Racing tips: Miss Olive Nicholls’ 7lb claim is too hard to ignore on Grivetana

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Generous Day didn't quite perform how I was expecting after a nice return to the track last time out. He tailed off very quickly. For Three wasn't given the greatest of rides. At the time I thought the jockey should've done better in attempting to restrain the horse as he was far too keen. In hindsight, that was probably a bit harsh, but I'm not changing my mind on how he let the winner sneak up the inside turning for home and my jockey just sat still and didn't look bothered, either he was confident he had plenty of horse underneath him or it was just pure lack of riding ability.

Hereford 2:35 – Grivetana 3/1 (1pt)

There are a few cards for Wednesday's racing, but nothing really stands out to be a decent bet at good odds other than Grivetana, who continues to drop down in the handicap.

Normally, dropping down the handicap would be enough to put punters off as they are clearly on a downward spiral, but this horse is only a 5yo and hasn't done a tonne of running in her career so she can definitely bounce back and if there was a race for it to be possible, today's race would look like the perfect opportunity.

I tipped her up last time out when she ran at Newbury in a race she had previously placed in, she was running off a 5lb lower mark than last year but she desperately looked in need of the run as she was positioned prominently but when the gas tank was empty she went backwards very quickly, so I'm expecting her fitness to be much better for today's race. This is a drop in class and a huge one based on last year's 2nd to First Street in a Grade 3 handicap at Newbury. Her handicap mark is now 114, which is 7lbs lower than when she finished 2nd in Class 1 company and that is effectively 14lbs lower when you take the 7lb claim that Miss Olive Nicholls brings to the table.

The jockey is an obvious relation to the trainer, but I don't think Paul would be one to let one ride his horses because they're family (could be his daughter, I'm not sure 🤣) as he comes across like a ruthless man who just cares about winning. From what I've seen of the jockey she seems a competent rider and 7lbs off the horse today is a big benefit. When teaming up together, Olive and Paul they have been striking at a 44% SR, which is 7 wins from 16 runners and a further 3 placed efforts, recording a profit of +11.81 to £1 level stakes. She had a winner for Paul just a few days ago and has recently been 3rd with a 125/1 shot, so she seems good value for the 7lbs.

Grivetana now has her second run after the wind-op, and I've mentioned this a few times over the years that you can normally see the benefits of the wind-op on their second run, as it can take a while for them to get used to it.

It's a bit frustrating to see that Charles Byrnes has decided to put one in this race. With him being one of the best gambling trainers around it's a tad worrying seeing him have one in this, and it's a shrewd booking of Finn Lambert in the saddle. However, a mark of 107 with Olive's claim, puts Grivetana on a ridiculously low mark on what she achieved last year, so I think you've got to take the Irish raider on.

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