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Yesterday's sole selection was terrible. I am actually baffled how she ran so poor. She was travelling really well, jumping with fluency and then all of a sudden she went from 100 to 0 and Harry Skelton was after her with a circuit to go. No surprise to see the late gambled on horse winning, but there has to be something amiss with the performance of Runwiththetide, as it was too bad to be true.
Down Royal 1:45
Today's racing should be good again, but I think the English races are far too competitive to get involved, so I've dodged that and have found one I like in the Grade 3 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Novice Hurdle.
Willie Mullins has a good record in this race, winning it four times in the last ten years, so his runner of Purple Mountain has to be respected, but I don't think she is a world beater. Gordon Elliot loves running his horses at this track, and has a good strike rate here, but the price of Party Central is probably a little too short for what she achieved on hurdling debut, and her jumping would need to be seriously better to win this. A horse who might be overlooked in IMPERVIOUS, trained by Colm Murphy, who is obviously a much lesser known trainer, but this mare could be a flag-bearer for him for years to come.
She is two from two in her short career, and I think she could be a smart mare to follow. The wins have come over 2m 4f and 2m 3f, so on paper there is a slight concern that the drop in trip will not suit. However, the rain and soft ground which they already have at Down Royal will make it a stamina test over the 2m 1f, so you'd like to be with a horse who will stay the trip out, and potentially more, and Impervious fits the bill. She is a unknown on this ground, but based on breeding she should be fine, and the trainer seems to think she'll handle it too. Down Royal is a stiff track, so even more emphasis will be placed on the stamina, so even though she might be one of the first off the bridle, you'd like to think she'll be staying on strongly when coming down the hill and turning for home.
The form of her runs has worked out quite well, with the runner-up from both races winning in good style since.
It wouldn't be a surprise if she takes a walk in the market, as there are some of the biggest stables in this race.