I'm sticking this up early, as I do think the odds might drop on Fernando.
Usually, I like to wait till all selections have run. However, Temper Trap runs at 8.40 pm in the last race at Hamilton, and that's a long wait.
Arrange ran earlier in the day and should have won. For a seven-year-old with so much experience, it was a shame to see her run keenly. By doing that, she ruined her chance of winning that race, which was there for the taking. She didn't lose by a big margin, which makes it even more annoying.
Fernando 9/1 (0.5pt EW, 3pl) – Salisbury 3.00
Some of the older horses towards the top of the weights are interesting on their current handicap marks, but I couldn't get away from Fernando on his second start for Edward Smyth-Osbourne.
Edward is a trainer on the rise, and he is doing very well with the small string of horses he has. His strike rate is at 19% this season, which is 6/32. He has been very profitable to follow with his three-year-olds this season on turf. In this specific field, he has managed to get three winners from eight runners, with a further two being placed. This has recorded a profit of +45.50 to £1 level stakes.
Fernando has already had a start for Edward, but that came on the all-weather at the start of the year. He didn't run the best, but they opted for a break after that, and this is the first time we've seen him in 173 days. If the stable has managed to improve him over the summer, I think he is very dangerous off a mark of 67. He won off a mark of 65 last year, and given he is still very young and lightly raced, improvement is likely.
On his return, fitness is the main question mark. However, Keiran Shoemark is booked, and he is 2/3 for the yard with his only defeat coming as a runner-up finish. Kieran is +35.50 for the yard, so he is a noticeable booking.
Leap Day 12/1 (1pt) – Beverley 4.15
Towards the bottom of the weights, albeit not a low weight, is Leap Day. He has been going close and running consistently well off handicaps in and around his mark of today. Today's race doesn't look like the strongest, and after going well for the majority of the season, today might be the day he gets his head back in front.
Leap Day has only won once in his career, and that win came in a Class 5, so you can arguably say he isn't up to winning at this level. I think that is wrong. He has gone very close in two Class 3 races across the last couple of years, which shows he is more than capable of winning if everything goes right. Those runs were off much higher marks than today's rating, which gives him an even better chance in a weak Class 4.
His form in the earlier stages of this season should make him go close. The yard is firing on all cylinders at present, which is always a nice sign when you realise how many horses Tim Easterby trains and sends out on a weekly basis.
There are two places on offer, so I'd rather take a chance on a straight win. I actually can't believe he is 12/1, I had him much shorter for this, by at least half his price.
GambleAware