David Egan got into a battle down the homestraight, and it ultimately cost us a winner.
Mr Hampstead was battling with the Sir Mark Prescott horse for at least three furlongs from home and at times it looked like the horses in behind were cooked, but in hindsight, it just set it up for closers. Only one horse managed to get past, but many were looming, so I can you can mark up the performance from my selection. That means nothing for now as we walk away with a loser, but I wouldn't be giving up on him on the back of that run.
Trustyourinstinct 6/4 (2pt) – Curragh 1.55
The name of my selection for this race is fitting, as that is what I am doing by backing this horse. I am trusting my instinct with Trustyourinstinct, as I think he can shoulder a big weight to defeat a fairly average Listed field.
Obviously, carrying big weights aren't ideal, but I think he has the form in the book from last season to suggest he can win off 9st 12lbs, and as a result of him carrying the penalty, he is decent value, as if he was running off 9st 7lbs, he would be an odds-on shot.
He has some cracking form from better quality races, with runner-up finishes behind Continuous and Jan Breughel which is head and shoulders above anything that today's opposition has shown. This season he has returned in decent form, and was third to Los Angeles last time out over a trip on the short side, so his fitness should be hitting peak form, leaving him with a solid chance of winning this.
Storm Boy 2/1 (1.5pt) – Curragh 3.05
Backing Storm Boy is a total unknown, as I'm not a huge follower of Australian racing, but he is now with Aidan O'Brien so has to be respected. The one thing I do know about Australian racing is that they have much better sprinters than the UK and Ireland, and we've seen that in recent years when they have raided Royal Ascot and thumped our best sprinters, so if Storm Boy was to repeat some of his best form as two-year-old, I think that will be far too strong for today's field.
Storm Boy recorded a best performance equivalent to a rating of 117 according to Racing Post, and that alone makes him the correct favourite, but also a horse who will be very tough to beat. He hasn't been seen since last year, so chances are that he has improved over the winter and improved for the swap to Aidan O'Brien. He hasn't had a run, which is a bit iffy from this yard, as sometimes they needed their first run, but other times we see they are firing on all cylinders. Generally, the way the market moves will be the indicator.
This field isn't a strong one, and I do think Storm Boy will win and will then be very strong in the AntePost market for the Group 1s at Royal Ascot.
Mgheera 11/2 (1pt, Paddypower)- Haydock 3.30
This Group 2 5f sprint is a cracking renewal, and you can give a chance to a fair few of these runners.
American Affair will likely be fancied in the market as he attempts to bridge the gap from handicapping company into Group races, and we know he is in fantastic form. Electric Storm was a selection for me in France a couple of weeks ago and I was sweet on her chances that day, but she was slow out the gates and never featured, but in the same race Mgheera was very impressive on her stable debut for Ed Walker, and I think she can win another race.
I overlooked Mgheera last time out in France, as she had not been seen for a while and she swapped stables, but I was very wrong as she put in a performance that suggested she could be top quality. She loved the fast pace that was set, and set a very good time, so I think the fast ground and likely good pace will set it up perfectly for her.
She managed to produce a career best RPR of 112, and even though I don't think Electric Storm showed up on the day, I still think she would've beaten her on what we know. Electric Storm is not a bad sprinter and the form of her Bath Listed win has been franked by Frost At Dawn, so the Longchamp form reads well in my opinion.
GambleAware