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Final Demand put in a clinical performance in the opening race of the Dublin Racing Festival. In my opinion, he looks like one of the Cheltenham Festival bankers if they were to go down the Albert Bartlett route, as that was very impressive on just his second start over hurdles. He wasn't stopping at the finish and I think the extra yardage in the AB would be ideal.
Rizzel's tips
Mitbaahy 7/2 – Lingfield 2.37
Amongst the quality Irish Graded jumps racing we have a good 6f sprint at Lingfield which is a Listed Race named after the fantastic AW sprinter Kachy. With the amount of pace on paper in this race, I thought Mitbaahy was worth a shot, especially with Jamie Spencer getting out of bed to take the ride on this horse.
This race could be won by any of the horses who line up, if it was run five times, it probably would be won by a different horse each time, it's that competitive. However, with Marshman and Diligent Harry likely to go from the front, and even Misty Grey likely to be prominent, it looks like a strong pace is on the cards so I wanted to be on a closer, and the one I've sided with is Mitbaahy.
This horse has always had tonnes of ability, but consistency has always been a problem. This is his first run in 204 days, but also his first run on the AW which makes it an even bigger risk and three of the four rivals are race fit and are all proven on the artificial surface. I'm confident of a big run as Jamie Spencer hasn't been on a racetrack since Dundalk before Christmas, and with him being in the twilight stage of his career he picks and chooses when to ride, so with him returning for this race speaks volumes to me. On all known form, my selection has the best form of last year by winning a Grade 2 at the Curragh, but we haven't seen that version since. Maybe, the long layoff over the autumn and into the winter will have freshened him up, as if he was to return to form, this race is very easily winnable for a horse of his quality.
Magna Sam 9/1 EW (4pl) – Musselburgh 2.25
In terms of a betting perspective, the regional National races probably aren't the best place to place a bet, but I am a sucker for them as I think you can find value and make the most of the enhanced place terms. In these types of races, the market tends to focus on the unexposed horses who aren't always proven at the trip, which is probably the right way to go, but for this race, I thought Magna Sam had been laid out for this for quite a while.
Magna Sam has been lightly raced for the majority of his career, but when he gets it right, he is a very dangerous horse to underestimate when getting his conditions. He won this race off a 6lb higher mark in 2023 but hasn't fired since that race. However, he returned to action in December at Doncaster and put in a performance that left me thinking there is fight in the old lad. He finished 3rd, not too far away from the winner, and with that run under his belt for an in-form yard, today's race looks like a decent opportunity for him to prove he is well-handicapped.
He gets in this race off a lovely racing weight of 10st 2lbs and the ground has started to dry out at the right time for him, which is essential for his chances.
GambleAware
12.40 listed h’cap hurdle
Harry Derham sent Washington across the pond to win a valuable h’cap at Fairyhouse and I’m sure this has been his plan for QG
Should strip fitter for her Newbury run.
We have had a lot of rain overnight though but it’s meant to be a dry day so hopefully it’s not too testing as that wouldn’t be ideal.
Queen’s Gamble 9/2
1.10 Novice Chase Grade 1
Ballyburn just hated Kempton. He must have changed his legs at least a dozen times and never got into a rhythm and it might have left a mark.
Having said that I wasn’t convinced by him in his first start either.
But he’s 2-2 at this track and was very impressive when winning here last year but I think I’ll just watch this and see how it ends up.
My attention will be firmly on Betterdaysahead as I have him at 16/1 for the Brown Advisory but it’s too short for him today.
1.40 Novice Hurdle Grade 1
I mentioned the race won by Kawaboomga last weekend well Kopek De Bordes beat him comfortably on debut even though he jumped like a snooker table.
Willie was a bit surprised by his jumping as he says he jumps well at home.
Hopefully he can put it all together today .
The form of Kaid D’Authie’s win was dented when Koktail Divin was well beaten in that race last weekend.
I backed (KDB) after that race as he was always going to run bar accidents and am on at 2’s.
I’ll also be watching the run of Karafon who will qualify for the festival h’cap after this run. Martin Pipe says hi
2.10 Dublin Chase Grade 1
El Fab has been smashed up in the betting and it looks significant. He was around 8/1 during the week but is now 2/1 and could go off fav now.
I was never in the Gaelic Warrior camp as he just hates Leopardstown and was looking to take him on with something.
I landed on Quilixious. I took 16/1 ew 3 places. At the time that was an antepost bet as I thought I was being clever getting the 3 places. Turns out there are 8 runners anyway.
I know the HDB yard are in dreadful form but they’ve had a few 2nds recently and it has to turn at some stage.
He easily beat Marine Nationale fto and was only beaten 8L by Jonbon in the Tingle Creek so has form in the book at least, but surely the gamble on El Fab will prove significant.
2.45 h’cap chase
Backtonormal won a valuable hurdle at the punchestown festival last year beating Answer to Kayf off levels by 2 1/4 lengths.
ATK is now a 140 rated chaser so to see Backtonormal in here off 130 tells it’s own story.
He’s had 3 runs over inadequate trips over fences and now steps up in trip for his h’cap debut..
Yard would have won the race last year had Percival Legallois not fallen at the last.
3.20 Irish Champion Hurdle Grade 1
Fascinating that PT has chosen State Man. At first the yard had Patrick on Lossiemouth but they saw sense in the end and Danny is now on.
Again not a race to get involved in and the only winner surely is Con Hill sitting back letting his 2 main rivals (if you can call them that) go to war.
3.50 Listed h’cap hurdle
The money has come for McLaurey for the green and gold which is usually significant and with Mark Walsh dropping down to 10st 2lbs then need I say more.
But I’ve had Brave Troop penciled in for this for some time. He’s gone up 30lbs since his first hurdle win but still had plenty in hand lto when winning by 4L.
Charles Byrne’s has won this race more times than any other trainer too so knows what’s required.
I also had Irish Panther shortlisted and was going to back him this morning (waiting for BOG) but he’s shortened from 25/1 and is now 12/1 which is a kick in the groin. I’ll wait and see if he drifts back out.
4.25 Mares Bumper
The form of Amen Kate’s win couldn’t have worked out any better so I’ll chance her. And at 5/1 now is an ew bet to nothing as I’ll be amazed if she’s not in the first 3
BOL
Gone rogue 1.00l 28-1☘️☘️gl all
Morning all
No joy yesterday
Ew lucky 31 today playing for places today
Phil’s Choice 12.40 leop top 5 @ 16s
Cartonne 2.25 Muss top 4 @ 22s
Mars Harper 2.45 Leop top 5 @ 22s
Anna Bunina 3.00 Muss top 4 @ 12s
Shesakindofmagic 4.25 Leop top 3 @ 40s
( Only 22s with betfred
GL with all your bets today
Looked at the Irish meeting, will make good viewing but it seems Mullins is sucking the life out of Irish racing more than ever and using this meeting to give his string a run out .
Race 2 he has the first 3 in the betting.
Race 3 he has an odds on favourite and 6 runners in the race.
Race 6 odds on favourite and 4 of the 5 runners.
Etc etc
Short price favourites and having 3.4,5 or more runners in one race can’t be healthy for competition and narrows down betting opportunities.
At least he gives the rest a chance in a couple of handicaps 😂
Notice bet365 offering a super boost price on lossiemouth 5-6 to 6-4.
Usually a sign that it will lose
Sea god 3-35 musselburgh 12-1 ew extra 5 places.
Runs off just 10-2 plus jockey takes off 7 pounds
Experts say it way out of the weights.
I say it’s a horse on a very light weight and how many times do you see an alleged second string outrun the stable favourite, Linda Russell on this occasion
Anglers crag 2-25 musselburgh.
11-8 top 4 finish bet365 🏇 NAP 🏇
(Best price elsewhere 11-10 BETFAIR sportsbook ***
Won 6 races all right handed, musselburgh is right handed.
1/1 at this course which was at this meeting last year.
Won 4 races around this time last year
Won the 4 mile eider chase at Newcastle so will stay, carries 5 pound more today though hence the place only NAP.
Ran twice this season at under 3 miles which is short for him these days.
Came 4th
Asta la pasta 1.55
There’s the Turners winner
Or maybe Supreme, who knows but he’ll win whatever he runs in
If I was a betting man I’d say
Mundi Supreme (only entry)
KDB Turners
Final Demand AB
and that’s PT’s rides sorted
well done all winners yesterday
garlic warrior 2.10
He’s still running I think mate 😂
Danny Mullins 😂😂😂
Danny Mullins is one of the best jockeys there is, otherwise he wouldn’t be riding for Willie.
I know , I was just laughing at him falling off that’s all , he bumped down 😂
top man tom 3.00 ew
Backtonormal romps home 👍
I did have 3.double and a treble bet on the 1.10 1.40 and 2.45 as you mentioned so cheers for that dc
3 .doubles and 1 treble seem better than them lucky 15 bets
well done all winners today
🇺🇸
4 Fold
6 Fold
Acca….
(* for couple of single bets )
Aqueduct -Race 6….G T Five Hundred 6/4 ****+
Tampa Bay Downs -Race 8…High Beta 5/6
Race 9…Catherine Whhel 2/1
Race 6 Laurel Park.Alias. 4/5.
Gulfstream -Race 8…Special Aviator 2/1 ****
Santa Anita-Race 9…Just Deal 7/4
GL and well done winners today 👍