This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Just the two runners from me for Monday. Hopefully, a couple of big runs from some unexposed types.
In a race full of exposed horses, I think it's best to side with a horse who looks like he's on the up. FRENCH RED has shown big improvements since moving into handicapping company, and he appears to have the potential to win a race of this nature.
A lot of the horses in this race have raced against each other in the past, so you know what you're going to expect, which is why I'm taking a chance on a lightly raced horse who could be better than his current rating of 49.
Ayr is forecast a lot of rain, which won't be favourable for a lot of the horses in this race, as their best form has come on quicker ground. Though French Red hasn't encountered slow ground in his five races to date, he is by Camacho, and a lot of his progeny seem to handle cut in the ground very well. Ginger Goose who is a half brother to French Red, won on soft ground, which is an encouraging sign that from both sides of his pedigree they seem to handle cut in the ground.
Due to the weight for age allowance, it means that he is racing off second bottom weight of 8st 10lbs, which will help if the ground does get on the soft side. Iain Jardine has also reached for the cheekpieces, which should hopefully bring out a little more improvement in an attempt to win his first race.
Nottingham is also expecting rain, not as much as Ayr, but it will probably be enough to change the going to Good To Soft, and that won't be an issue for MUMMY BEAR, who won on that going last time out at Newmarket.
A return to sprinting saw Mummy Bear in a much better light than her performances over slightly further, and 6f must be her best trip as both of her career wins have now come over this trip. She travelled powerfully last time, and when she found the gap, she kept on well to lead in the final strides. Though the winning margin was a head, and it might not appear all that impressive, the fact the other horses got first run on her, and she still managed to win, despite having to wait for the gaps, is impressive. She has been put up 3lbs for that run, and that shouldn't be enough to stop her progression.
Similar to the first race, there are plenty of exposed horses. Mummy Bear is one of two 3yo's in the race, but Munificent, the other 3yo, doesn't look good enough to play a part in this race, whereas Mummy Bear is still relatively unexposed at this trip. A couple of the opposition come into this race with a few recent placed efforts to their name, and Shamarouski brings a recent win to the table, but he's not been seen for 137 days, and all of his best runs have come on the All Weather.
The only potential downfall to this race, is the lack of pace on offer, so it could favour a horse who will get an uncontested lead. Mummy Bear tends to run from the back of the field, so hopefully they will go a good gallop, as otherwise it could be a problem to catch the front runner.