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Two selections from me on what looks to be a wet Tuesday. Good luck if you're following, and hopefully you'll find some winners.
There are a lot of question marks in this race concerning a lot of the horses, even the horse I like, but I think TEEMLUCKY has a lot less to prove than many others in this race.
The main concern for the selection is the ground. At the time of writing the ground is described as Good To Soft, but they are expecting a little more rain before racing commences. Her pedigree gives me mixed feelings on whether the ground will pose any problems. The Dam won on Good To Soft and Soft ground when she raced over hurdles, but, the Sire didn't like any slow ground and a lot of his progeny have gone the same way. Teemlucky has raced on a ‘slow' surface once in her lifetime and she seemed to have handled it okay; she travelled well throughout and tired late, but that was over 14f, which is 2.5f more than what she faces today. However, that race was ‘Good To Soft', whether that ground was more on the good side or soft side I'm not so sure. Despite this, I will be taking the risk on that she'll handle the ground. She is entered in another race on Thursday at Leicester, so if connections feel like the ground has gone against her, they will pull her out and hope for better ground at Leicester.
With the ground discussion now finished, we can speak about her form and chance of winning…
She's one of the form horses in this race, alongside Hooves Like Jagger. She has been placed the last two times, and she was headed late on most recently, which gives the impression she might find this trip more in her favour. Racing Post thought her most recent run was a good performance, and rated it 54 RPR, which was 9lbs higher than what she raced off, so the 2lb rise she got for that close finish could be quite lenient. Rhys Clutterbuck is one of the apprentices a lot of stables are starting to take note of, and use. He is a very useful 5lb claimer, and his claim is very crucial in this race as there are a couple of 3yo's who have a decent chance and will be getting the weight for age allowance. With Rhys' claim she is running off 9st 1lbs and off a mark of 42, which is lower than her recent run where she ran very well.
Ian Williams has enjoyed a good spell at Bath in the last five years. She has had 6 winners from 22 runners, operating at a 27% SR to a +18.50 profit to level stakes.
I'm going to take another chance on MOORLAND QUEEN who I previously tipped up in May, where she was relatively disappointing but looked like she needed to be stepped up in trip, which she now has. Her recent run was terrible, but too bad to be true, so I think you can put a line through that.
Tim Easterby & Duran Fentinman won this race in 2017, and even though its a Class 6 race, it does appear to be a race that Tim likes to have runners in. He's had multiple horses place in this race, including horses at big odds, so the current odds of 16/1 doesn't concern me with Moorland Queen. He's had 28/1, 6/1, 10/1, 3/1, 9/4 all placing and a 33/1 shot finishing 4th, so he does like to use this race for whatever reason.
Moorland Queen has dropped to a mark of 47, and I think she can definitely win a race off that kind of mark, as she has shown she does have a little bit of ability when finishing 4th at this track over a trip which is much too short, in my opinion. She's ran some nice races since then, in races which have thrown up some decent pieces of form. There are a couple of horses who are in good form, and will probably take a lot of beating, but I think Moorland Queen could be overlooked due to her poor run lto. It wouldn't surprise me to see her drift out to a bigger price.
She carries 8st 5lbs in this race, which is very light, it should help against the main market fancies who are carrying at least a stone more.
Advised: Each Way