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A busy day of selections for Wednesday, which is something I've been avoiding in recent weeks. However, I feel like there is a lot of overpriced horses, who could run some big races.
I wouldn't be as confident in this selection as I probably would be in the others, as this is a 2yo race, and they don't always go to plan. However, I do think that WARHOL will go close in the opener at Salisbury, today.
Paul & Oliver Cole haven't sent many 2yo's out this season, but when they have, they've done well with them, getting 3 wins from 13 runs, with one being placed. I thought Warhol ran a great race on debut, as he was green throughout the race, and was green when staying on strongly, which is what I found mightily impressive. Newbury novices are generally full of nice horses for the future, so the fact he acquitted himself that well, was a good pointer to what level of horse he can become. The form of that race hasn't worked out too bad either. The winner has gone on to finish 3rd at Royal Ascot behind the most well-backed 2yo of the meeting in, Point Lonsdale, who must be a rocket for O'Brien, as he was backed like defeat was out of the question.
The slow ground will obviously be a concern, but his Sire handled cut in the ground, and the Dam also won on heavy, which gives signs that if the ground does remain on the slow side, he'll handle it. The extra half furlong on a stiff track like Salisbury looks to suit, as he was staying on strongly over the extended 6f at Newbury, and both his parents stayed further than today's trip, which is where he'll end up in due course.
Obviously, this is a 2yo race and they can spring the occasional surprise with a big outsider winning or an unraced horse winning, so tread carefully if you're following, or this kind of race isn't your thing.
Another horse who you wouldn't have much trust in, but is definitely capable on his day is, HISTORY WRITER, trained by David Menuisier.
This lad has a strange profile. One race he looks like he's running back to form, and then the next race he runs a stinker, so it's hard to get a gauge of him. However, I'm willing to take a risk on him today, as hopefully a return to a stiff uphill track like Salisbury will play to his strengths. His best runs on British soil have come at Sandown, which is also an uphill finishing track, hence why I believe Salisbury could help him return to form.
Slow ground seems to be the key to this horse, which is why I'm hoping the ground doesn't dry out too much. They aren't expecting further rain, but at the time of racing I think it'll be good-to-soft, soft in places, maybe. He was disappointing last time at Sandown, where he did go off at 5/2F, and he stopped quickly, so there must've been a problem. The time before that, he ran a great race at Ascot over 7f, where he was running on strongly in dying stages, and finished 8th of out 27. That run at Ascot was a much better result than it looks on paper, as he has never won over 7f, and all of his best runs have come over further.
Off a mark of 91, he is starting to look very well handicapped, and it's sucked me in. This lad is much better than this mark on a going day, so I hope they've sorted out whatever problem he had for the Sandown run, as he has the capabilities of taking the Mickey in a race of this nature. He will be held up, so hopefully they go a good gallop and he can pick up the pieces late on.
Advised: Each Way
For the life of me, I can't seem to understand why ALPINE STROLL is the price he is. At the time of writing, he is around 14/1, which seems far too big.
This is clearly a competitive race, but I think they are completely disregarding Alpine Stroll, which is probably due to the the Jockey/Trainer combination of Elisha Whittington and Ed de Giles. If this horse was trained by John Gosden or Godolpin, he'd be half the odds.
I think that running off bottom weight of 8st, when you take Elisha's 5lb claim into consideration, could result in him running a huge race. He ran off 8st last time, when finishing 6th/7 at Doncaster. That was a good run, and though you might question, ‘how is finishing second last a good run?', it's because the race seemed strong, and full of horses who were on very good handicap marks, and he finished 2 lengths behind the winner, so it wasn't as if he was miles away. The Racing Post rated his run 87, so the fact his handicap mark hasn't changed for it, suggests that he could be well handicapped.
The time before the Doncaster race, he finished a strong finishing 2nd behind Surrey Gold, who was clearly a well handicapped horse, who was put up 12lb for his success. The form of that race has worked out quite well, with the fourth horse winning again, and then finishing runner-up. The 5th, 7th (finished 2nd to Surefire, who won at Royal Ascot), 8th and 9th have all placed since.
This race is clearly full of nice horses from all the big stables, but at the prices I think he could definitely outrun his odds. The pace looks to be a strong one, which could suit this horse who was staying on strongly again after being headed over 14f at Doncaster last time.
A horse who I put in my tracker on debut was TUDOR, when he caught my eye when running on strongly at Hamilton.
Hamilton is notoriously known for having some good juveniles racing there early in the season, and it wouldn't surprise me if the race in which Tudor contested will have a decent horse, which could be Smullen, as Kevin Ryan likes to run nice 2yo's at Hamilton. With that being said, Tudor was slowly into his stride, and didn't get the grips of things until the final furlong or so, where he ran on very strongly and looked like a winner in waiting. With that experience under his belt I think he could go very close at Carlisle, in a race which doesn't seem extremely strong.
The faster they go in this race, the better it will be for Tudor, in my opinion. He is bred to stay a lot further than 6f, so his stamina will come into play if they go too quick up front.
I've been waiting for SENSE OF STYLE to run over further than a mile since she was eye-catching in the 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown, when staying on strongly into 3rd. From that run, I've had my eyes on her running in the Irish Oaks, but it seems like they've avoided that route, and they've pitched her in at a lower level of Listed class.
On paper, she's not the flashiest type who will draw attention and get many punters backing her, which is probably why she is the price she is, and I think she is overpriced at 8/1 at the time of writing. There are horses from Ballydoyle and other stables who will be well backed as they are lightly raced and looked to be progressive, however, it can be as easy as backing the best form on offer, which is from Sense Of Style. She was 3rd in the 1000 Guineas trial, and then finished 6th in another trial, behind Joan Of Arc, who recently won the French Oaks. She then went to the Irish 1000 Guineas, where she was staying on strongly into 8th, 4 lengths behind the winner.
The draw hasn't been kind to her, but she is often hell up, so it shouldn't be too much of an issue. However, due to her hold up nature, she will probably need a bit of luck in running, which can often be quite hard in races like this in Ireland.
Advised: Each Way (4 places Bet365/Paddy)