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It was unfortunate to see my selection in the 1000 Guineas being a NR, as I thought she had a huge chance, and she had close form with the winner and 2nd, so it would've been interesting. It's bank holiday Monday and for once there isn't a stupid amount of racing on. There's a couple of decent cards, but only four horses caught my eye.
I tipped up TWILIGHT SPINNER when she made her seasonal reappearance around a month ago. It looked evident that she needed that run, but also a step up in trip could be something they might want to explore at some point as she was staying on strongly. They've gone for a 7f race, and even though she'll have to prove that she is as effective at this trip, I think this could bring out further improvement.
This race has a terrible record for the older horses, with 3yo's winning eight of the last ten renewals. That stat alone doesn't give confidence for my selection but I don't think the 3yo's in this race are all that impressive. Even though they can improve plenty as they still lightly raced horses, I think they will have to improve a fair amount to win this, despite the weight allowance they will be in receipt of.
Whatever the ground is, it won't matter at this filly seems versatile and will go on any ground, she's well fancied in this, which is slightly annoying as I was expecting larger odds, but I am a fan of her and she can win this before moving onto bigger and better things.
A 30 runners sprint handicap, which is very competitive but a horse who could run well at a decent price is GRIGADALE.
This horse carries 10st, but that will be 9st 7lbs with Jack Coen claiming 7lbs. Jack is a good apprentice and is well worth his 7lb, and when you consider he's running off a mark of 66 I think he is well handicapped.
He is a lightly raced 4yo with only 6 runs under his belt, but after his juvenile season he has started to look like a horse with potential. He was only seen once in his 3yo season, which saw him finish 2nd at this C&D off a 246 day break. His only run so far this season saw him finish 3rd, and both runs have produced RPRs in the low 80s, which is good number considering he is 73 rated, but is running off 66 with the claim taken into consideration. He was entitled to come on for that recent run at Dundalk, so I'm expecting a big run. It's a big runner field, which can be problematic to get a run, but the fact he's finished runner-up in a 22 runner race before suggests he is fine by this scenario.
Stan Moore isn't really a household name in the world of flat racing, but in the last couple of seasons I feel like his form has started to get better and his winning numbers have been increasing. This season has started off well, with him currently operating at a 13% SR with 8 wins so far. In the last fortnight he has had 2 wins from 7 runners, so his stable remains in good form and I'm expecting a big run for the course regular, UTHER PENDRAGON.
This horse ran a nice race over C&D eight days ago, which saw him finish a head second. His handicap mark has remained untouched from that, which leaves him with a very nice chance in this race off bottom weight of 8st 5lbs. This race is a tough race, with it being a Class 5 where the previous race was a Class 6, but I can't ignore his good recent form and his love for this course. two of his rivals in this race are coming off lengthy absences, and the other two who aren't, are seemingly out of form so I think he can win this.
The price around EXCEL POWER is a little skimpy but if he puts in a similar performance to the one he did last time out at Haydock where he won, he could be very hard to beat.
Archie Watson's 4yo gelding has always been known for his pace, and his speed out of the gate. Since Archie became a trainer his style of 2yo's were like Excel Power, break from the gates as quick as possible and lead from start to finish. This horse has kept that tactics since his juvenile days, and that kind of tactic is lethal around Windsor. If you can get a good start and grab the rail, it can be very difficult to be passed at this track, and that why I think the 4lb rise in the weights isn't enough to stop another win and him landing the hat-trick.
The race he won lto will turn into a decent bit of form as the next couple of weeks and months progresses, as he beat some nice types in that race. This race isn't weak by any means, but he's the form horse and should have the run of the race.
I was really tempted to back ARYAAH last night and put him up as a tip, but there was a very strong gamble happening with Hold The Press who was backed in from like 8/1 to 15/8 fav for his handicap debut. I thought that significant and I didn't fancy going against it, but that horse has become a NR this morning which leaves me confident with my pick again, so I'm putting this up on the morning of racing.
George Boughey enjoyed a fantastic weekend landing the 1000 Guineas, but he's had a good start to the flat season in general with his yard being in great form. He's been operating at a 20% SR in the last 14 days, which included 6 wins. This horse has been in good form recently and I believe the extra 2f which he tackles today will bring out further improvement. I thought he was unlucky at Windsor the time before last where he travelled nicely but couldn't find the gaps, and when he did the bird had already flown and it was race over. The time after he didn't travel as well, but stayed on in the manner of a horse who would appreciate slightly further. This horse is related to George Boughey's 2021 Pretty Polly winner, Mystery Angel who thrived over 1m 2f, so there's no reason to suggest this isn't the right move for Aryaah. I don't think this is a great race, and once again even though the odds are short enough I do make him the one to beat.
12:29 Fontwell - Race: 1
12:46 Uttoxeter - Race: 1
12:55 Punchestown - Race: 1