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Yesterday's only selection at Brighton was another horse to finish 2nd for us this month. He was keen throughout his race, and that probably is what costed him. He was beaten by a head, and was done right on the line after Hayley tried to make all.
A horse who will probably be a shorter price than I'd like, but must be the one they all have to beat is, FARHH TO SHY.
There is a lot of questions about the other horses in the field, which makes the selection a likeable horse to back as he is by far the safest option. Farhh To Shy is still a lightly raced horse who appears to be progressive. All four of his runs have come at this track, so he clearly appreciates this venue, shown by the fact he has won here twice. The 7f trip is perfectly fine, and he will arguably stay further in time, but for the time being this trip looks ideal. I think that his most recent win was visually impressive. He didn't win by many lengths, but he did it with a minimal amount of fuss, and looked like a horse who would progress and be slightly better than his current mark of 85, which is 5lbs more than his most recent win.
I'd probably say that Equitation is the main danger, as he has fallen to a very attractive mark. The only problem with this horse, like a lot of the others in this race, is whether this trip is what he needs. His best form has come over shorter, and I think that remains his ideal conditions. However, he is an interesting runner for a stable and jockey combination who have done very well this season.
This race is filled with 3yo's, with only 2 of the 9 runners being 4yo or older. Giving away the weight to the 3yo's in this race will not be an easy task, but I think ONE HART offers a fair amount of value against the younger horses.
It has been well publicised that trainer, Grant Tuer, is having a very good season. His strike rate currently sits at 25%, which equals 42 wins from 171 runners, which is some of the best stats around. In comparison, Charlie Appleby is operating at a 29% SR this season, and we all know the level of horses he gets from Godolphin, so for Grant to have these numbers, it's very impressive. Something which has been a big hit for Grant this season is the amount of winners he has had from horses he has obtained from other yards. He has managed to get many wins from horses who have their first start for him, which is some going. I'm hoping that One Hart is another horse to be added to the tally of those horses that have won first time out after being transferred to his stable, and based on his course form you'd have to say there is a strong chance of a good run.
One Hart is definitely a better animal when racing on the All-weather, especially Wolverhampton. All three of his wins on the All-weather have come at this track, which is 3 wins from 5 attempts. His last win at this track came in a Class 4 event off a mark of 79, which was effectively 74 as Oliver Stammers took off 5lbs. That being said, he has finished a short head at this track off a mark of 80, so he does have the potential to get competitive. My slight concern is that he might have to come down in the weights for a couple of pounds, but I'm willing to take an EW bet on the fact he might've found a little bit more for being transferred to Grant's yard, as he is clearly doing something right at the moment. He has been nibbled at in the market, from around 20s (early prices) to around 10/1 – 7/1.
Grant also does well at this track with his older horses, which has seen him get 10 wins from 46 runners, which equals a 22% SR.
12:00 Ayr - Race: 1
12:15 Cork - Race: 1
12:35 Ayr - Race: 2