Racing tips: Phantom Flight will be eyeing up Group targets after success at Ayr

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Gale Force Maya did what I expected her to do yesterday, and that was to win like she was the best horse in the race. The only way she was getting beat yesterday was if she wasn't fit or fully recovered from her previous race, but as I mentioned, I don't think she would've raced if that was the case.

Newbury 1:40

This race was formerly known as an Arc Trial, but in recent years that title has been removed, and probably for the best as it's not an ideal race prep for it these days. However, it still remains to be a good race to win and today's renewal is a great renewal, full of horses who could win this and it looks competitive.

The Godolphin trainers have combined and chucked a few darts at winning this, and you'd have to say they hold the best chances of a win. Saeed Bin Suroor sends one in the shape of Dubai Future, who will be carrying the first colours of the owner but I think his win the time before last time out at Ascot makes him look better than what he actually might be. He won that in great style, but that came as a shock as he won at odds of 20/1. Last time out he ran an okay race to finish 3rd/5 at York in a Group 2, but on the back of that Listed win, you have expected more. Personally, I think this race is between Charlie Appleby's runners in Siskany and KEMARI. I've decided to go with the latter.

I can understand why people will think that Siskany is the one to be on if you're going for an Appleby runner as Adam Kirby takes the ride, who is used as a frequent rider for the yard when the main two guys (Buick & Doyle) aren't available, but I am concerned about the time off the track for that horse. The form of Kemari has been well documented with Rebel's Romance going on to win Group 1 honours in Germany on his most recent start. He has beat Kemari the last two times they've raced against each other, with the last time being much closer as Kemari got an uncontested lead at Goodwood, but couldn't go on with the winner in the final furlong. This is a furlong shorter, so should suit him and even though I doubt they'll get an easy lead like last time, I think the fact he'll sit close to the pace will be an advantage.

The odds at the time of writing at all over the place, you can get between 4/1 and 6/1 depending on who you bet with. I'd advise going EW with him, unless the odds aren't worthy of that, but I can see him drifting out slightly if the money for Siskany is strong, which looks to be the case.

Newbury 2:15

I am going to be giving MITBAAHY one last chance at this level unless David Egan gets off him as I think he is extremely overrated and has given this horse a number of rubbish rides. Despite the fact Egan is on board, I think he is worth another try as he hasn't had the breaks of showing what his real ability is in the last couple of attempts.

He won nicely at Hamilton and Sandown over the minimum trip, suggesting a stiff 5f is what his ideal conditions are, which might be the case, but I think a race run at a real tempo is what this horse wants. Something that allows him to track a horse into the race and use his good cruising speed and then hit stamina kicks in in the final furlong.

For this race, I am praying that he gets a clear run, that way I know whether my instinct is wrong or right about him being better than what we've seen. Based on his runner-up finish at Sandown in a Group 3 behind Raasel I think there is definitely more to come from this horse. I think due to his under-par run last time out (given a strange ride) people are forgetting about him and are opting for the horses who are deemed to be in ‘better form'. I think he offers good EW value.

Ayr 1:55

A horse who is priced up on the short side is PHANTOM FLIGHT, but there are reasons why he is the hot favourite for this race. He has some classy form when you consider he was behind New London at Newmarket in July, where that race didn't exactly go to plan with him being blocked off on a couple of occasions. New London went on to finish second in the St Leger last week, so that goes to show the level of form.

Since then, Phantom Flight went to York in a Class 2 handicap where he obliterated that field and made a mockery of his handicap mark of 98, winning by 5L and producing an RPR of 115. He showed that he was a group horse in waiting, and no one had a chance that day last time out as he was so well handicapped.

Today's race is a different kettle of fish as he moves into Class 1 company for the first time, so his 10lb rise in the weights doesn't mean anything as they'll be on equal weights, other than the age allowances. So now we'll find out how good he really is. I don't think this race is that great, so if he is the level of horse which I think he is, he should be dealing with the older horses who are exposed and have shown what they're capable of. I can see Phantom Flight having to work hard to get into top gear, but once he hits that, he will pull away and win by a couple of lengths.

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