Euro 2012 quarter-final, Warsaw, Thursday, 7.45pm
I TIPPED Germany on the anteposts and I'm comfortable with that selection at the moment.
The Germans are the new 9-4 Euro 2012 favourites because they have an easier quarter-final than Spain.
Joachim Low's men are expected to beat Greece and set up a semi-final with England or Italy. I'm loathe to write off the chances of the world champions but without David Villa they have lacked a cutting edge.
So it's still Germany for me and I've had a small wager on a Germany-Portugal final at 11-2 with Ladbrokes. I've been impressed with the Portuguese so far and fully expected them to qualify when they faced Holland in a make-or-break Group B finale.
Paulo Bento's side recovered well from losing the opener and of course Cristiano Ronaldo announced himself on the tournament with two goals.
With that weight lifted off the Real Madrid star's shoulders I expect him to fire Portugal into the last four tonight.
I still can't believe the Czech Republic are in the tournament. I saw how poor they were in Scotland's group – then they started Euro 2012 with a 4-1 thrashing by Russia.
But victories against two ordinary sides – Greece and Poland – mean they're still on the go while nations such Holland, Russia and Croatia are on the beaches.
However, it ends here for the Czechs who simply won't be able to live with Cristiano Ronaldo if he takes his turns up in Warsaw with his A game.
To be fair to the Czechs they outplayed Poland but have little up front. Milan Baros has contributed nothing so two-goal Petr Jiracek is their best bet of a strike.
But it's the Portuguese for me at a best 3-4 (various) and I'd consider them to win to nil at 13-8 at Paddy Power and bet365. To qualify the Portuguese are just 4-11 at Ladbrokes and Paddy Power.
However, the Czechs have scored in 12 of their last 13 at the Euro finals so anyone who likes to go with the stats should instead consider both teams to score at 11-10 with William Hill.
Now he's off the mark Ronaldo must be the man to back to break the deadlock at 4-1 with Ladbrokes and BetVictor. He is 5-4 at Ladbrokes to net at any time.
And if you fancy the ex-Man United ace to net another double you can have 11-2 at Paddy Power and bet365.
Ronaldo is 5-2 with bet365 to score more goals than the combined total of the Czech Republic team but 8-13 to fire a blank.
If Ronaldo plays well and scores he's likely to be named man of the match and that pays no bigger than 15-8 at boylesports.
Hitman Helder Postiga is 7-1 with the likes of Ladbrokes to score first with Nani, who missed a couple of chances against the Dutch, 9-1 at BetVictor.
The Czechs are a 9-2 (various) to win the game while the draw pays 5-2. A stalemate will force extra time and possibly penalties and to win on a shoot-out both countries are 14-1 at William Hill. The Czechs are 18-1 to win after extra time with Portugal 10-1.
Recommendations
Ronaldo to score first
(4-1, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
Ronaldo MoM
(15-8, boylesports)
Portugal win to nil
(13-8, Paddy Power, bet365)
Germany v Portugal final
(11-2, Ladbrokes)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
Just out bookies n must think like ur self. was go put 100 on Portugal but have hedged bets a. bit n get more value. done Ronaldo /Portugal double. Portugal win to nil. Ronaldo 1st. n a treble fame+glory , Portugal + Germany so basicly all hinging on Portugal. !! tho is all profit i made other night with some left. been good money made so far n more to come in next 10 days
Simon, like yourself I’ve taken an opinion on Portugal and Ronaldo. One thng I’d say, this is the quarter-final of a major tournament so there should be no easy games. The Czechs have made it through on merit but I just think on their game the Portuguese are better.
Paul av gone for ronaldo and portugal to win at 15to8. I think it is buying money! If he plays like he does for real madrid the czechs will get hammered!
Alex, I don’t rate the Czechs but I don’t think they’ll get hammered. I looked at taking Portugal -1 but it’s probably being disrespectful to the Czechs. I’ll be happy if Portugal win and Ronaldo scores (first preferably).
simon, good luck wi fame and glory, i’ve took colour vision(ex mark johnston) in that race in an e/w acca with mister marc, shirocco star and switzerland(MJ). the 1st Ascot mention this wk :)
Craig, as you know I don’t do much on the horses because I have to concentrate on football. But I did notice Ladbrokes offering 7-2 if you bet via your mobile on a Fame and Glory and Portugal double. Seemed a decent price.
Hope your right about the final as I’ve still got Portugal ew at 20s and a very large amount resting on Germany to reach the semi’s at least. Looking forward to the game tomorrow!!
Done a portugal germany spain treble.
Joe, I’d be happy with a big double on Portugal and Germany. I need to think more about whether to take Spain.
Did you get enhanced on that treble joe?
i know, cant look at anyhing else bar the euro’s just now, at least weve got 4 days of it it til the next break. just got £10 transferred in bank for smokes and wee gamble tonight.
portugal £2 8/11
portugal -1 £1 11/5
ronaldo 1st gl £1 4/1
2*50p scorcasts ronaldo 2-0 or 3-1 25/1 40/1
£1 ronaldo anytine
will be shocked if portugal dont win this
Craig id circled colourvision this morning but afterreading lots on it i plumped. for fame n glory. but good luck
Backed Porugal single, Portugal Gerrmany double and Portugal to keep a clean sheet.
Not touching Ronaldo as he doesn’t produce the good often enough for his national side to justify the price which seems to be cut shorter now anyway. PP’s MBS is good for anyone wanting a punt on someone else to open the scoring. Some big prices outwith Ronaldo, having said that not many natural goalscorers outwith Ronaldo. Another PP special which aims to distract punters from the obvious selection that’ll increase their liability.
Marc, might have a little dabble on Nani with Paddy Power.
detorri the legand does it again on colour vision, shame about unplaced mister marc in the 1st or widve been waiting on switzerland for decent return in the nxt
Bet your glad to stuck to the footy paul. Fame and glory got well beat!
Alex, it seemed like everyone but Craig was tipping it up but I wouldn’t have taken such a short price anyway. That’s why I mentioned the 7-2.
my last 4 bets have been backing under 2.5 goals with Lads and have come up trumps { Mon and Tues games ) ive got a wee notion that the 4 quarter finals wont be far away either
Not got much on tonight’s game, will hit Germany heavy tomorrow. Ladbrokes have Ronaldo motm at 9/4 in the shop on their coupon. Anyway here are my bets for tonight.
£40 Ronaldo first goal @ 4/1
£20 Ronaldo last goal @ 4/1
£20 2-0 Portugal @ 8/1
£10 2-0 Ronaldo scorecast @ 30/1
£3 3-0 Ronaldo scorecast @ 66/1
not much chris haha, its hard earned after that shift tho :)
no rosicky again for czechs, starts on bench
Robert I was thinking the same as you. Unders in every game apart from Germany game. I’d back the other 3 quarter finals for under 2.5
Paul if your thinking of Nani why don’t you do both Ronaldo and Nani. Ladbrokes refunding first scorers as a free bet up to £100 if Nani scores first or last goal.
Chris, it’s exactly what I’ve done. Just in from Ladbrokes and backed Ronaldo and have done Nani with Paddy Power so I need one of the to score first.
Craig I know I say not much like its £2 I’m putting on but in reality I know £100 is still Lot of money. I put it down to the fact that I’ve got used to betting with large stakes. Only downside to that is I always expect big wins. I remover I used to be happy with winning £100 but now when input on large stakes I hope for a minimum profit of £300.
Like Paul says if I put £100 on a striker at 5/1 then all I need is 1 in 5 to come up to make at least £100 profit. I do get carried away sometimes. I do tend to be quite lucky with goalscorers but at £100 a shot you can be wiped out fairly quickly.
Take the 4to5 spain lads. Big bust up in the french camp!
Thanks Alex. Good advice.
Took ur advice paul and went decent size bet on portugal germany double.Cant see past them. Few wee speculative bets also – ronaldo 2-0, ronaldo 3-1 and postiga 2-1. Good luck all :)
i know chris, just havin a laugh, seen people having digs at u for bettin large stakes but if i had the £ i’d be doin the same, thats the fun of bettin.
most peoples £ on ronaldo so hope he doesnt flop tonight or i hope they go out
Ok, Craig and everyone else. A little bit of fun, especially for the guys playing with smaller stakes. If Ronaldo or Nani score first tonight I’ll give £25 to the person who guesses nearest the time of the LAST goal inside 90 minutes. Give me it in minutes and seconds please, for example, 83:32. I’ll give you until the start of the second half to enter but of course people who enter before can take a chance on a first-half goal being scored last. It’s about to you.
Taken Nani with PP so cash back if Ronaldo scores first.
Just backed Ronaldo as well seeing as it seems everyone else is on him!!
Marc, doesn’t mean we’ll all be right. There is no guarantee with first scorers just different odds of it happening.
78:32
David, thanks for getting us started.
51m 23s.
Cheers and good luck to everyone on the Ronaldo/Portugal double
Hi Paul,
Just went with a Ronaldo First Scorer 3/1 though dd/hh.
Like you I think Nani will score hes due a goal.
Meanty ask how did u get on with the Rooney Sub bet??
Last Goal time 64:49
David, how close can Ronaldo get without scoring. Hoping Portugal start second half like they finished the first because that was much better.
David, verdict on the Rooney sub bet was that 7-2 was reckoned to be too big as soon as the traders saw it. I’m sure it was a price put up by the PR guys. It was taken off then cut, taken down and cut again. At the end of the day they knew the price was wrong and as the liabilities stacked up had no choice but to try to cut their losses. Unfortunately odds are always subject to change and if a mistake is made it can be amended.
90 33
I wonder if at Half-time and its still 0-0. you will get 8/1 for Ronaldo next goal again.
David, you can bet you won’t.
72.49
72.49
79:00 minutes for last goal for me.
72.10
72.10
72.10
72.10
Last goal 67:20
74.30
Great bit of Skill from Ronnie! cant believe he hit the post!
Bet365 have Roanldo next goal 4/1 and anytime 15/8??
Worth a punt
84.25
78.16
Good man
78.16
Good man
78.16
Good man
49:11
Ronalfo missing with an overhead kick, hitting the post etc. come on Ronaldo!!
meant 83:33!
Czech looking poor. I think 2-0 still possible
they need to get a gl soon lke, bookies must be lovin this
If Portugal don’t win this with chances they had. Agghh. come on
Portugal run out of ideas and Ronaldo not getting the service. Think we need a bit of luck troops
NEVER IN DOUBT, now press for another in last 10 for double
ronnie saves the day
Phew!! That been a LONG LONG time coming… I did a Chris Guy tonight and dropped a tonne on Ronnie!
Andy, nice one. Reckon we were all on Ronaldo on this site plus taking advantage of the moneyback specials. Bad night for bookies so far.
Good luck Chris Guy – if Ronnie scores again he’s looking at a very nice night’s work
What’s the official goal time??
Chris Guy this could be a very good night for you. Just a pity you werent able to stake what you usually do. But a Wins a Win:D
Thanks Paul, i had 50 on Nani too, which will be refunded.
Finally now made up my losses and am now up again!
3mins hold on for us all. come on
Passes. well done all. wages for all
I made the goal time about 78:48, if only my bets were as accurate! :)
David, by the time I’d stopped celebrating it was at 79. I’ll get an exact time then confirm the £25 winner.
David, first goal time confirmed at 78:49 so you were 11 seconds out. A couple of folk were close but you were closest. So please email your address to mrfixit@dailyrecord.co.uk and I’ll send you £25 at the end of the tournament.
Good night all round for punters. I weighed in on Hills match winner Portugal to win and Ronaldo to score anytime at 2/1. Happy days!
Absolutely top night!! All my bets win and the only one that didn’t was refunded. Just under 500 profit on that
Marc, ditto and a wee double on Ronaldo/Gomez running on to tomorrow.
well done david, picked 79 mins haha 12 secs out, was waiting on 1 of them scorin 1st half then fogot bout it, couldnt have got much closer than 12 secs tho haha
Craig, is everyone happy with 78:48? By the way tonight’s tips on the game were: Ronaldo to score first (4-1, Ladbrokes, BetVictor), Ronaldo MoM (15-8, boylesports), Portugal win to nil (13-8, Paddy Power, bet365) and Germany v Portugal final (11-2, Ladbrokes). He must be MoM and a chance of the last one coming up too.
Good night for everyone by the sounds of it. Bookies hammered again. Hey chris the night after england game when u had ur dispute with pp i heard him bleating on next day about losing 1/4 million! Thot u might like that. Probably same again tonight.
Joe, Ladbrokes lost £250,000 on Rooney goal alone so they might be feeling the pinch. Reckon Paddy will be on to me or Chris Guy looking for a tap!
Nice one Paul! I’ve got Portugal Germany double, and Portugal, Germany, Spain treble running aswell as Portugal EW and my big Germany bet to come.
Marc, could be a few profitable days ahead for quite a few.
Nice one paul. I got same fgs dble but with iniesta anytime thrown in. Fingers crossed!
Happy days for everyone now get on Italy at 19/10
Looks like everybody got cash to play with at the wkend! First time in my life that av wanted ronaldo to score. Now for gomez and the germans 2morrow! MOM must be between rnaldo and peter chech surely! Great tipping paul. Keep them coming mate!
Alex, has to be Ronaldo MoM, reckon Cech would have got if his side had won although the saves he made he should have made.
Paul nice tips mate. Well done to you and everyone else. I thought for a min it was going to be 0-0 then Robaldo would have went on to score a double in extra time.
Thanks everyone for the kind comments and well done to you all too. It’s nice to see everyone from the group make a profit.
I think the bookies got a right good old bashing today. They must have been cursing that goal because 0-0 would have been great for them. William Hill must have taken a pounding also as their special was Portugal and Ronaldo anytime at 5/2 which was then cut to 2/1.
Andy well done with the £100 stake. Feels good doesn’t it?
David I could have out more on but I’m waiting for £950 being paid into my account. It should be in my account by tomorrow but I didn’t want to risk betting hundreds incase I didn’t have enough money to bet large on the Germany game.
Joe glad they lost 1/4 million pounds mate. I’m happy that I was a beneficiary to their payout.
Ithe first few results were 50/50 on bookie wins but I think the punters have wiped the bookies out over the past few games to be fair. Hats off to the bookies for their money back specials also. If your wise you can make good cover of your bets, like Nr Fixit did. Some good money back specials to be had.
I would just like to thank Paul (Mr Fixit) for having this great website. It beats alot of other tipping websites and best thing is, it’s free. I also love the fact that punters can interact with one another including Paul and give their views tips and opinions on the matches.
Keep up the good work Paul.
Let’s continue with the bookie bashing everyone.
Chris, it was a great night and it could be more of the same tomorrow. Can see a similar type of game with hopefully Gomez scoring and Germany winning 1-0 or 2-0. Just going to walk the dog and finish off my tips on tomorrow’s game which will be on the site at 8am.
Paul the tips you give out like tonite do you single them or put a small accumulator on them? Hope you did both tonite mate!
Alex, they were all singles apart from a Ronaldo to score and Portugal to win (5-2 wincast). As Chris says you can’t do accumulators on these related bets but anyway I prefer doing singles as long as I have the required staking power.
Paul I read the racing post today and they were tipping Schweinsteiger first goal at 14/1 and 5/1 anytime. According to the racing post he is on penalties. What you think Paul. I fancy Gomez so I may do both as many websites refunding if Gomez scores first. It’s obvious that bookies are trying their best to detract people from the most likely outcome
Chris, my piece for the Daily Record is of course already at the printers and I’ve tipped Gomez to score first and Schweinsteiger at any time. He is their penalty taker although I’ve seen suggestions that Gomez might take them and remember Schweinsteiger missed in the Champions League Final shoot-out. Gomez will be desperate to be on them in the race for the Golden Boot. I’m thinking doing the same as I did tonight when I backed Ronaldo and Nani to score first and had my Nani losing stake refunded. For me it’s Gomez first and probably Schweinsteiger with it being refunded if Gomez beats hm to it.
Can’t do an accumulator with most bets Alex as most are related bets unfortunately
Sorry your right chris forgot about that! ozil to score and germany to win 4to1 with hills. The lad is due a goal.!
Might have a bit of that Alex
Decisions decisions. Do I go with Gomez 3/1 dd hh with Betfred or do I back him at 3/1 with Boylesports (refunded if he scores second).
Chris, if I had to choose one it would be the latter. Could be another 1-0 and similar to the Portugal game. I can’t see Greece attacking much but they have a couple of first-choice defenders missing. 1-0 or 2-0 is a possibility if Germany don’t score in the first hour or so. Although I’ve been looking at Gomez maybe scoring two I think one is more realistic.
fancy him to get 2, maybe even 3 tomorrow, greece will have 10 men behind the ball aw game but think wi schweinsteinger and ozil will be far too much for them, as long as gomez doesnt have a game lke champs league final
17 corners tonight in the Portugal game, early thoughts on that market tomorrow? Scanning for value bets everywhere ha, can see it being a lot like to iget though with Germany all over Greece and Greece just putting te ball out for corners ha, also Germany ave way a lot of corners in qualifying so I think a market well worth looking at
George, you have to think it will be all Germany. There should be plenty of corners unless Germany go a couple of goals ahead early on. If that happens they’ll conserve energy for the semi-finals.
Think William Hill trying to claw their money back with Germany Ozil at 4/1. Doesnt interest me at all.
Greece gave Russia 12 corners in their game where they were under a fair bit of attack, when you compare a Russian attack to a German attack I can see a lot more corners, I’m lumping on ha, biggest stakes of the comp yet!
Cheers Paul, email sent!