Euro 2012 quarter-final, Warsaw, Thursday, 7.45pm
I TIPPED Germany on the anteposts and I'm comfortable with that selection at the moment.
The Germans are the new 9-4 Euro 2012 favourites because they have an easier quarter-final than Spain.
Joachim Low's men are expected to beat Greece and set up a semi-final with England or Italy. I'm loathe to write off the chances of the world champions but without David Villa they have lacked a cutting edge.
So it's still Germany for me and I've had a small wager on a Germany-Portugal final at 11-2 with Ladbrokes. I've been impressed with the Portuguese so far and fully expected them to qualify when they faced Holland in a make-or-break Group B finale.
Paulo Bento's side recovered well from losing the opener and of course Cristiano Ronaldo announced himself on the tournament with two goals.
With that weight lifted off the Real Madrid star's shoulders I expect him to fire Portugal into the last four tonight.
I still can't believe the Czech Republic are in the tournament. I saw how poor they were in Scotland's group – then they started Euro 2012 with a 4-1 thrashing by Russia.
But victories against two ordinary sides – Greece and Poland – mean they're still on the go while nations such Holland, Russia and Croatia are on the beaches.
However, it ends here for the Czechs who simply won't be able to live with Cristiano Ronaldo if he takes his turns up in Warsaw with his A game.
To be fair to the Czechs they outplayed Poland but have little up front. Milan Baros has contributed nothing so two-goal Petr Jiracek is their best bet of a strike.
Ronaldo is 5-2 with bet365 to score more goals than the combined total of the Czech Republic team but 8-13 to fire a blank.
If Ronaldo plays well and scores he's likely to be named man of the match and that pays no bigger than 15-8 at boylesports.
The Czechs are a 9-2 (various) to win the game while the draw pays 5-2. A stalemate will force extra time and possibly penalties and to win on a shoot-out both countries are 14-1 at William Hill. The Czechs are 18-1 to win after extra time with Portugal 10-1.
Germany v Portugal final