Arabian Poet made it two 2pt wins in just as many days.
Full marks to Dougie Costello, who made the decision to get to the front and dictated the pace perfectly. The horse was tenacious and was headed in the homestraight but showed his stamina by plugging on.
Bishop's Crown was weak in the market, broke slowly out of the gates and was never in contention.
Arrange 11/2 (1pt) – Carlisle 3.15
I haven't got the stats to go with my statement, but I think a lot of top weights in Class 4 and below do very well. They are always off-putting because they are shouldering big weights, but you often get compensated with bigger odds.
Arrange is a very interesting runner for this race. His handicap mark has dropped by 6lbs since the start of this year, and he hasn't been overraced. Given his handicap mark has dropped significantly, you'd think that he has been running well below form. On his last two starts, that statement is true, but before that, from his first two runs of the year, he was very solid. I think you've got to give him a chance based on his runs at Thirsk and Hamilton, and be kind enough to forget about the last two runs, where he probably didn't have ideal conditions.
The runs at Thirsk and Hamilton were both Class 3 races, and given he was only 4 lengths behind the winner on both occasions, he rates highly on my list. He was well-supported for the Hamilton race, going off the 9/4F. When money is down from small yards like Martin Todhunter's, it generally means they are confident in that horse being well-in on the handicap mark. Unfortunately, it didn't work out that day, but I refuse to believe he has completely lost his mojo from May.
He won a Class 3 off a mark of 83 on his penultimate start last year, and was second off 86 on his final start. He seems best over 1m 6f or further, so the return to this distance can only be a positive. To match that, he is a course winner, which is always a bonus.
However, knowing my luck, Alnayef will win as I've been following very closely off a low handicap mark.
Temper Trap 9/4 (2pt) – Hamilton 8.40
I do try and avoid betting in Class 6 races, especially races like this. However, Temper Trap has been a winner for me on multiple occasions over the years, and I think he looks ready to bounce back to form.
David Allan was very vocal on track last time out and said, “If he doesn't win today, he'll be winning soon”. That comment from a jockey means very little, but given this horse has a track record of winning towards the back end of the season, it seems about right.
He is a four-time course winner, and knowing how to win at this level is something which many horses can't do, hence why they are in the position they are in the handicap. I think connections would have wanted slightly softer conditions than what they will get, but he is a versatile horse and should be fine on the ground.
I fully expect David Allan to make the running in this, or if the likes of Paco's Price take him on, to settle just in behind. This is not a strong race, and given Temper Trap's record around this track and that he is on a good handicap mark, I think he'll be too good for them
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