5.1
Three days left and Zaragoza haven’t scored a league goal this month.
They haven’t won any of their last seven at La Romareda, where Real won this fixture 6-0 last season.
Jose Mourinho has a full squad to choose from, but might rest important players like Xabi Alonso ahead of next week’s Champions League match with Galatasaray.
The aim will be to lock down three points as early as possible and a quick win looks achievable: seven of the last 11 goals Zaragoza have let in have come before half-time.
Recommended Bet
Back Real Madrid/Real Madrid @ 2.05
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Match Odds: Schalke 1.62, Hoffe 6.2, the draw 4.4
Schalke and Hoffenheim are operating at opposite ends of the Bundesliga table, but the future remains uncertain for both clubs. Schalke are battling for Champions League qualification with a coach who is far from secure in his job, while Hoffenheim are plunging towards relegation amidst rumours of dressing-room unrest.
Schalke sporting director Horst Heldt was keen to bring coach Armin Veh to the Veltins Arena (the two won the title together at Stuttgart), but instead Veh has signed a contract extension at Eintracht Frankfurt, a direct rival for a top-four finish. Heldt insists current coach Jens Keller could stay on beyond the summer, but the blatant pursuit of Veh was hardly a vote of confidence.
The Royal Blues are fifth in the Bundesliga, and only trail fourth-placed Eintracht on goal difference. Schalke have been licking their wounds during the international break, after they crashed out of the Champions League to Galatasaray and lost 3-0 at Nurnberg. Despite those defeats, Schalke can take solace from their fine form in front of their own fans. Schalke have won eight of their 13 home games in the league. Only Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen have collected more points at home. In Schalke’s last Bundesliga home game they beat Ruhr rivals Borussia Dortmund 2-1, and they average nearly two goals scored per game.
The team news for Schalke is largely encouraging. Midfield enforcer Jermaine Jones will miss out with a foot injury he picked up on international duty, but Benedikt Howedes, Michel Bastos and Julian Draxler are all expected to be fit after injury or illness. The availability of Draxler is particularly significant – the 19-year-old has been excellent since Christmas, scoring four goals and creating another in his last eight league games.
Hoffenheim are four points adrift of escaping the bottom two, and despite an improvement in performances Marco Kurz’s men must start winning regularly to have any chance of avoiding the drop. Hoffe have won just twice since Christmas, and one of those victories was at the bottom side Greuther Furth. TSG have an awful away record, losing nine out of 12 matches.
Since his arrival in mid-December Kurz has improved Hoffe’s defending, bringing the goals conceded per game average down from 2.41 to 0.89. One reason for that improvement has been the steady play of keeper Heurelho Gomes, who was brought in as a replacement for the disastrous Tim Wiese. While Wiese deserved to be dropped, Kurz’s treatment of him has revealed some cracks in the squad. Wiese has been accused of indiscipline, and has been made to train alone, and that decision has been openly criticised by influential players like Sejad Salihovic and Tobias Weis. Such dressing-room divisions did for Kurz’s predecessor Markus Babbel, and they could derail Hoffe’s survival bid.
Schalke have won three of their last four Bundesliga home games (in all three they led at both half-time and full-time), and with Draxler and Bastos fit I think they’ll be too good for a Hoffenheim team that is defending well but has failed to score in four of their last six games.
Recommended Bet
Back Schalke -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.02
Back Schalke/Schalke in the HT/FT market at 2.44
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Augsburg vs Hannover, Sat 14:30 BST
Match Odds: Augsburg 2.14, Hannover 3.95, the draw 3.5
Augsburg are four points clear of the bottom two thanks to a run of three wins in four games, and since Christmas the Bavarians have picked up 15 points and lost just twice. Coach Markus Weinzierl has made significant tactical adjustments to make his team more attacking, and the recent 1-0 win at Hamburg shows FCA have learnt to dig in under pressure.
Hannover are still in the hunt for the top four, but their away form is truly terrible. The Opta stats show that since the start of last season, the 96ers have collected a feeble average of 0.6 points per game on the road. Hannover have the division’s worst away record, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game, and they have lost 16 of their last 19 road games. To make matters worse, top scorer Mame Diouf and midfield dynamo Sergio Pinto are both suspended.
Recommended Bet
Back Augsburg to win at 2.14
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Bordeaux v Lorient (9th v 8th) Sat, 19:00 GMT
We’ve opposed Bordeaux at home several times this season and I’m happy to do so again this weekend.
Bordeaux’s home stats make a mockery of the 1.92 on them winning this game. Their W5-D6-L3 record puts them 15th out of 20 teams in the home form league table. As an essentially counter-attacking side, Bordeaux struggle to create clear scoring chances when the onus is on them to make the play. This explains why they have scored just 12 times in 14 home matches – the joint-lowest scoring tally at home this season.
Lorient are hopeful 11-goal top scorer Jeremie Aliadiere will be back after injury. If so, they will expect to collect a point, because the league table shows they are Bordeaux’s equals (Lorient sit one place and one point above them in the standings) and they have the ability to frustrate Bordeaux at one end while creating chances at the other.
I would back the draw at 3.45 or lay Bordeaux at 1.94.
Valenciennes v Bastia (12th v 14th) Sat, 19:00 GMT
The 2012-13 campaign has turned into a season of two halves for Valenciennes.
As high as fifth in December, the Nordistes played some sparkling football from August to December. Since the turn of the year, though, their form has plummeted. They are bottom of the table based on results over the past 10 games (W1-D4-L5), with just six goals scored in those 10 matches. It’s difficult to say why they have performed so poorly over the past three months, although the January sales of underrated centre-half Gil (Corinthians) and playmaker Foued Kadir (Marseille) didn’t help.
Bastia are unbeaten in three of their past four games and go into this match on the back of a 4-1 victory over Lyon a fortnight ago. The scoreline flattered the Corsicans but they will travel to northern France with plenty of confidence.
At 1.93, Valenciennes are too short. I would lay the hosts.
Rennes v Nancy (10th v 20th) Sat, 19:00 GMT
Nancy may struggle to win this game but I would give them a good chance of scoring.
The Lorraine outfit are rock bottom of the table but have found the net at least once in 17 of their last 19 league games. Their inability to score more than once in matches and to keep clean sheets explains their lowly position.
Nancy’s scoring stats, and Rennes’ poor defensive record – they have conceded in seven of their last eight league games – makes both teams to score the smart selection. Rennes have been less effective going forward since losing 10-goal left winger Romain Alessandrini to injury last month, but the expected return of Julien Feret (nine goals) is a boost this weekend.
Rennes look a little short at 1.74, but instead of opposing the hosts I would back both teams to find the net.
Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Lay Bordeaux at home to Lorient @ 1.94
Lay Valenciennes at home to Bastia @ 1.95
Rennes v Nancy both teams to score @ 1.98
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Inter v Juventus
Saaturday, 14:00
It was Inter who finally ended Juve’s 49 match unbeaten run, creating the most memorable night of the season so far, and with Antonio Conte’s team almost certain of the title, Saturday afternoon in Milan is going to be all about Inter maintaining their position in the race for the European places.
Inter’s current form is a long way from the way that they were shaping when the teams met in Turin. They have won only two of their last eight Serie A matches, losing three of those, and they go into this weekend seventh in the table, four crucial points behind fourth placed Fiorentina. Inter are 3.45 to win on Saturday, with Juventus 2.28 and the draw priced at 3.5.
Juve are clearly the better side, and while we could doubt their desire to put on a big performance (with a Champions League game against Bayern to think about), they were so hurt by that defeat last year that I think that they’ll want revenge. I doubt that Conte will play his full strength side, with Giorgio Chiellini likely to be rested, but even a refreshed Inter may not be good enough against them. Juventus won 2-1 here last season and I think they’ll do so again, by a similar scoreline.
Recommended Bet
Back Juventus to win @ 2.28
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Atalanta v Sampdoria
Saturday, 14:00
I’m not entirely sure why Atalanta are as short as 2.3 to beat Sampdoria this weekend. The perception seems to be that the home team continue to fight relegation, while Samp are pretty much guaranteed a comfortable midtable finish. There might, therefore, be an element of complacency about Delio Rossi’s team.
But Rossi is such a good organiser and motivator that I’d be surprised if Samp put in a substandard display in Bergamo. And remember, a win for Atalanta takes them above Samp, and so the coach will not want to see his team drawn into an unlikely relegation scrap.
Samp have been impressive enough since Rossi took over, losing only twice, and one thing that he has managed to do brilliantly is organise them defensively as evidenced by clean sheets in Naples and Turin, only looking fragile against Cagliari last week. I’m happy to put that down as an anomaly, and give Samp better than a 3.65 chance of winning here.
Atalanta went down fighting against Napoli last time, and their games tend to be full of goals (only one 0-0 draw all season) but if the visitors can stop German Denis and co though, the game could be set up for them. They’ll defend well, look to counter attack, and I think that can work against a team which has already lost five times at home this season.
Recommended Bet
Back Sampdoria to beat Atalanta @ 3.75
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Torino v Napoli
Saturday, 20:00, Live on ESPN
Saturday night’s live match between Torino and Napoli has real potential: not, maybe, as a five goal thriller, but as a chance to see whether a fortnight off domestic duties can galvanise Napoli into the run of form they need to hold onto second place in Serie A.
Napoli haven’t beaten Torino since 1996, and they’re priced at 2.4 to do that on Saturday night.
It was a huge relief to Napoli fans to get their first win since the start of February against Atalanta last time, and with Jesse J lookalike Edinson Cavani getting his first goals in five matches, and Goran Pandev ended a long scoring drought, there will be those who’ll be supporting Napoli for the trip to Turin.
I won’t be one of them though. Torino continue to be one of the most underrated teams in Serie A, and that’s because they play well, and then draw too many games. They’ve been involved in 12 stalemates so far, more than any other side in Serie A, and the form of Alessio Cerci was finally recognised with a call up to the national team. Cerci is Torino’s key man, scoring two in his last four, and I think that Giampaolo Ventura’s side can really trouble Napoli. The visitors’ cause isn’t helped by Cavani’s travel problems these last few days: he’ll either be missing or very tired.
Without Cavani, Napoli shouldn’t be as short as they are, and with Torino looking to frustrate and deny space, they could well be heading for a 13th draw of the season.
Recommended Bet
Back Draw in Torino v Napoli @ 3.3
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Saturday March 30, 17:20 GMT
Live on Sky Sports Two
Another televised Championship game with plenty at stake for both sides and visiting fans being bussed in to avoid any crowd trouble but second-placed Hull should be able to take advantage of the home side’s inconsistency and keep their noses in front in the battle for the second automatic promotion spot.
Huddersfield
A priceless victory over Leeds in their last outing has bought some vital breathing space for the Terriers at the foot of the table but with five points between them and that pivotal 22nd spot, Mark Robins knows they need at least one more win and probably two before he can start planning for next season. His side have been unable to string two decent results together lately, following impressive wins over Burnley and Middlesbrough with defeats at the hand of Brighton and Charlton. The return of Jermaine Beckford from a hamstring injury does give them more of a cutting edge in attack, alongside James Vaughan, who scored the winner at Elland Road.
Hull
Bruce’s men have hardly been a model of consistency either (is there such a thing in this league?), interspersing three losses with three wins in their last six, but those defeats were at the hands of high-flying Crystal Palace and the two hottest sides on current form – Bolton and Nottingham Forest. Against sides from the lower half of the table they have been plenty solid enough in 2013, disposing of the likes of Charlton, Burnley, Derby, Millwall and Blackburn with relative ease. Their away form is bettered only by Palace’s and an ability to grind out results at places like The John Smith’s Stadium is the reason they are currently second (though Palace or Watford may have displaced them by the time this game kicks off).
Match Odds
The visitors are available to back at 2.32 and that’s big enough for me to back them outright.
Correct Score
Hull’s success against sides from the lower half of the table is based around keeping it very tight in defence and pouncing when the opportunity presents itself-as evidenced by 1-0 wins over Burnley, Charlton and Millwall so I’ll also back them to win by a single goal here.
Recommended Bets
Back Hull to win at 2.32
Back Hull to win 1-0 at 7.4
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Tony ‘The Bomber’ Bellew has what it takes to beat Isaac Chilemba on Saturday night…
There is definitely a buzz about boxing in Liverpool at the moment and fast-talking, big-punching ticket seller Tony Bellew is enjoying the ride. And with the city preparing to celebrate the forthcoming Grand National, Bellew must himself negotiate a tricky obstacle in Isaac Chilemba this weekend if he is to realise his own International ambitions.
Bellew is ranked No1 contender with the WBC while Chilemba is just above him in both the WBO and WBA rankings so he is on the brink of another world title fight. Remember Bellew was a very last minute substitute when narrowly failing to dethrone WBO champion Nathan Cleverly 18 months ago. Since then Bellew’s reputation has soared along with his ranking and there is a growing maturity coursing through his work. He looks ready for the next, big step but he must keep winning.
Isaac Chilemba is not just an opponent, this is a potential platform for him too so expect his performance to reflect the opportunity but you do question whether he is quite good enough. Chilemba outpointed faded star Edison Miranda last February and Miranda was stopped in nine rounds seven months later by Bellew. Prior to that Chilemba earned a split-decision draw against unbeaten South African Thomas Oosthuizen so he has the ability if not enough to excite you into backing him.
Bellew though is developing into a rounded fighter, perhaps a lesson learned from his up-and-down victory over Ovill McKenzie three years ago, which means he’s more disciplined these days and a championship, distance fighter because of it. ‘Bomber’ still has the power, the two early knockdowns he registered against Roberto Bolonti in November were enough to encourage the Argentinian into his shell but he was careful in his rematch (points win) against McKenzie previously and certainly took his time against the faded Miranda. Personally I think Bellew over-egged the pudding in both wins, something he’ll have to be careful of in future title fights because I sense Bellew thinks he’s doing better than he actually is.
But this is an opportunity to look good against a credible opponent with the backing of home support and Bellew is expected to rise to the occasion. Tony was outstanding under pressure last time when seriously cut, knowing defeat would plunge his future into doubt. His mature response was the stuff of a champion and a win here would put him closer to being just that. If Chilemba gets through the first few rounds it might be another distance win for Bellew.
Recommended Bet
Back Tony Bellew to beat Isaac Chilemba by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.3
Support act to Bellew is a rematch of last April’s terrific scrap between Derry Matthews and Anthony Crolla, a bout Matthews surprisingly won by sixth round stoppage after a compelling battle.
Matthews turned that fight around with a lovely uppercut to claim the British Lightweight crown, a belt he subsequently lost when stopped himself by former world champion Gavin Rees. Like Bellew, Matthews is a scouser with home support and this is a classic Liverpool v Manchester match.
Both men lost at the semi-final stage of October’s Prizefighter but don’t read too much into that and they’ve both won since. Crolla might have had the better preparation for a battle having come through a tear-up with Kieran Farrell in December though Farrell was stretchered from the ring that night and sadly has been forced to retire.
I’m not sure if that will be an issue at all but Crolla has seemed focused when I’ve worked alongside him on BoxNation. Matthews has locked himself away at camp up in Scotland and both seem in excellent shape. This is a toss-up.
Tactically, Matthews got it right last time, working his chances from distance and using the uppercut well against an in-range fighter. You sense that he might just have the style to beat Crolla again although I’m expecting an improved effort from Anthony. He made the better start last time and hurt Matthews to the body; If the fight goes past halfway I would fancy Crolla to emerge victorious from a gruelling contest but it won’t be easy.
Crolla fights in close range to his opponent so he needs to be tough and energetic in behind that tight guard. It means he is always in for a hard night and this is certain to be that. Crolla was 1.15 favourite to beat Matthews last time and I sense there is feeling Derry might have produced the performance of his life to win and therefore might not be able to repeat it. I get that theory but I’m not sure I agree. If push comes to shove down the stretch then Crolla probably wins but Matthews has the style and punch to prevail again in what promises to be a roller coaster contest.
Recommended Bet
Back Derry Matthews to win at 2.4
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HORSE RACING
————-
My tips for the national and what i have backed for the win and places:
JOIN TOGETHER 20-1
RARE BOB 33-1
QUISCOVER FONTAINE 50-1
and onto todays racing………………
** NAP ** Jupiter Rex (2:45 Newton Abbot) ** NAP **
1:55 DON William Hill Spring Mile ** DUBAI H ILLS **
2:05 HAY Tim Molony Handicap Chase ** KING FONTAINE **
2:20 KEM BetVictor Magnolia Stakes ** GENZY **
2:40 HAY BetVictor Handicap Hurdle ** LIFETIME **
2:55 KEM BetVictor.com Rosebery Handicap ** GREYLAMI **
3:05 DON William Hill Lincoln ** LAHAAG **
3:15 HAY BetVictor.com Levy Board Handicap Chase ** SYDNEY PAGET **
3:35 MUS totepool.com Royal Mile (Handicap) ** NEWSTEAG ABBEY **
3:50 HAY BetVictor Handicap Chase ** REGINALDINHO **
6.05 Dubai World Cup ** HUNTERS LIGHT **
The Dubai World Cup night card
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A lot of the talk about those in the Godolphin Mile (13:10) surrounds Soft Falling Rain and he could literally still be anything, but his form in Dubai isn’t particularly strong and I think Surfer offers plenty of value against him. Surfer has finished behind Hunter’s Light on his last two starts, both over further than the 1m he runs over on World Cup night, and the drop in trip looks sure to suit given he hit the front on both of those occasions before tiring. He is well drawn and looks to have slipped under the radar a little bit.
Tenenbaum is my idea of the best bet of the meeting in the Dubai Gold Cup at 13:45. He was patiently handled by Andre Fabre last year, progressing as he stepped up in trip, and he caught my eye on his recent reappearance when staying on steadily into fourth behind Ahzeemah, set too much to do and faring much better than Saddler’s Rock, for all the prices don’t reflect that.
What value there was in backing Secret Number for the UAE Derby at 14:25 has all gone and I think Lines of Battle can upset the favourite. It wouldn’t be much of an upset in truth, Aidan O’Brien’s charge thought good enough to run in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf last year, and he was far from disgraced having been forced wide throughout. Daddy Long Legs had a similar profile to this one prior to winning the race 12 months ago and Lines Of Battle is worth supporting to repeat the feat.
Shea Shea is a short price in the Al Quoz Sprint at 15:05 but he’s very difficult to oppose. Like so many of the Mike de Kock runners, he was badly in need of his reappearance before showing his true colours last time when bolting up in the Meydan Sprint. He had several of his rivals in behind, and whilst the likes of Sole Power and Spirit Quartz can be expected to finish closer with that run under their belts, it will be a surprise if either are good enough to reverse form.
The Dubai Golden Shaheen at 15:45 looks far harder to solve. Mental was impressive on his reappearance and is a worthy favourite but the draw is hardly ideal so it might be worth trying to find something at a bigger price and Kavanagh fits the bill. On the book he isn’t entitled to beat Mental, he was a length behind him in the Al Shindagha Sprint and is now 5 lb worse off, but he went for home soon enough that day before Mental pounced from much further back. Kavanagh has won on turf since then and is worth risking at double-figure odds.
Trade Storm is priced up more on visual impression than solid form in the 16:40 but in a race where nothing can boast a solid profile, it is worth sticking with David Simcock’s charge. He has flourished in Dubai this season, winning his last two starts with loads in hand, and whilst he is a prisoner to luck given how he is ridden, he has the right man for the job in Jamie Spencer. Godolphin are reportedly very confident about Sajjhaa and you could do worse than back the pair.
It’s hard to know what to make of Gentildonna in the Dubai Sheema Classic at 17:20, and a short price is enough to have me looking elsewhere. Await The Dawn probably didn’t achieve a great deal when winning a handicap on his penultimate start but he was very impressive in doing so and I maintain he wasn’t seen to best effect in a messy race more recently. There should be a sound pace on here, which will suit Await The Dawn who is being reinvented by Mike de Kock as a hold-up horse and he is the value call.
The World Cup itself which concludes matters at 18:05 is a cracking renewal and I think Godolphin can win it. Whether it is with Hunter’s Light or African Story I am not quite sure, the latter certainly a very interesting runner given the Godolphin Mile would have been a far easier assignment. He should stay and needs to be kept safe but Hunter’s Light just gets the verdict. He can boast an excellent strike rate, clearly loves this tapeta surface and is positively thriving at present, a good draw in stall 4 sealing matters.
All times GMT
Back Surfer in the 13:10
Back Tenenbaum in the 13:45 (NAP)
Back Lines Of Battle in the 14:25
Back Shea Shea in the 15:05 (NB)
Back Kavanagh in the 15:45
Back Trade Storm in the 16:40
Back Await The Dawn in the 17:20
Back Hunter’s Light in the 18:05
The Dubai World Cup night card
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A lot of the talk about those in the Godolphin Mile (13:10) surrounds Soft Falling Rain and he could literally still be anything, but his form in Dubai isn’t particularly strong and I think Surfer offers plenty of value against him. Surfer has finished behind Hunter’s Light on his last two starts, both over further than the 1m he runs over on World Cup night, and the drop in trip looks sure to suit given he hit the front on both of those occasions before tiring. He is well drawn and looks to have slipped under the radar a little bit.
Tenenbaum is my idea of the best bet of the meeting in the Dubai Gold Cup at 13:45. He was patiently handled by Andre Fabre last year, progressing as he stepped up in trip, and he caught my eye on his recent reappearance when staying on steadily into fourth behind Ahzeemah, set too much to do and faring much better than Saddler’s Rock, for all the prices don’t reflect that.
What value there was in backing Secret Number for the UAE Derby at 14:25 has all gone and I think Lines of Battle can upset the favourite. It wouldn’t be much of an upset in truth, Aidan O’Brien’s charge thought good enough to run in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf last year, and he was far from disgraced having been forced wide throughout. Daddy Long Legs had a similar profile to this one prior to winning the race 12 months ago and Lines Of Battle is worth supporting to repeat the feat.
Shea Shea is a short price in the Al Quoz Sprint at 15:05 but he’s very difficult to oppose. Like so many of the Mike de Kock runners, he was badly in need of his reappearance before showing his true colours last time when bolting up in the Meydan Sprint. He had several of his rivals in behind, and whilst the likes of Sole Power and Spirit Quartz can be expected to finish closer with that run under their belts, it will be a surprise if either are good enough to reverse form.
The Dubai Golden Shaheen at 15:45 looks far harder to solve. Mental was impressive on his reappearance and is a worthy favourite but the draw is hardly ideal so it might be worth trying to find something at a bigger price and Kavanagh fits the bill. On the book he isn’t entitled to beat Mental, he was a length behind him in the Al Shindagha Sprint and is now 5 lb worse off, but he went for home soon enough that day before Mental pounced from much further back. Kavanagh has won on turf since then and is worth risking at double-figure odds.
Trade Storm is priced up more on visual impression than solid form in the 16:40 but in a race where nothing can boast a solid profile, it is worth sticking with David Simcock’s charge. He has flourished in Dubai this season, winning his last two starts with loads in hand, and whilst he is a prisoner to luck given how he is ridden, he has the right man for the job in Jamie Spencer. Godolphin are reportedly very confident about Sajjhaa and you could do worse than back the pair.
It’s hard to know what to make of Gentildonna in the Dubai Sheema Classic at 17:20, and a short price is enough to have me looking elsewhere. Await The Dawn probably didn’t achieve a great deal when winning a handicap on his penultimate start but he was very impressive in doing so and I maintain he wasn’t seen to best effect in a messy race more recently. There should be a sound pace on here, which will suit Await The Dawn who is being reinvented by Mike de Kock as a hold-up horse and he is the value call.
The World Cup itself which concludes matters at 18:05 is a cracking renewal and I think Godolphin can win it. Whether it is with Hunter’s Light or African Story I am not quite sure, the latter certainly a very interesting runner given the Godolphin Mile would have been a far easier assignment. He should stay and needs to be kept safe but Hunter’s Light just gets the verdict. He can boast an excellent strike rate, clearly loves this tapeta surface and is positively thriving at present, a good draw in stall 4 sealing matters.
All times GMT
Back Surfer in the 13:10
Back Tenenbaum in the 13:45 (NAP)
Back Lines Of Battle in the 14:25
Back Shea Shea in the 15:05 (NB)
Back Kavanagh in the 15:45
Back Trade Storm in the 16:40
Back Await The Dawn in the 17:20
Back Hunter’s Light in the 18:05
the world’s richest race, the Dubai World Cup…
Treasure Beach was an Irish Derby winner in his time but failed to win for Aidan O’Brien last year, best effort when second to Point Of Entry in a Grade 1. Promising debut for this yard and should build on that.
Red Cadeux is a tough and reliable sort who won a couple last year, including the Hong Kong Vase on his final start. Shorter trip and different surface to contend with here so looks opposable.
Dullahan is a high-class performer in America if not the most consistent, best effort last year when winning a Grade 1 at Del Mar. Got worked up and trip sharp enough on return and claims on best form.
Hunter’s Light has an impressive strike rate, and has been most progressive at Meydan this year, winning the second and third legs of the Maktoum Challenge with plenty in hand. Looks one of the leading candidates.
Capponi progressed well in 2012, winning the third round of the Maktoum Challenge before finishing second in this corresponding event. Not seen since then which is a concern.
Side Glance is a consistent performer who won Epsom Group 3 last June before finishing placed on his next 4 starts. Good run behind Sajjhaa on return but should be outclassed in this.
Planteur is a very smart performer, whose 4 outings last term all came at the highest level, including when placed in Dubai World Cup. Made all to win listed race on return and could sneak a place again.
Royal Delta was well held in this last year but things didn’t pan out for her and she’s improved since then, winning 4 times in 2012. Confirmed wellbeing with recent win at Gulfstream and a leading player.
Meandre won a pair of Group 1’s last season, victory over Shareta at Saint-Cloud the pick of them. Held his form well otherwise and should come on for reappearance when tackling an unsuitable trip.
Monterosso won the Dubai World Cup in 2012, but has been well beaten since then, not showing a great deal when down the field behind Hunter’s Light latest. Could easily peak in this again but enough to prove.
African Story has an excellent record on this surface, winning 4 times including the Godolphin Mile last year. Better than ever on return when landing the Burj Nahaar and intriguing contender if staying.
Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby in 2011 but last season was curtailed due to injury (was due to run in this). Has come back looking better than ever, second to Point Of Entry recently, and a leading player.
Kassiano has been progressing really well, winning 3 of his 5 starts this year. Best effort in defeat when second to Hunter’s Light last time and could easily reach a place once more under ideal conditions.
1. Hunter’s Light
2. Royal Delta
3. African Story
The Americans have struggled since this race was switched to tapeta and whilst this is their strongest challenge for some time, they may struggle to contain Hunter’s Light who is a horse that is simply thriving under these conditions. Royal Delta looks the best of those from the States with African Story an intriguing contender if seeing out this longer trip.
sunday
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Aston Villa v Liverpool, Sunday 1:30, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Aston Villa: 5.1, Liverpool 1.8, The Draw 4.0.
Brendan Rodgers and Paul Lambert made their Premier League managerial debuts last season with Swansea and Norwich respectively, guiding unfancied sides to comfortable midtable positions, and earning themselves a job at a bigger club in the process.
However, while Rodgers finds himself challenging for the European places with Liverpool, Lambert has endured a much more difficult campaign at Aston Villa – they’re currently three points outside the relegation zone, but 18th-placed Wigan have a game in hand, and a superior goal difference.
There’s good reason for Lambert to be positive ahead of this contest, though – mainly because he keeps getting the better of Rodgers in their head-to-head clashes. Last season, his Norwich side won 3-1 against Swansea at home, before a couple of great tactical switches resulted in an exciting 3-2 victory away. Meanwhile, Villa’s best performance of the season came away at Anfield in December, with a superb 3-1 victory.
We shouldn’t read too much into three matches, especially as a double change of club is involved midway through, but the pattern has become familiar: Lambert allows Rodgers’ side to dominate possession, then focuses upon breaking quickly at an exposed defence.
Besides, Villa are actually in good form. Victories over Reading and QPR in their previous two matches were absolutely crucial to their chances of survival, and while Liverpool is a significantly more difficult test, Villa proved at Anfield that they have the right tools to play quality football.
First, there’s Christian Benteke. His sheer strength and link-up play caused Daniel Agger and Martin Skrtel all kinds of problems earlier in the season, and Villa will look to get the ball to him as quickly as possible. Expect rapid forward runs from Gabriel Agbonlahor and Andreas Weimann on either flank – they’ll look to break past Glen Johnson and Jose Enrique Liverpool’s long passing moves break down.
Charles N’Zogbia is pushing for a start, and Fabian Delph is back following suspension, but it would be a surprise if Lambert didn’t continue with the midfield trio of Ashley Westwood, Barry Bannan and Yacouba Sylla, who have started Villa’s last two matches. Westwood will sit deep, with Bannan spraying passes from a left-centre position and Sylla battling to the right.
Usually, it’s difficult to predict whether Rodgers will use a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1 formation. The latter seems to suit Liverpool more, but too frequently Rodgers has selected the cautious option, with Joe Allen part of a three-man midfield. The Welshman’s injury might be a blessing in disguise – it’s possible Jordan Henderson could be used in advanced role, but it seems more likely Coutinho and Stewart Downing will play on the flanks, with Luis Suarez just behind Daniel Sturridge.
That would mean a big role for Westwood, sitting in front of the back four – he’ll be charged with stopping Suarez. He has an excellent disciplinary record this season, with just one yellow card from 20 starts, although he’ll appreciate close support from Bannan – Sylla could play higher, told to press Steven Gerrard. But Villa’s approach will be about containing Liverpool, before playing quickly on the break, so the whole side should be able to sit deep and compact.
This seems like yet another game where Liverpool are underpriced. On paper they’re clearly the better side, but there’s a few factors (Villa’s win at Anfield, their two victories on the bounce, Lambert’s good record against Rodgers, and the fact Liverpool have had more players away on international duty this week) to suggest that 1.8 for Liverpool is far too short. I will certainly lay Liverpool at that price.
However, Villa haven’t kept a clean sheet since the home fixture with Stoke at the start of December. With Suarez, Sturridge and Coutinho in the same side, Liverpool will surely have goals in them – so backing Both Teams To Score at 1.75 also looks promising.
Recommended bets:
Lay Liverpool at 1.8
Back Both Teams To Score at 1.75
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Kasımpaşa vs Bursaspor
Sunday 11:30
It’s fourth against fifth in the Turkish Super League on Sunday morning as Bursaspor head North to Istanbul to take on Kasimpasa. Both teams have so far enjoyed solid seasons and are only separated by goal difference.
Realistically as per usual the championship will be a tussle between the three Istanbul giants so for teams such as Bursaspor and Kasimpasa a Europa League qualification place is the prize to strive for. At the moment Kasimpasa cling on to the last place but there are a host of clubs hot on their tails.
It’s been a very impressive campaign for Kasimpasa, after being promoted last year they have adapted remarkably well to the top flight. Rangers’ old boy Shota Arveladze has proved himself to be an astute coach, his team are performing, especially at home where they have won three of their last four.
Their success has been built on two main factors; the tightest defence in the league and the exceptional form of Kala Uche. The Nigerian striker was signed from Espanyol last summer and since his arrival he’s netted 15 times, he is second only to Galtasaray’s Yilmaz in the goal scorer charts.
Visitors Bursaspor miss that kind of player. They have a decent squad with numerous internationals but they don’t have a talismanic forward that can be relied on.
Veterans Tuncay and Sestak were both trusty strikers in their day but the goals have dried up for those two years ago. Chilean Sebastian Pinto has delivered occasionally but the most reliable goal getter on their team sheet is usually the Argentinean Pablo Batalla, his partnership with countrymen Belluschi in midfield is what makes Bursa tick.
With both teams locked on 40 points and reluctant not to give the opposition the opportunity to overtake this could well be a cagey affair.
Bursa have been less than impressive on the road against teams in the top half of the table and so expect Kasimpasa to sneak a tight encounter and with Kasimpasa’s miserly defence it makes sense to look at the unders in the goal line.
Recommended Bet:
Back Kasimpasa to win 1-0 @ 8.4
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.86
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Sonderjyske vs Randers
Sunday 14:00
Next up is a look at a big match from the Danish Superliga as struggling Sonderjyske host second placed Randers. Two teams that need a result for totally different reasons.
Sonderjyske have had a miserable season so far, after finishing in mid table last year their performances have disappointed this time. Last week they got a much needed win as they thumped bottom team Silkeborg by five goals but before that result their form had been shocking.
The biggest letdown has been their calamitous home record, they’ve only managed one win in their 11 home games, it’s no wonder that they have the lowest attendance in the league.
The most consistent performers for the South Jutlanders have been Lasse Vibe who bagged a hatrick last week and the Icelandic midfielder Eyjolfur Hedinsson who’s a real talent and a regular goal threat.
Randers have exceeded expectations, after promotion last year they are sitting comfortably in third place with only the dominant Copenhagen team and Nordsjaelland ahead of them. The top two get Champions League qualifier spaces and Randers are only a point off Nordsjaelland. If they can nudge in front and then hang tough it would be a huge accomplishment for manager Colin Todd and his team.
Most of the attention and accolades this year are going to Copenhagens young striking sensation Arnelius Cornelius but Randers have another player that has performed almost to the same level. Ronnie Shwartz has already scored 12 goals and is the key component to ‘The blue Horses’ lofty position in the league.
Matches involving Sonderjyske tend to be entertaining so expect goals. Their dismal home form points towards another loss but last week’s victory may have lifted spirits.
Randers will want to take advantage of playing before Nodsjaelland and should attack from the outset. It’s all set to be a good watch and there’s potential for trading in this one.
Being on a bad run at home becomes habitual and I can see Sonderjyske getting their noses in front before throwing it away.
Recommended Bet:
Back over 2.5 Goals @ 2.02
Back Randers @ 2.56
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Espanyol v Real Sociedad
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Espanyol 2.76 Sociedad 2.82 draw 3.35
Javier Aguirre’s Espanyol are unbeaten at home (W5-D2-L0). Philippe Montanier’s Real Sociedad are ten games unbeaten home and away (W6-D4-L0).
Espanyol have enjoyed good results against Sociedad in recent years, losing only once in 11 meetings, but have scored only three goals in their last five games.
Sociedad shattered Atletico Madrid’s perfect home record earlier this month and rate a bet at 2.82 to spoil Aguirre’s numbers too.
Recommended Bet
Back Real Sociedad @ 2.82
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Atletico Madrid v Valencia
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Atletico 1.83 Valencia 5.2 draw 3.8
Atletico Madrid have won 13/14 at the Vicente Calderon this season. The goals have dried up a bit – 27 in the first eight, then seven in the last six – but a narrow win is definitely on this weekend.
Ernesto Valverde’s visitors have lost once in eight, but their away record is padded by a series of single-goal victories over some of La Liga’s strugglers.
Los Che have not done badly in this fixture recently (W2-D2-L3), but for a while now they have been regular losers on trips to top-six teams: W3-D3-L21 since 2007 (W2-D2-L12 if you exclude results against Barca and Real).
Let’s go further: they have been behind at half-time in 18/21 defeats at top-six teams (12/12 excluding the Big Two).
Recommended Bet
Back Atletico/Atletico @ 3.0
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Match Odds: Greuther 3.3, Eintracht 2.44, the draw 3.4
These teams were Bundesliga Zwei’s top two last season, but their paths have diverged significantly this term. Eintracht made some excellent summer signings, and despite a six match winless run they are still in the top four. Although the Eagles have been struggling, their recent away displays haven’t been too bad. They ground out creditable draws at Freiburg and Hannover, and won 2-0 at Hamburg. Armin Veh’s men have kept clean sheets in four of their last six away games.
Greuther played well in the recent 2-2 draw at Werder Bremen as new coach Frank Kramer took charge, but the bottom side’s home record beggars belief. The Clover Leaves haven’t scored at home this year, and they haven’t secured a home win all season.
Recommended Bets
Back Eintracht to win at 2.44
Back Eintracht to keep a clean sheet at 2.96
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Northampton Saints v Leicester Tigers
Saturday, 15:00
Northampton Saints have given themselves a great chance of reaching the play-offs after four consecutive league wins. Jim Mallinder has steered them towards their target after a blip last month. The Saints left it late to snatch the points at Wasps last weekend but confidence is quietly building at Franklin’s Gardens.
Leicester Tigers are on course to finish in the top two of the Premiership again after putting together a decent run of form. Richard Cockerill’s side’s only league defeats since November have been against Sarries and Quins. The Tigers have also accumulated the best away record with 27 points this season.
There is always a fierce rivalry between the sides and this clash will be no different. The Tigers have had all the answers recently having won the last six encounters. Both teams come into the match with momentum behind them and this is likely to be decided by small margins. But Leicester could have the edge and it is worth siding with the visitors to take the win.
Recommended Bet
Back Leicester Tigers to win at 2.0
———————————————–
London Irish v Sale Sharks
Sunday, 14:15
London Irish made a very slow start to the season but the last few months have been promising especially at home. The Exiles have not lost at the Madejski Stadium since December and confidence is building in front of their own supporters. Five consecutive home wins have helped move Brian Smith’s side ten points clear of the bottom.
It has been a tough campaign for Sale Sharks but after spending the first half of the season at the foot of the table they are finally moving upwards. Three wins in their last five league games have helped them leapfrog London Welsh. But the Sharks have struggled on the road with only one victory in the Premiership.
This basement battle could go a long way to ensuring survival for the winners. London Irish’s form at home bodes extremely well and the Sharks have remained brittle in their away matches. Sale have failed to win in Reading since 2006 and the smart money has to go on the Exiles claiming the points.
Recommended Bet
Back London Irish to win at 1.45
GOLF
—–
AFTER SECOND ROUND
—————–
Trophee Hassan II
LEADER -12
T24 Michael Hoey @ 76.0 -1
T31 Emiliano Grillo @ 130.0 E
T39 Graeme Storm @ 270.0 +1
T44 John Parry @ 250.0 +2
T58 Freddie Andersson-Hed @ 130.0 +3
T73 Alvaro Quiros @ 60.0 +4
———————————–
CUT
James Morrison @ 290.0 +5
Rhys Davies @ 160.0 +5
Damien McGrane @ 130.0 +10
Gregory Bourdy @ 40.0 +12
——————-
Shell Houston Open
LEADER -10
T9 Ben Crane @ 176.0 -5
T16 Boo Weekley @ 170.0 -4
T26 Jimmy Walker @ 41.0 -3
T26 Chris Kirk @ 41.0 -3
T39 Graham DeLaet @ 120.0 -2
T39 Gary Woodland @ 101.0 -2
T54 Phil Mickelson @ 18.5 -1
—————————–
CUT
T79 Ryan Palmer @ 120.0 +1
Milesey ( betfair )
Tottenham
Ipswich
Hull
Schalke
4 fold
Personally i am going to be taking MAN UTD And SCHALKE both on the -1 asian handicap.
Milesey
Nice one Milesy!
Don’t quite understand why so many people here seem to spend so much time b!tching about the guy who makes more money for us all with his winning tips than anyone else.
Keep up the good work.
Bad day for me after that big loss :( go again tmo
Good tip on the Murray game, it was never gonna be straight sets or straight forward, Gasquet fell away in last set, happy wiv the overs tip, it maybe same again, although Murray hasn’t played his best yet, he may deliver it in the final