Racing tips: Paddy Twomey’s improving filly can lands the spoils in the opener on Irish Champions Weekend

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State Of Bliss didn't get the ride I was hoping for, as the lead was still there for the taking in my opinion. Either way, I don't think it would've made a difference as he was convincingly beaten. Today I've gone for a couple of selection in Ireland on the first day of their Champions Weekend.

Leopardstown 12:40

Lullaby will more than likely go off favourite for this race, due to being trained by Aidan O'Brien. I think she will be a talented filly, but based on the one run to date, I think I'd rather swerve her, as more than likely she will be far too short. One interesting thing about her is the fact that Aidan chucked her straight into the deep end; she made her debut in a Group 3, where she finished 4th. As for the rest of the field, I think it will be between Corvigilia & LIMITI DI GRECCIO.

I have decided to side with the Paddy Twomey trained filly, as I think she was positioned poorly when she was 2nd behind Corviglia when the pair met at Leopardstown in July. Corviglia made the running that day, and this track does often suit a front runner, as it can be difficult to come wide around the bend and make up the ground on the horses who race prominently. That was the case for Limiti De Greccio. She didn't exactly race wide, but she was towards the rear/midfield, and when she hit top gear in the straight she made up a lot of eye-catching ground on the winner. There is a strong possibility the same will happen again, but this time I'm hoping Billy Lee can make use of her quick start. When the pair met in July, the selection broke well, but was then restrained. Hopefully this time, she breaks well and Billy settles her behind the leaders. She has a wide stall and although that can be a negative, if she breaks well she should be able to stay wide and find a nice position.

It is interesting that Paddy Twomey bought this filly, as in a recent article from the Racing Post, he said he prefers to train Fillies than Colts or Geldings, and a noticeable quote was “I like to train quality over quantity”. Though it's hard to say what level this filly will peak at, I think she is a Class 1 filly, and now being trained by Twomey she could improve again. Paddy has the best SR for runners in the entire country of Ireland, currently operating at 29%. He is also 3/8 with 2yo's at this track.

There is forecast rain at Leopardstown, so there is a chance of getting at least Good-to-Yielding ground, and that appears to be not ideal for Corviglia who has been withdrawn on soft ground before.

Leopardstown 2:10

I am surprised to see FEV ROVER being backed in at the start of the market opening, and when I thought she looked good for this race, I was thinking she would be double figure odds, but that's not the case. She opened up at around 12s and has been nibbled into 9s, whether that'll drift out or not, I'm not sure. However, I will still be playing despite the fact I was hoping for bigger odds.

Her last two starts have been quite disappointing as a whole, as I think a lot of people were expecting a big season from the horse, who looked talented as a juvenile. She was a Group 2 winner at a 2yo, but things haven't really gone to plan this year. She started the season off really well, with a promising 3rd placed finish in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, behind Mother Earth. Since then she was poor at the Curragh, and the same again at Ascot. My theory behind those two poor runs was the bottomless ground. That might sound ridiculous as she won on Very Soft ground at Deauville when she won her Group 2. The problem is, I think she handles soft ground, but she might prefer faster. Last year she probably got away with soft conditions as it put an emphasis on her stamina over shorter trips, as well as horses not taking to the conditions. Her best run this year was at Newmarket when the ground was rattling fast. Today the ground won't be lightning quick, but it also shouldn't be bottomless, and I think that will help.

Richard Fahey won this race back in 2019 with Space Traveller, who was also rode by Billy Lee, who takes the ride on Fev Rover. Connections must clearly think she is capable at this level, as this is a very competitive Group 2 and there will be easier chances elsewhere, perhaps on foreign soil.

3yo's have a decent record in this race, winning 4 of the last 7 renewals. Also, 5 of the 7 wins have been won by English raiders.

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