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Queen's Guard was a late NR at Ayr, due to the weather I'd imagine. That left us with Aussie Girl as the only runner of the day and she ran better than I thought she would during the race as she was under the pump a long way from home, she battled hard and did finish fourth which meant she was placed with Bet365 as they were offering an extra place.
Ayr 1:50 – Royal Rhyme 6/4 (1pt Bet365)
6/4 or 13/8 isn't a great price about Royal Rhyme but I can see why he is the price he is based on his emphatic win in a Goodwood Class 2 race last time out. He might be short, but I think he has a superb chance of landing a Class 1 race today.
Soft ground is clearly essential to Royal Rhyme as when he runs on it he tends to win or run well, when it's too quick for him he simply has no chance. Ayr is currently good to soft, soft in places and I think though he would like it be to slightly softer, I think it's enough for him to show his class in this. The way he travels on slow ground is impressive, it's almost as if he is running on good to firm ground with the way he handles it. This is a step up in grade for him, but he's clearly a very progressive horse and with the form of the yard I don't think you can doubt that he'll handle this class jump.
Newbury 1:30 – Nymphadora 7/2 (1pt Bet365)
If Sense Of Duty is on point after her 455 day layoff and she handles the ground I think she'll be tough to beat, but based on those questions I think Nymphadora is a great option against her.
Soft ground is what this filly wants and needs, she is much better with juice in the ground than on faster ground as her record over her career would suggest, as well as this season. She won at Chester on soft ground, then went to York and won on good to soft. I put her up at big odds in the Group 2 sprint at Glorious Goodwood a month ago and she was outclassed, but she didn't run terribly, finishing middle of the pack and 4.5L off the winner. This is a much calmer race and she will arrive night and ready for it from the month layoff between her last race.
Raasel is in good form, so he is very respected, but he has been kept very busy recently and that would be a concern running on a testing surface at Newbury.
Ayr - 1:50 pm
6/4 @ Bet365
Newbury - 1:30 pm