Racing tips: Tolstoy’s pedigree and running style suggests he’s been crying out for 7f

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Live In The Moment is becoming a frustrating horse to follow. I didn't think the ride was particularly great on him, having to switch him around, but that happens with these young apprentices taking the ride. I wouldn't like to keep backing Live In The Moment as he looks expensive to follow, I have no doubt he'll win soon but the odds will always be quite low due to him running decent races in defeat.

Beverley 4:15 – Casilli 12/1 (1pt EW)

Casilli is on the drift as we speak, but I've had plenty of winners this month who have drifted out so it doesn't really bother me, and it doesn't surprise me she is drifting out as you have the more unexposed horses who are attracting market support, which inevitably will push the outsiders out in price.

I don't think the ones towards the head of the market are the ones to be on, if anything the ones who I thought had a decent chance was the bigger-priced horse in Freak Out and Shine On Brendan. But, out of the three I've named I thought Casilli looked the best selection. Seeing form figures of 057 for this season doesn't look great on paper but the recent seventh-placed effort was much better than it would appear. She ran in a Class 3 (0-90) in the Sky Bet Sunday Series for fillies, which was won by Reach who won by 2L and in good fashion, the following six were separated by 2.5L and Casilli wasn't fancied in that race, going off at odds of 16/1 but made good ground late in the race, running down the outside from the rear like she normally does at Beverley. She was outclassed that day, but to say she ran a poor race would be very harsh, and now she is in calmer waters, she is dangerous to underestimate.

She is a five-time course winner, and we've seen along the years how niche of a track Beverley is. It's a stiff track and catches you out if you don't have the stamina, having a solid course form in your CV is a big tick in my book and I think now she is running back off her last winning mark of 78 she looks a cracking EW bet. I expect Billy Garrity to hang her out in last place and run down the outside, avoid the trouble and hope they go quick on the front end which will help the closers.

I just want to comment on Bobby's Blessing. I think this horse is very well-handicapped off a mark of 76, I tipped him up on debut when he put in a crazy performance from coming last to first. He has a good pedigree, but for as far as I can look not one horse has run or done well over today's trip. He is built for 7f and maybe a mile at a push, which seems a strange decision to whack him up to 10f on handicap debut. If he stays, he's a huge player, but I'd have massive fears that he'd stay, even though his running style suggests he will like a longer trip.

Brighton 4:00 – Tolstoy 13/2 (1pt EW WilliamHill)

Similar comments can be applied to this race as the above race in that there is an unexposed horse who heads the market, but this time I can see why, but he is a bit short for my liking and I think Tolstoy is very interesting now running over 7f for the first time.

For the life of me, I don't know why this horse hasn't been running over 7f, his pedigree would suggest he'd love it, being by Kingman and out of a Frankel mare, it stinks of middle-distance trips but both Stuart Williams and John Gosden (previous trainer) haven't quite seen how have I have. Not only does his pedigree suggest 7f should suit, but his running style and the way he finishes out his races look like a horse who has been crying out for a longer trip. They ran him over 5f at Sandown last time out where he was rushed off his feet and couldn't really go the early gallop but when his stamina came into play he was picking off horses very quickly and though he didn't win, he ran a big race to finish third, considering that type of trip shouldn't be what he wants.

He is very well-handicapped off last year's form, he was rated 94 on his last start for the Gosden's when he won a Class 2 handicap, recording an RPR of 103 in the process, and even that day he did his best running late in the race after looking a bit outpaced, so 7f is definitely worth a try. I've hyped him up for this distance, so sod's law he'll run a stinker and I'll have egg on my face but I think 13/2 is more than fair and he's an EW player in this.

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