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I am back and feeling refreshed after my little break away to Stratford Upon-Avon with the Mrs, and it was nice to get away from the world of horse racing and recharge the batteries. Hopefully we can land a winner or so for Saturday's racing.
I am going to take a chance on a recent winner for us. JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE just seems a little overpriced in my eyes for the Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes. He has to find a fair amount based on the ratings and the fact they race off level weights, but there are reasons to suggest he could run a big race.
Justanotherbottle was an 18/1 winner for us earlier this month when he won the Great St Wilfrid in tremendous fashion, blitzing them from the front. That was over 6f, and based on his career, you'd have to say that he has been a better horse over shorter, and that's why I'm not worried about the drop back to 5f. Beverley is a track which is notoriously known for being a front runner track, and it can be extremely difficult to win from a wide stall. The selection is drawn in Stall 1, so has the prime stall to make the running yet again. Horses drawn around him either race towards the rear, or can often be slow away, so fingers crossed he'll be able to get the rail after a good start and be hard for catching. Judicial, a previous winner of this race, is drawn in 5, and although he won lto and does race prominently, I'm not sure that this trip is ideal for him these days. Dakota Gold and Hurricane Ivor would be big players in my opinion, but they are drawn in double digit stalls, and the last 10 winners of this race have been drawn in stall 9 or lower, with 7 of the 10 being drawn in 4 or lower.
As I said previously, he will need to run well ahead of his mark, as if this was a handicap he would receive weight from a fair few in this race. However, Kevin Ryan did say before he won the Great St Wilfrid, that he would land a big pot at some stage as he is still a talented horse, so the fact he's now got his head in front, he might have the confidence to go in again. At odds of 11/1 – 12/1 he could be a good EW bet.
Another horse who would need to find a fair bit of improvement to win, but could definitely run better than his ratings suggests is, ROYAL SCIMITAR.
Clive Cox seems to found the key to this horse. He was tried as a 7f and a miler, but both of those options didn't seem to suit, but the drop back 6f definitely seems more up his street. He has ran some very nice races in defeat in recent runs, and although he is rated 97, he could run better than that, especially at Newmarket and on fast ground.
As a 3yo he will get the weight for age allowance, although it's not great at this time of year, it is better than nothing. Even though he is 97 rated, I do think he is better than that, and is definitely a 100 rated horse for the near future. His recent runs would suggest he is a well handicapped horse, as he has been going close, and it seems he needs everything to drop right for him. His most recent run off 9st 12lbs and on a much slower surface than ideal was a cracking run, which has seen the winner win again.
Though he is not a great EW price, I will be playing EW as it will be a bet to nothing if he does place, and he does have a running style which means that he might go close but be running on too late in the day to grab the win.
12:00 Newton Abbot - Race: 1
12:10 Hamilton - Race: 1
12:20 Roscommon - Race: 1