Euro 2014, quarter-final, Kiev, Sunday, 7.45pm
I'VE tipped three out of three in the quarter-finals – and hoping to complete the full house on Sunday.
Admittedly, Portugal and Germany were easy to back while Spain were also favourites. However, bookies are finding it difficult to split England and Italy – and so am I.
There is no doubt though about the man who will take centre stage, Mario Balotelli, as he faces up to team-mates such as Joe Hart and Joleon Lescott.
I won a few quid backing Balotelli to be booked first in Italy's opener against Spain and can't resist a repeat attempt at a best 10-1 at sportingbet. Just to be carded he is 13-8 at Ladbrokes.
England's midfield enforcer Scott Parker is even shorter at 5-4 at Betfred to be carded and
11-1 at sportingbet to see the first card. Parker is 3-1 favourite with Ladbrokes to be first to foul Parker with his Man City mate Lescott a 4-1 chance.
One thing bookies seem certain of is a lack of goals between two nations who don’t give much away.
It should be a tense nervy affair and a 1-1 draw, 5-1 at Skybet, is the scoreline that leaps out to me. England have only won one of their last nine against Italy and five of those games have featured one goal or less.
Unibet offer odds of 5-4 on under 1.5 goals. Three of six games between the sides in this tournament have finished 1-1 and that scoreline after 90 minutes is generally available at
11-2. Under 2.5 goals pays no better than 1-2 (various).
To win England are a biggest 19-10 at BetVictor while Italy are 19-10with the same firm and a draw 21-10 (various). Both sides are 10-11 to qualify.
To win after extra time you can have either side at 12-1 with William Hill. The match to go to penalties is 9-2 with bet365 but that might not be too dreaded for the English – after all it’s not Germany they’re facing.
Italy don’t have a great shootout record (two out of seven) and if it goes all the way I’d be on Roy Hodgson’s men to win although their record is one out of six.
Both sides to go through via a shoot-out pays 10-1 (various). So I’m tipping England for the third game running – and you can imagine the stick I’m getting for that.
Rooney is first-scorer favourite at 5-1 (various) and 13-10 (unibet) while you can have Balotelli at 13-2 (various) and 2-1 (various) anytime.
Punters up and down the land have been backing Rooney to net with his head after nodding the winner against Ukraine. Ladbrokes have cut the striker from 8-1 to 6-1 to head home.
The match is expected to break bet-in-play records and Ladbrokes predict turnover will be more than £1million after the game has started. If punters take the three lions’ share – as they did thanks to Ronaldo on Thursday – I’ll happily take an England win.
Recommendations
Draw
(21-10, various)
England to win on penalties
(11-1, sportingbet)
Ballotelli to be booked
(2-1, various)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Paul can’t see Scott Parker at 16/1 for first card with Betfred. Only 10/1 and a best price of 11/1
Chris, I’ll check the prices later. 16-1 was what they sent me but must have changed. I’m hoping it won’t be 0-0 and have a feeling about 1-1. In the end I’ll probably back both teams to win on penalties but you know why I’ll be on England for the shoot-out.
ano everyone is tuned into euro betting but few teams caught my eye for tommorow
hammarby-osters btts 4-6
stabaek not to score 1/1
varberg to beat brage 5-6
£10 pays £61.11
Danny, if none of these games have started I’ll do this treble saying I don’t plan on much betting today. If it comes up I’ll buy you a pint in the Goldenhill, a past haunt of mine.
quality Paul hope it comes up goldenhill is a good call not to keen on the old doublet
Brutal Paul wish it hadn’t caught the eye now these weirdo leagues cannot be trusted stick to what a know from now own
Danny, no worries, saved me the cost of a pint.
1-1 looks a great shout to me paul. But can you see anything but a spain germany final?
Alex, I tipped a Germany v Portugal final before the quarters so I have to stick with that. Spain are there for the taking if you can get the ball off them. Portugal at least have someone who can be a matchwinner on his own in Ronaldo while France didn’t have that. Portugal and Spain are neighbours and a lot of their players, including Ronaldo of course, have experience of Spanish football so I wouldn’t write them off. If Ronaldo is at their best and they defend well they could pull it off. Spain haven’t impressed me at all but remain very hard to beat.
Here are my bets for tomorrow:
£60 on Balotelli first booking @ 10/1
£40 on Balotelli to be booked @ 6/4
£50 on 0-0 @ 7/1
£60 on 1-1 @ 11/2
£20 on England 1-0 @ 6/1
£50 on half time draw full time draw @ 7/2
£10 on ht England ft draw @ 16/1
£10 on ht Italy ft draw @ 16/1
£50 on England to win on penalties @ 10/1
£20 on Italy to win on penalties @ 10/1
I might have to reconsider my bets £400 a bit mental for betting on what is a difficult prediction. What you backing yourself Paul? How much you putting on England to win on penalties if you don’t mind me asking? Is £50 a bit overboard?
Chris, I’ve only stuck a tenner on England to win on penalties. I wouldn’t consider £50 on such a bet. And as I’ve said thinking about Terry for first scorer, 28-1 at Ladbrokes. That would make up for missing out on Lahm and Alonson. There was a lot of chat on here about Alonso but I went with Iniesta.
Think it was daft to do the £100 on Balotelli bet to be honest but hopefully it will pay off. Ht ft could be a tricky one. Might be best just to stick to 0-0 and 1-1.
I done Alonso to score the winning goal @ 55/1 through paddy power but when I checked my account it had said lost!!!
I’ll go into my local shop today and see whats going on.
That doesn’t make sense David. They should have paid out cos he scored both.
Chris I was just on live chat through their website and they said money will be in my account within an hour.
It was only a quid I put on it but its better than nothing
Thats good mate well done. I’m sick, was going to back Alonso but paper said 20/1 and he was only 16/1 in the shop so I just left it. Stupidity really
I always try and go with my gut instinct mate. Most of the time giving the bookies my money ahah
Since england v italy came up ive thot its got draw written all over it. Just startin to lean towards italians now. Theyve came thru a much harder group and cuda probably shuda beat spain. England are hard to beat and been fortunate but i think the italians might just sneak it tonight. Not confident enough for a serious bet. If england do go thru i think it will have to be 0-0 and a penalties job.
Joe, it’s probably just one to watch. I’ve taken England to win on penalties and thinking about a silly first scorer for an interest, maybe Terry with Chiellini out.
100th cap syndrome again last night mr fixit £10 on alonso fgs at 20/1 which doubled after the 2nd goal :-)
Didn’t realise it at the time but it’s happened a couple of times recently.
watch with that link i posted it was advertised on tv so thought it would be fine but seems to have drove my computer mad
Gone with a Small bet on Italy, if England win am happy, if Italy win I’m happy because I won money.
Too tight to call, am tempted on Balotelli getting red card, just because he a liability!
Paul, Terry is 33/1 with Stan James and Victor Chandler.
That’s my bets finally decided.
£100 on 1-1 @ 5/1
£50 on 0-0 @ 7/1
£60 on Balotelli first player booked @ 10/1
£40 on Balotelli to be booked anytime @ 6/4
£40 on England to win on penalties @ 10/1
£10 on Italy to win on penalties @ 10/1
£15 on John Terry first goal @ 33/1
£15 on John Terry last goal @ 33/1
Hoping Bolatelli gets an early booking that would be great!!
After I seen the odds of Rooney 1 – 0 @ 40/1 against France a thought it was worth a tenna!
I am going for the same odds same score different gls this time.
Captain fantastic Stevie G he deserves a goal, and pirlo will give him the space to do so
Ermmmmm at the start of your tis for this match you clam to have made a clean swee of redictions in the quaterfinals mr fixit but that is far from the truth,your tis for spain v frnce were for sain to win by 1 goal and iniesta to score…both were wrong and for the germany match v greece your tip was for germany to win to nil which again was wrong,greece scored TWO!!!you are tipping a draw in this match now,with your record so far ill stick my neck out and say england will win and rooney anytime scorer…lets see who gets it right
Honest John, I like that one and here we go again. I never used the expression “clean sweep” regarding all forecasts. I tipped the correct results for Germany, Portugal and Spain which are the basic predictions which punters want. On top of that I always give other tips for games that provide a bit more value and some are right and others wrong. I don’t care if you get Rooney and England to score right. I’m not competing against you.
Been a good last 3 nights for me. Not goin mad tonight but took Italy single, Italy HT/FT and 7 wee scorecast bets. Germany Spain final would be a big hit for me so fingers crossed. Good luck tonight everyone :)
Honest John mr fixit is referring to the fact he piicked the winners of the 3 quarter finals. The other bets are him trying to find a bit of value for us punters. He does quite well with them and i use some of his bets with some of my own and also like the info/stats he finds. I’ve done well lately doing this. Will u be on posting tomorrow if u get it wrong john?
Chris, Joe, Andy and everyone else who has been on here recently if you bet in-play with bet365 and post details here if you pick a winner I’ll give one of you a free tenner bet on any outright market. Check the post on bet365’s free in-play bet offer on tonight’s match.
Tomorrow he will be posting as honest James.
Honest John I’ll wager you £200 that you’re wrong
Jonny honest,Its not just chance that Mrfixit has his own paper column and website…
Everyone thinks they a betting expert, if betting were easy everyone would be rich.
Like Joe said mrfixit has his own methods (which I like) but nothing in anything is a guarantee…
It’s always negative nonsense some posters drop in with
…where is the praise from these said posters though??
HEY,HEY,CALM DOWN,CALM DOWN!!!im just stating the facts that his predictions were wrong and ill take that 200 notes wager with you chris gay if you will state your winner goal scorer prediction also,he stated he was going for a ”clean sweep” of predictions in the quaters yet his revious tips roved that was wrong,just stating what is written thats all,anyone could have predicted germany spain and ortugal would win,doesnt take a rocket science formula to come up with that!!
But what are you achieving from it?, you don’t like it f*ck off, don’t comment…
that valerenga are having a bubble down to 10
Well said andy w. Totally agree with you mate!
I fancy 1-1 tonight I had backed Spain 1-0 last night so was unlucky.Also it gets tighter come the knock out stages more so when sides are evenly matched.
Ive a feeling that danny silverback may get a goal tonight also,may add him to my bet
Yrahni know the feeling. I stuck £120 on a Finnish team to win ht ft. I’d never heard of them before but they were 1/4 at home. They drew 1-1 in the end. Someone tipped them and I think it was you mate lol.
Chris I never got the money in my account. Checked my emails and had this:
Hi David,
Thank you for contacting Paddy Power Live Help Customer Support.
I have received some confirmation on the “Player to Score Winning Goal” that you were discussing with one of our operators earlier.
The “Winning Goal” market is defined as scoring the last goal for your team and your team wins by exactly 1 goal. If the match ends up a draw or the margin of victory is greater than one then all bets are losers. Bets will be voided on all players who play no part in the match.
I hope this clears the issue up for you however if you have any further queries please click here to avail of our Live Help.
Kind Regards,
Christopher
Paddy Power Customer Service
What do you think about it Paul ?? or anyone else..
David, I think most bookies will define it as last goal scored in a one-goal win because otherwise it’s not the winner. They will work out the odds as for example Spain to win and Alonso to score last. I’ll ask a couple of questions and see what other bookies think. But again if you’re punting these kind of markets it’s always advisable to check the t’s and c’s.
Anyway my only bet tonight is spain 1-0 HT 1-1 FT… a wee tenner on it. I think it could be a tight affair
hahaha got Spain in the head from emailing them.. England 1-0 HT 1-1 FT
David, have had this reply from a rival bookmaker to Paddy Power.
“I have always gone with those rules whenever I have offered a winning goal price. Needs to be the last goal and win by one clear goal. A bit of a blow considering how late the pen was to be fair but I am with Paddy Power on this one.”
Thanks anyway mate. Appreciated
pirlo 1st gl and 3-1, marchisio 1st gl and 2-1
just found a coupan in my drawer
portugal
germany
spain
england
£1.50 returns £15.31 william hill
come on you engerland well tonight anyway
Mr F. What price do you think germany will be if they play england in the semi?
Alex, answered that earlier. Probably about evens unless there is a massive patriotic bet on England and it goes higher.
Joe hart man of mouth 20/1 hills surely worth a bet if joe hart has a shut out
@alex it would depend how they play tonight if they scrape a penalties win I imagine something like 5/6
If they win well and play well then evens
Cant see past Italy tonight, put my winnings from ronaldo f/goal on a Spain and Italy double.Did anyone watch the England Ukraine game
That will do for me paul. Might even go -1. The germans are to good for both england and italy!
Italy XI: Buffon, Abate, Bonucci, Barzagli, Balzaretti, Montolivo, Pirlo, Marchisio, De Rossi, Cassano, Balotelli. #EURO2012 #Italy”
glad ma 2 players are starting, think folk are gettin a bit ahead of themselves talkin bout germany england semi, can never write off italy in any major tourny as theyre always there about, sane with ze germans.C’MON ITALIA!!!!
Yeah I agree also but it just seems so unfortunate considering Alonso scored both goals.
Another corners bet I like.. Italy on the handicap -1 @ 11/10. Maybe not as clear cut as the Germany/ Greece corners bet but can see England being under the cosh more than Italy in this one
Anyone know why Maggio not starting?? Thought he was a real threat in a real threat in other games.
bets on today are as follows.. italy to score 4 or more goals @28/1..parker first card shown…ballotelli first goal scorer..and game to have over 5.5 goal 25/1
oh i forgot ballotelli man of the match
Balotelli 1st goal for me 15/2! Can’t pick a score too close to call but hope Italy win! Good luck all
Funny how balotelli doesnt posture or shout at the bench when he fluffs it!!
seems like just a matter of time an ballatv will score
Ballatv :) like it! Anyone see anything in play they fancy? Im thinking Italy 1-0 correct score.
The germans will murder either of this lot!
Alex, got to agree with you on that one.
Stuck my free in play punt with b365 on Italy England on the draw at f/t
OK, Guy, well done for getting it on. Looks down again to me.
took yonks to get thru to b365 Paul….
Stuck a wee bet on cassano next goal.
3/1 Italy. Anyone fancy it??
Not in 90 minutes I don’t.
If England qualify tonight it will be a total robbery altho Joachim low must be hoping they do as he will be able to rest players again!!
Joe, Germans must be loving this. Extra time and they have two extra days’ rest. Reckon German price will fall fast for their semi-final once it’s up.
That felt like Chelsea vs Bayern all over again….reckon italy will nick it in extra time.
Brutal 0-0. 10/11 match to go to PKs is tempting now.
Gary, it’s what I fancied all along. But hoped it wouldn’t be 0-0. Unders was a good bet.
shocking, if they go thro ill jump off the forth road brig
Took 1-0 italy after ET. Wee score @ 7/2.
I think you will be lucky to get 4-6 germany for the semi!
hope england go out wit are they commentators like what a way to go out a missed cross from a westham reject
“a miss hit cross from a westham reject” quality
thats why we hate the english!!!!!!
Danny and david u took the words out my mouth. I think a worse way to go out would be on pens against a team who ground out a 0-0 for 120 mins.
Lawrenson is surely the worst co-commentator going. Utterly horrendous chat.
England were very poor – Italy have to go through for the sake of Football.
Got on that 10/11 ET draw before it kicked off, along with Italy to qualify at 4/5.
So, for so many reasons, COME ON ITALY
Toughy for Chris Guy…
Good lift if Eng win on pens but it’ll be on every channel for the next 2 days solid!! (inc Babestation)
whos the reject now haha haha haha
justice has been done! England were as bad as greece!
hahhahaahhahahahahahahahaha danny, u beat me to it yyyaaaaasssssss!!!!!! goodbye england, anyone else in great britain inc ireland id be cheering them on but the commentators,media ex-players make us HATE them. well done hart for the studyin he done when buffon was wathin pornos hahahaha yas!!!
Very bad penalty from Ashley Cole. England threw it away. Anyway a profitable night but would have been even more profitable if England won on Penalties. My 0-0 came up and my 1-1 bet was refunded with paddy power because the game went to penalties. Also i covered myself with italy to win on penalties.
Total stake £330
Total return £610 (could have been £940)
Total profit £280
Chris, also covered myself with Italy to win on pens. I thought it would be pens all along but a wee feeling England would finally one. Was all over the draw and under 1.5 and 2.5 goals. Dare I say, four out of four predictions correct on the quarter-finals so I’ll probably get stick for that.
Early prices for Germany to beat Italy 10/11 Bet365/StanJ
10to11 germany. If you need money sell the house cause they will murder italy! Nite nite!
Germany should win but real history between Itly and Germany….its the one team the Germans would not want to play at anytime…Italy usually have the upper hand. I’d be wary of lumping on the Germans.
Guy, I hear what you’re saying, But having watched all the games I’ll be quite happy to lump all the Germans.
Yeah I know Paul to be honest your simply not good enough. I’d be expecting at least 5 out of 4
EARLY PRICE SPAIN vs PORTUGAL
Hey everyone what about Alonso first Goalscorer? After his double I think 20/1 with Paddy Power is too big to miss out on. Especially with him taking the penalties. He is as short as 10/1 with William Hill and Betfred.
What about to score at anytime? A massive price of 17/2 also with Paddy Power. Price as short as 7/2 with William Hill!
Chris, the 17-2 looks big but too early for me really. However, I’ll be having some of that 10-11 on Germany.
Yeah Paul just tried to back Alonso anytime and stake restricted to £5. I phoned them and it went through no bother. It appears if you phone after midnight they accept the bets. I know it’s a few days away but I expect the 17/2 to drop fairly quickly as best price elsewhere is 5/1
Got £60 on him anytime @ 17/2 and £20 first and £20 last at 20/1. Basically if he scores first or last goal I’ll get £990. Good bet I think
Chris, if you’re playing with bookies money it’s a great bet.
Ifbhe scores anywhere in between I get £570
Germany to win both halves 11/2 with Paddy Power Paul and only 7/2 with Ladbrokes
Yeah Paul its my £100 which paddy power refunded