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Saturday marks the return of flat turf racing and boy am I happy to see it!
I’ve never been a huge fan of the jumps and I understand a lot of our thread are more jumps fans than anything else but hopefully you’ll enjoy the flat just as much and fingers crossed we can have a good few months ahead.
Before I preview Saturday's card I would just like to note something which I think is quite important. Although this is the start of the flat it’s worth noting some if not most of these horses are still young and haven’t had a competitive run under their belt since the back end of last year. There will be some that have had runs over at the likes of Meydan etc but a lot have not. That being said it’s hard to judge at the start what’s happening with a lot of these runners.
Some might have came on leaps and bounds some may not progress at all. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see some double figure prices so I advise not throwing the wallet at it in regards to your stakes. There’s some real nice types on show and for me as a tipper it’s a starting point for backing some of these in the future.
GARRUS was available at 5/1 at one stage and if I hadn’t been so busy with other things and got a write up posted sooner some of you could be sitting quite pretty as the money has flooded, but he’s now into 13/8.
That being said I still think there’s value in the 13/8 and I wouldn’t let the short price put you off backing him.
On paper this race is set up perfectly for Garrus. He enjoys sitting off the pace and normally rattles home towards the business end.
Given it’s just a small field of 7 and there being 3 or 4 in this field that will go on and give him that pace angle I can see everything falling into place nicely for him.
He won a group 3 at Deauville last August in some fashion and goes unpenalised for that victory.
Main threat is the obvious Diligent Harry who is a consistent horse who goes well fresh.
If you are looking at it from an official ratings perspective Garrus is the best horse in the race and if showing up should be a tough nut to crack.
CHINDIT is a short priced favourite at 4/6 but it’ll take something special for him to be done over on Saturday in my opinion.
I think the fact there’s only 4 runners going to post tells you everything you need to know about his chances.
Anything can happen in this game, we’ve seen plenty of short priced favourites get done over but I’ll be massively surprised if he’s beaten and at 4/6 he’s maybe worth sticking in a few multiple bets to boost your odds.
When you look at his form figures you don’t see any 1’s beside his name but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He has some attractive form and finished high up the field in some really competitive races including a 5th in the Guineas and a 5th in the Jacques Le Marois where he finished behind the likes of Palace Pier and Poetic Flare.
Myself and Rizz both agreed on the likely winner to be Modern News so there’s no point in myself doing a write up on that one.
I’ve decided to look at an each way angle into this race and decided to go with ROGUE BEAR.
This is another selections who's price was higher and due to posting the night before has cost me. He was 25/1 at one stage and money has come for him, however 14/1 is still a nice each way price and if he places you’ll at least gain some profit.
It’s worth noting that 4 year olds have won the last 5 Lincoln’s and Rogue Bear enters this race at the bottom end of the weights, receiving lots of weight from others in the race giving him a nice advantage.
Rogue Bear goes well fresh as he scored nicely on debut which was at Doncaster as well. He’s won 3 of his previous 5 races and his rating has been on the up ever since.
David Egan is a nice jockey booking and there’s every chance this horse has nice season ahead.
My last selection comes from the evening meeting at Wolverhampton. I tipped BACK FROM DUBAI up when he was on for a 5-timer quite recently but he was given the worst ride by jockey A J Flaherty. He sent him for home about 5 furlongs out which turned out to be a massive disaster as he quickly came back to the field in the straight as he was all out of fuel.
Connections drop him to 6f on Saturday which I thought was interesting as most of his form has come over the mile. He has won over 7f before so the drop to 6f is an interesting decision.
He normally travels nicely into his races and stays well, however I just hope the trip of 6f is not on the sharp side for him. Most of this field have question marks on their head including my own if I’m honest but he’s shown he’s a horse with ability with recently stringing together a handful of wins on the trot. Hopefully he can get back to winning ways tomorrow.