Racing tips: The king of Aintree Fakir D’oudairies can land his third Marsh Chase

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To not walk away with a winner with Ahoy Senor was tough to take for Day 1 as I thought he was home and hosed when Brian Hughes kicked before the final fence.

Some people think he kicked on too soon, but I'm not sure. I feel like it would be pocket talk to question the ride, but overall, his jumping wasn't great so the fact he did what he did was still impressive.

Stage Star was very poor, not sure what went on there as even if you do question his form, that was too bad to be true. The Last Day looked to have a big chance when turning for home in his race, but he struggled to pick up, but then stayed on again towards the end, maybe if the ground was slower he'd have been a bigger player.

Today's racing looks very tough, so I wouldn't want to get too involved as it seems far too competitive in every race.

Aintree 2:55 – Found A Fifty 7/2 (1pt)

This is a tough novice race to call, as you don't really have a stand-out piece of form where you can nail your thoughts and think that is the best form in the race. I do think Found A Fifty is a nice horse and though he was beat at Naas by a horse who is versatile over trips, he was still beaten by a very nice horse for the future and one who was probably going to challenge for the win in the Albert Bartlett if he didn't send Mark Walsh through the side door when jumping the last.

This horse was only a head by Corbetts Cross last time out in a Grade 2, and that was deemed to be worthy of an RPR of 149 and I can see why. He made the winner pull out all the stops to get the victory that day, and was probably outstayed in the final furlong or so, which is no shame as the winner is a very talented horse over 3m as well.

Gordon has kept him fresh for this meeting in particular, whereas some of his rivals will be coming into this from a Cheltenham run, so his prep has clearly been better and I think they've wanted to get good ground for him, which he should get. Aintree was deemed to be good to soft on Day 1, but it looked quick to my eyes and it will have dried out even further, so they should be happy with the ground. I think he'll enjoy the track as it is a long run in, and though he was outstayed last time, he does stay well, previously winning a 3m PTP so his stamina can be an advantage.

Aintree 3:30 – Fakir D'oudairies 15/8 (1pt)

Although Fakir D'oudairies hasn't been running to the level many of us have come to expect from him, he is the two-time defending champion of this race, so this will have been the target from the start of the season, and they would've worked backwards from this, so he'll be primed and ready to go in this.

He is now an 8yo, although that's not old, he has had a long career, so it might take him many runs for him to get into peak fitness, and I think Aintree is the racecourse which suits him the best. He has romped home in the two previous renewals of this, winning by 11L and 5.5L, he looked in a bit of trouble when jumping two from home last year but when he hit top gear he motored clear of Hitman, and I can see a similar situation happen in this race today.

I'm sure many will be keen to take him on as they might think he is starting to decline, but I think this is his race and he will be tough to beat if showing anywhere near the level of form he's put in across the two years.

Aintree 4:05 – Numitor 20/1 (0.5pt ew 6pl)

Having experience over the National fences is always a bonus for races like this, so going for a horse without the experience is always a risk, however, if a horse was ever made to jump a national fence it is Numitor.

This horse is a brilliant jumper of a normal fence, and though he is exactly well-handicapped off a mark of 135, I think the fences could bring out some improvement and he is definitely a better chance than the odds of 20/1 would suggest, in my opinion anyway.

He has won off a mark of 131 in the past, which saw him win by 20L and then he finished 2nd off a mark of 140 the time after, so he can definitely mix it off his current mark. He has run well on his two starts this year after the wind surgery and the recent 2nd in a decent pot at Newbury in a Class 2 behind Heltenham reads well in my opinion. That horse is improving at a rapid rate, and he didn't run a bad race to finish as close as he did, as the winner was still clearly well handicapped and will be dangerous wherever he turns up next. He was well clear of the rest in that race, which is normally a good indicator it was a good effort. He seems to be good on any ground, and I'm hoping they send him out in front like he has tended to do and what he's good at and get him into a nice rhythm hopefully he'll be tough to catch, grabbing a place at the very least.

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