THIS Saturday sees the return of top class turf action in the UK with the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster but there is also a decent jumps card at Newbury so I have some picks at both venues.
The selections for Saturday are as follows:
My selection in this race is AMAYSMONT. This one has been backed in from 12-1 to 9-1 since I initially tipped him on the podcast so that is encouraging in itself. My theory is that he will enjoy the step up to a mile on turf when he has previously only run over 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs on turf. The step up brought improvement on the all-weather and I think the same is likely on turf. He should also be in good shape having been run over the winter on the all-weather.
My thinking with HOOPER in this race is that he will continue to improve for the better ground. Aside from his recent wins, his 2nd place two starts ago actually reads well in the form book with the winner that day (who was getting weight from Hooper) having won twice since. I think Hooper could easily be rated in the 130s and he looks good value for this, albeit the race is quite competitive.
I have picked out two against the field in the Lincoln. My first selection is DANYAH who was widely available at 11-1 on Friday afternoon but has since been backed in to 9-1 and shorter. That's encouraging but if he ends up shorter than8-1 I wouldn't rate him as a value bet any longer. The 4 year old has plenty of potential improvement still to come and has run very well after a break before so I have no concerns in that department. He has also won a big field handicap (last time out in October) which is great experience, he has won at Doncaster before (over 7 furlongs) and he looks a solid each way selection to me with firms offering extra places on each way bets.
My other pick at a bigger price is OUZO does need a career best to win but so do most of them in a race like this. He has twice run well after a break and goes well in big field handicaps. This would appear to be his ideal trip and ground so if he can run to his best I think he will outrun big odds of 25-1.
I am really keen on this one to finish off my afternoon in style. LITTLE RIVER BAY runs for Philip Hobbs with Dickie Johnson in the saddle and that pair always team up to good success at this Newbury meeting in late March. The mare was pulled up last time so is perhaps being missed a little bit in the market but she had a very valid excuse that time (very heavy ground) and this surface will be much more to her liking. She carries top weight for a reason – three good wins prior to the blip last time – and she looks a cracking each way bet to me at a double figure price.
12:00 Redcar - Race: 1
12:25 Perth - Race: 1
12:35 Redcar - Race: 2