Tuesday was a painful day at the office.
Both horses were beaten by closers and were pipped on the line.
Brazilian Belle sat closer to the pace under Connor Beasley. She got to the front with a furlong to go, but that man, Paul Mulrennan, came and slapped me in the face after yesterday's debacle.
Elvetham was hammered into 11/8F at Musselburgh on his stable debut. He was pestered for the lead for a couple of furlongs, and in hindsight, that might have cost him. He eventually got his own way in front, and looked home and hosed until the last fifty yards when he started to flap. The closer managed to get to him and got up on the line.
Magic Box 13/8 (2pt) – Catterick 3.00
It's hard to get too excited about Magic Box in this race, but coming from the in-form William Haggas stable, she is the one to beat.
The opposition that faces Magic Box isn't at a great level, so I am more than happy to go for Haggas' runner. He has a 31% strike rate with juvenile runners at this track, which is a big positive in a season which hasn't been too kind for William's two-year-old runners. He has only had two winners this season, Magic Box being one of them.
The step up to seven furlongs looks worth a try. She was a strong finisher over 7f on the AW the time before last, and put in a similar performance back on the turf last time out over a furlong shorter. The recent rain should not be a problem for her. She is by Showcasing, who is a sire who has produced soft ground horses. To back that up further, the dam (who wasn't that good) is by Dubawi, who is another sire who has produced his fair share of soft ground winners.
Ever Driven 20/1 (0.5pt EW, 3pl) – Doncaster 6.20
It takes a fair bit of faith to back Ever Driven with me, but if there was ever a horse who hasn't raced on soft ground but should love it, is this guy.
Ever Driven is out of form and has not managed to win a race yet in his career, which has just seven races. There has been hints of ability in a couple of his races, but more ofdten than not, he had struggled. There is a possibility that he hasn't raced on ground which suits him. His Sire, Dam ,and full-brother have all got form on soft ground, including some good wins. There is a possibility that he needs soft ground, but hasn't been given it. Based on that, I am happy enough to take a chance on the odds of 20/1.
Tom Dascombe isn't based in the north anymore, so having a runner at Doncaster is a long way for him to go. He has two runners on Wednesday, the other is at Catterick. His main jockey, Pierre-Louis Jamin, has opted to go to Doncaster, which is nice to see and gives me a little more encouragement.
The odds would suggest we've got little chance, but seeing them travel and actually trying him on a slow surface gives me hope.
GambleAware