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A lot of racing happening on Friday, with some quality racing taking place at Epsom. Good luck if you're having a bet in the Oaks.
This will be the first time that MUTAMADED races in a Class 6, which should massively increase his chances of winning.
He's clearly a horse on the decline, but he's on a dangerous mark to underestimate (67). His recent runs have been promising, and I'm prepared to look past his two most recent runs. His best form has come on quick ground, so the soft ground which he encountered at Carlisle can be ignored. The time before at Mussulburgh he was racing after a 7 day break, which was his third run in 21 days, and it clearly caught up with him, so again I think you can put a line through that run too. Before that, he ran well over C&D, finishing behind a progressive horse who had previously won 3x this year, and the front two pulled 2.25 lengths clear of the rest. The race before that at Beverley has produced a decent level of form, with the 2nd and 4th winning since.
Advised: Each Way
MUSIC SOCIETY has ran some nice races in defeat this season, and this race looks much easier than the ones he's been contesting.
On seasonal reappearance he was staying on strongly over a less than ideal trip on a speed track, but it was a good pipe opener and to finish 0.5 lengths behind the winner was a good run. He was then sent off favourite for a race at Thirsk, and though he under performed, the form of that race has worked out well, with the 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th either winning or running well since.
Last time out he finished runner-up, but he was the best finishing horse who raced prominently, which suggests that they were going to quick up front, so the fact that he nearly won from that position shows the form he's currently in. He's been knocking on the door, and off a winnable mark of 79, I don't think he should be overlooked.
Epsom is a very unique track, with only a few tracks in the UK it can be compared to, so backing horses with course form isn't a bad idea. For the second race of the Oaks/Derby meeting I am backing CORAZON ESPINADO, who is a triple course winner.
At the time of writing he is currently priced up at 14/1 with Bet365, and I think they are far too big. He is a front runner, and we've seen on many occasions that this track favours horses who are towards the front, especially if they can get an uncontested lead. This horse normally races of 7f, but he is a winner over a mile at this track. With the straight of the track being the most downhill track in the country, it allows horses like Corazon Espinado to get the extra furlong which they wouldn't normally get at a track like Newmarket, which is a bonus as he should have the speed advantage over a lot of them.
His recent runs are a good indicator that he is in good form, and should be able to make a bold bid in a race of this nature. He finished second to King's Knight, who has since gone very close at Goodwood and ran a stormer at Chester, finishing 4th behind the very well handicapped horse, Boardman. Caspian Queen was back in 3rd that day and she has won since.
Advised: Each Way
BLUE CUP is probably going to be one of the most backed horses of Friday, like he was when he raced lto, but was a beaten fav.
People jumped on the hype train when they saw the horrible passage Blue Cup had when finishing 5th in a Class 2 at this track, behind Victory Chime. Ryan Moore struggled to get the room he needed that day, and ultimately, he finished on the bridle. Since that race, he did run a disappointing race at York, but there are excuses for that run. He was far too keen, which is why the hood goes on today. Hopefully, the return to this speed track should allow him to settle better. When they turn for home and they are free wheeling down the hill, that should hopefully let him settle.
Off a mark of 92 you'd have to say he looks very well handicapped if he's able to get the gaps and if he's able to reproduce the form of his 5th at this track.
In my opinion, the bet of the day comes in the penultimate race at Epsom where MEHMENTO surely is the horse to beat.
Archie Watson's lightly raced 3yo is clear on ratings, and his form he showed when finishing 2nd to Chindit is clearly the best form on offer. Chindit was a well regarded horse last year in his 2yo season, and he has clearly trained on, shown by the fact he has finished 5th in a 2000 Guineas. Mehmento made Chindit fight all the way to the line at Newbury, and he only managed to head him on the line. Archie then sent him to Longchamp for the French 2000 Guineas, which obviously didn't go to plan. The ground was extremely soft, and the race was quite messy, plus I don't think he would stay 1m, so it was not a bad effort to finish 7 lengths behind the winner.
Thankfully, they have dropped him back to 7f, which looks sure to be suit, and if he handles this track then he should be the one they all have to beat. I don't think he'll get to the front like he has done the last couple of times, but if he can sit behind the pace and get a clear run, then that is all I hope for.
The final bet of the day comes at Bath where CRYSTAL CASQUE must have a good chance of getting a win, if he's able to reproduce the level of form he's been showing in recent runs.
The form behind Lights On, where Crystal Casque finished 2.75 lengths behind in second, has worked out well. That horse has since won again at Ascot, and is now 14lb higher than when they met. Poet's Lady who was back in 5th has also won since. I also get the impression that the form of his most recent run at Kempton will work out, as I like the look of the horse who finished second, Bonneval. He runs next week, and the way he ran in that race suggested that he is better than a mark of 78, and on that day at Kempton Crystal Casque ran on strongly, but didn't quite have enough track to run the front two down.
Saffie Osbourne takes the ride, and takes off a handy 5lbs. Saffie is one of the best 5lb claimers in the country, and her allowance means Crystal Casque is effectively running off a mark of 71, which puts him below his last winning mark of 74.
12:45 Newbury - Race: 1
13:15 Newbury - Race: 2