This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
It looked like yesterday was going to be a disastrous day with the first three selections jumping like snooker tables. I didn't have much hope entering the final race of the day for me with The Last Day, but he was given a brilliantly timed ride by Adam Wedge, and he jumped beautifully. To end the day with a 12/1 winner was sweet, and made up for the poor runs from the first three. Erne River did make a mistake which I said I was worried about. Kemboy jumped out to the right at every fence, and Jett spit his dummy out when he couldn't lead, as well as jumping pathetically.
A horse who I managed to find and win with last year when I was having my little hiatus from tipping was TRONADOR, and I'm backing him again to repeat the fete in this. Gordon Elliott's form is turning into something quite embarrassing for the County Meath based trainer, with him winning one race from the last 70 or so runners. That kind of form from Elliott is rather unheard of, which is why backing his horses could be a little dodgy, but the fact his runners at Aintree were running well suggests his team who have been sent over are in better form. Conflated finished second in the Bowl and Zanahiyr was booked for a good place before falling in the latter stages in the Aintree Hurdle.
This horse looks to have been trained to be bit of a target job for Gordon, he won this race last year on the back of a pretty shoddy run, which was more than likely used as a prep. He did it with the same ownership horse, Veneer Of Charm in the Boodles a few years ago at Cheltenham where he won at big odds of 33/1, so I get the impression this has been the plan for a long time. He arrives to Aintree with a run from 22 days ago, so he'll be spot on for this, as he wasn't bashed about at Cheltenham. He won this off 8lbs lower last year, but he did it easier than the winning margin suggests, and the form of that race has worked out remarkably well:
- Dans Le Vent (2nd) – Improved from 131 to 141
- Edwardstone (3rd) – Become the best 2m Novice Chaser in Ireland and Britain, rated 161, recently winning the Arkle
- Mister Coffey (4th) – 141 over fences, 2nd at the Cheltenham Festival in the Kim Muir
- War Lord (7th) – 149 rated Chaser, 2nd in the Grade 1 over fences at Aintree yesterday
- Stolen Silver (8th) – 143 rated Chaser, ran well in Cheltenham handicaps
- Amarillo Sky (11th) – 143 rated Chaser
I think he could drift, due to the form of the yard, but it wouldn't put me off. He has been laid out for this. Make use of the extra places on offer.
I could be losing my mind a little with tipping up FURY ROAD in this, but he was my selection in the Brown Advisory which was eventually won by L'Homme Presse, but he was a non-runner due to the ground being quite testing. The ground will more than likely be soft again, so if they feel like he doesn't handle that ground, they'll more than likely pull him out again, but I think he does handle it, and he is being overlooked massively, and there is a strong chance that the bookies and punters are right, but I think he is worth a shot.
This race has notoriously been won by horses who have not raced in the Brown Advisory, but then ones who did win it coming from that race won fairly weak renewals, which this doesn't look like, despite there only being four runners. Similar to the Gold Cup, both L'Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor had tough races at Cheltenham, and it could come too soon for them to bounce back. If they were both fresh, L'Homme Presse wins this in my opinion, his jumping is brilliant and looks a quality horse. Ahoy Senor doesn't jumped well enough to be a Grade 1 horse, in time he might, but at the moment he doesn't. Bravemansgame has already been pulled out due to testing ground, and the same could happen again in this, but if they don't I don't think he'll appreciate the give in the ground, if more rains arrives. The latter is also a brilliant jumper, but the doubt on the ground is a big danger if you're backing him at prices of 11/8.
Fury Road does handle soft ground, winning on it on a few occasions, and running a belter at the Cheltenham festival in the Albert Bartlett a few years ago to finish 3rd to Monkfish. He dodged Cheltenham, not on purpose, but as a result he comes into this a fresh horse, like BMG. On ratings, he's not out of this, he's only 4lb inferior to the favourites, so needs to be respected. His current odds suggest he has no chance, but they are simply too big for me, we've seen surprises in the past (not specifically in this race), and I'm hoping this could be another.
This race is fairly shoddy in my opinion, with many chasers in this running off inflated ratings, and I don't think they are that good. The likes of Allmankind, Hitman and Captain Guiness who are rated 163, 162 and 159 aren't that good, maybe Grade 2 types at their current best. If a gun was put to my head on who would win this, I'd say Fakir D'oudairies, he's the class horse in the race and probably should win this, but at odds of 11/8 I think I could let him win at those prices and not be too fussed. The horse I like, and a horse who I was about to tip up in the Ryanair, but was pulled out (quite strangely pulled out) is SAINT CALVADOS.
When Paul Nicholls made the decision to pull this lad out of that race with concerns of the ground, I was gutted and gobsmacked, and I think his best form has come on soft ground! In hindsight, he would've needed rockets up his backside if he wanted to beat Allaho that day, as he was on another planet. They've decided to come to Aintree, and I'm glad they are giving it a go, as this is a race where he could outrun his odds. Like I said, the soft ground which should arrive is something which he'll handle, no problem. He's won on soft and heavy ground multiple times before, and gave Min a hell of a fright in the Ryanair back in 2020 where he was hampered by the winner, and he was only beaten by a neck, which was also on soft ground. He looked the winner turning for home in the King George over 3m at Kempton on Boxing Day, but his stamina gave way and he finished a respectable 3rd. He comes into this a fresh horse, which is a big positive as he runs well on the back of a short absence. In a race where plenty of them are flattered to be as highly rated as they currently are, he is a great EW bet in my opinion. Paul has targeted this meeting massively this year, and he'll have his horses primed for it as he wants to secure another Trainers' Championship.
A forecast or even a reverse forecast might tempt me with the favourite as well.
We've seen it throughout this year of how good of a trainer Christian Williams is, he is quality and when given the ammunition he will deliver. He is one of/if not the best trainer for targeting horses at races, as we've seen in the past few months with the Coral Trophy win at Kempton with Cap Du Nord (also had the 2nd) and Win My Wings winning the Eider at Newcastle and then the Scottish National, where he also had the runner-up. He's getting the title of best trainer of staying handicap chasers, which doesn't quite sit right with me, as he is more than capable of doing it with a shorter distance race as well, and I think this could be one. I can't be butchered by his second string in this, like I did in the Scottish National, as he doesn't have any other runners. FIVE STAR GETAWAY catches my eye in this race.
When a horse has never ran over the National fences, you're always taking a gamble, but there are reasons to believe this has been a target for quite a while. At the start of the jumps season he was entered in the Topham, but was a NR. that suggests he has schooled well over similar fences to the National fences at home. He has won a race since, and was heavily backed in for the Coral Trophy, going off joint favourite. There were murmurs of him being extremely well fancied, and he ran well up until a point, where his stamina might've caved in a better race than what he been in. This drop in trip could suit him much better, and he's not been seen since, which is a positive in my opinion.
He gets in this off bottom weight, off what appears to be a winnable mark and he shouldn't have any problems with the ground. This race is a bit of a lottery, and you need to have luck with your horse avoiding trouble. Horses who race prominently in this tend to do well, so I'm hoping for some positive tactics by Nick Schofield. I think he could a dark horse in this.
Banbridge who was the winner of the last race of the Cheltenham Festival and a winning tip for us on the thread heads the market in this, and based on his run at Cheltenham you'd say this trip is right up his street. The prices on offer are no where near as good as they were at Cheltenham as he is currently priced up at around 5/2. He could win this and win it well, but this seems quite an open affair, and the Cheltenham run under his belt is off-putting as he did have to work hard for his win, so I'm having a small bet on the biggest outsider of the field in HAUTE ESTIME.
I wouldn't be going crazy on the stakes on this mare, as she does have to find quite a bit if she wants to get competitive in this, but at 66/1 I'll take a chance on the Lucinda Russell trained 5yo mare. Lucinda sprung a huge surprise in this race last year when her star horse Ahoy Senor won at odds of 66/1. I'm not claiming this horse is anywhere near as good as Ahoy Senor, but it's interesting they've gone for this race, and I can't blame her as it does an open race. She tackles 3m for the first time, like Ahoy Senor did in this race last year, and based on her pedigree you'd have to say it could bring out a fair bit of improvement. She won a Class 1 Listed Mares' race at Haydock over 2m 3f, beating Nina The Terrier, who probably should have won, Gavin Sheehan got some pelters on twitter that day, and rightly so. Despite the fact she was lucky to win, she hit the line strongly and gave the impression a longer trip is worth trying. I think you can put a line through her latest run at Sandown as the tactics they employed didn't suit, and she was far too keen to do herself justice. Back on a flatter track I think she could potentially outrun her odds and maybe run into a place. Like I said at the start, don't go overboard on stakes on this one as she is the rank outsider of the field, and based on figures alone she should be finishing more towards the back than the front, but she is unexposed at this trip and could surprise a few.
Another race where I won't be having a big stake, but I think the booking of Jack Tudor is eye-catching in the Conditional and Amateurs jockeys' race in the last race of the day. It's strange to see Mick Easterby having a runner at a big jumps festival like this, but the jockey booking give the impression they might fancy their chances of a big run on ALBERT'S BACK. This lightly raced 8yo is much more comfortable over hurdles than the larger obstacles, and his strike rate is rather impressive. He has racked up four wins and two seconds from 10 runs over hurdles, and is definitely on a winnable mark of 129. Flat tracks and soft ground are what he is all about, which is why I think he could run a big race. He has won at Wetherby and Haydock in the past, which suggests this track will suit him well. At the current prices I think he is being overlooked as punters look for the younger progressive looking type.
I've tipped up quite a few big priced horses today, so please be careful with your stakes and don't go silly. I shouldn't have to reiterate that, but it's to make sure people stick to their staking plans and don't lose their betting bank.