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The form has been shocking recently, so hopefully a change in luck for Today's racing

Chepstow 1:10

With a couple of big yards sending some unexposed runners in this race, the smaller yards tend to get overlooked, and I feel like this is happening with POWERSTOWN PARK. This lad is just as unexposed as the others in this lineup, so shouldn't be underestimated by any means, but if punters do, then we should be getting some decent odds.

If you can look past his most recent start, which was his return to racing for this season where he unseated his rider at the third fence, then he comes into this race with a big chance in my opinion. His last start of last season came on his chase debut where he finished 4th out of six. Now, that might not appear to be solid form, but the race that he contested has proven to be full of horses who were well handicapped, and have gone on to be much higher rated than they were before. The winner has won two more times since, and is now a 145 rated chaser. The runner-up won on his second start after the race and produced an RPR of 134, which saw his rating go to 129. The fifth went on to win on his next race, which produced an RPR of 128, when his rating was only 101.

There are positives to take away from his most recent start, even though it didn't last long. His fitness will be better than it was then, so it would be surprising if he needs another run to reach peak fitness, as he has had 16 days training since the unseat. He would've been schooled thoroughly for his jumping to ensure that silly mistakes like that won't happen again like the last race. Jordan Nailor takes off a handy 3lbs, and is a good jockey booking as he is on a 29% SR in the last fortnight, and is clearly riding with tonnes of confidence, so I expect to see a good ride by Jordan.

Chepstow 2:20

This race could throw up a couple of good horses, as based on the form of a few already, they have shown to be decent. WELSBY is a horse who has had a very strange career as a racehorse, but at the grand old age of 9, he is remarkably extremely unexposed, but appears to have bags of talent.

The reason for his unexposed profile is due to the fact he didn't race for 1427 days after he won his only bumper when trained by Nicky Henderson. He must've had many setbacks, but either way, he left Nicky's yard and ended up at Deborah Faulkner's, who has managed to get a tune out of him as he simply ran a huge race at huge odds of 125/1 last time, where he finished 2nd to the well touted Mr Glass. There are a couple of ways you could view that run, and many will be sceptical of the form as he was massive odds, and was probably a little flattered to be as close as he was to the winner. But, I don't take that side, and I think it was a run full of promise, and something he can build on. I think he would've asked a question of Mr Glass if he wasn't inconvenienced by a faller a few flights from home, which stopped his momentum as he had to swerve the horse so he wasn't brought down. I still think the winner would have won, but it would've been interesting see how he would have reacted to seeing a contender.

With him having such a long time off the track, this third race could see him in his best shape to date. He has only has three starts over rules, so I believe there is much more to come, and that could be in handicaps, but it wouldn't surprise me if he runs a blinder in this today. There could be some decent horses in this race, like I mentioned earlier. Jetoile sets the standards with Welsby, and will is the horse I respect the most. Gaulois could be anything, and has been well supported due to connections of the horse, and that's fine as he could be very good, however on stable debut and the jockey booking of Tom Buckley seems a little strange, as Paul has got apprentices/riders at his disposal (Bryony Frost is at the track, so could've taken the ride), but he's opted for Tom who has only had 1 ride for him ever. At the odds I wouldn't be backing him in a hurry.

Ascot 2:05

I've been wanting to back GUY since I saw him run a belter at Market Rasen 34 days ago. The way he jumped and travelled through the race last time was very eye-catching, and looked like a horse who was well ahead of his mark. Despite the fact he travelled so well, he didn't quite get home as well as I was expecting, which leaves the impression he might've needed the run.

This race looks competitive, but so was the race at Market Rasen, and he is closely matched with Red Risk, which I can't see the latter named horse reversing the form due to the fact he is carrying top weight, and is still giving away a huge chunk of weight to the selection. The winner of the Market Rasen race went on to run well in the Grand Sefton at Aintree over the national fences, where he finished 2nd, so that was a nice form booster.

Nigel Twiston Davies has hit a good bit of form in the last fortnight, which has seen him land 9 winners from 32 runners (28% SR), and he is very confident of a big run from this horse: “He likes that sort of ground and he ran nicely on his first run of the season at Market Rasen. The race looks like it should really suit him. The track should be fine for him.”

Ascot 2:40

CAPTAIN MORGS made an encouraging return to the track when he finished 3rd at Cheltenham in their October meeting. That was his first run in 186 days, so he is entitled to have come on for that run, and the drop back in trip which he faces today, should also be a benefit if they go a good gallop, which they should.

His current mark of 125 could underestimate his ability, and he could be well handicapped. The form of his comeback run has started to work out quite well. The second horse was in the midst of running a huge race from the front in the Paddy Power Gold Cup before he fell. I don't think he would've won, but would've been fighting to the line for a placed finish. Also, the fourth placed horse, Art Approval, was well gambled on to win at Cheltenham in their recent November meeting, and the selection was only 3.25 lengths behind the second horse, and was 4.75 lengths ahead of Art Approval.

This could be a bit of good placing by Nicky Henderson as this horse gets in this race carrying 10 st 11lbs, which isn't exactly light, but he is somehow the third lightest in the contest. Nicky has won this race two times in the last four years, so he clearly knows what kind of horse it takes to win this specific race, and whether they are well handicapped enough to land a blow.

13:00 Southwell - Race: 1
Distance: 4f 214y
Type: Flat
Class: 6
Track: AllWeather
No
Silks
Runner
Odds
2
Swiss Connection
01/154-2

3
Kath's Toyboy
424577-

4
Red Walls
231407-

6
Cool Spirit
37599-5

9
Raabeh
07870-4

5
Aleef
236080-

1
Apatite
12560-5

7
Makyon
896809-

8
La Chica Lobo
02807-7

13:15 Kempton - Race: 1
Distance: 6f
Type: Flat
Class: 6
Track: Polytrack
No
Silks
Runner
Odds
2
Swiss Connection
01/154-2

3
Kath's Toyboy
424577-

4
Red Walls
231407-

6
Cool Spirit
37599-5

9
Raabeh
07870-4

5
Aleef
236080-

1
Apatite
12560-5

7
Makyon
896809-

8
La Chica Lobo
02807-7

13:30 Southwell - Race: 2
Distance: 4f 214y
Type: Flat
Class: 5
Track: AllWeather
No
Silks
Runner
Odds
3
Highest Ambition
98782-5

7
Light Of Thunder
576634-

4
Tantastic
705236-

5
Ubahha
3579-35

2
Gustav Graves
73428-8

1
Due A Win
603473-

6
Cecilia Beaux
7/5-

8
Nantosuelta
57-

34 Comments
  1. Thebigflu 2 months ago

    Having been around all week so ill be following theses babies,,,morraman,,,,sonning,,,,,give me a moment,,,,,minella trump,,,,,,minella plus,,,,reve,,,,river walk,,,,all catterick,,G,L with your bets

    • dazzman1979 2 months ago

      With you on river walk would prob be my pick of the day then duleek street 6:30 Dundalk if I where to chase a more skinny price winner today good luck 👍

      1
    • Thebigflu 2 months ago

      Bloody hell your up late lol how you keeping daz? Hope your winning,, yeah looks a day for the favs ascot looks hard but better prices, think skeleton gets 1 maybe 2 but ill mix them up with your and rizzs ,,see what plug has for us,, gl day

    • dazzman1979 2 months ago

      I’m always on duty !! 😂 joys of getting older waking up every night for a piss these days seems unavoidable ha

      1
    • Thebigflu 2 months ago

      Lol

  2. dazzman1979 2 months ago

    Chepstow- 1:45 – why not now ken 8/1

    Chepstow- 3:25 – man of many words 10/1

    Fingers crossed for a nice little payday day I need some honey money 🐝 🐝

    • dazzman1979 2 months ago

      Man of many words non runner so will replace with

      Duleek street 6:30 Dundalk 2/1

    • dazzman1979 2 months ago

      Duleek street a non runner now think someone upstairs is trying to tell me something ! Feed the bees honey 😂

  3. recoba 2 months ago

    2x singles and a double for me.

    Young Butler…2.55. 6/5
    Torn an Frayed…12.55. 5/4

    GL

    2
    • recoba 2 months ago

      Got to fancy Toojumbo at 11/10 in the first Chepstow.
      Backing Captain Margs,Rizzles tip with Paddy Power as it’s money back if finishes in top 4. 15/8 just now

      GL all

    • recoba 2 months ago

      Fell! 🚀

    • recoba 2 months ago

      Have a bet on another foreign radar from Appleby yard.

      Riyadh…1.00. Zakousk. 9/4.
      Can’t get much info for the actual race but his back firm winning a listed easily at Newmarket recently looks good to me and Buick on bosrd.

    • Thebigflu 2 months ago

      Nice

  4. elvis parsley 2 months ago

    Catchmeifyoucan 12-10 catterick.
    6-4 top 4 finish (main bet)
    11-4 top 3 finish smaller bet

    3
    • elvis parsley 2 months ago

      3rd 😁🏇

      3
  5. azzthewigan 2 months ago

    chlose court 12.00 doctor ken 12.20 well done all winners yesterday

  6. Gateacre Pete 2 months ago

    Light of Anthea 1.45 Chep. Ew extra 5 places 50/1 or 150s first 3 if your feeling brave. Was gonna put up Mr Trinket at Dundalk 4.00 but missed the boat waiting for ew extra. In to 33s now from 100s.
    GL

    12
    • MattECFC 2 months ago

      Brilliant mate

      3
    • Deb2000 2 months ago

      Superb Pete 👏👏

      2
    • recoba 2 months ago

      Top notch Sir top notch! 👏

      1
    • elvis parsley 2 months ago

      Ew extra thief strikes again 🏇⛳

      2
    • Gateacre Pete 2 months ago

      Well done if you where on👍

      1
    • Thebigflu 2 months ago

      W d

  7. theplug 2 months ago

    ASCOT 2-40 LEONCAVALLO 4/1

    2
    • Thebigflu 2 months ago

      Nice one

  8. azzthewigan 2 months ago

    mr trinket 4.00 ew well done all winners today

  9. elvis parsley 2 months ago

    My first Grammy 5-20 aquaduct.
    15-8 top 3 finish (main bet)
    11-1 ew (willy hills) smaller bet

  10. recoba 2 months ago

    Gulfstream-R1…Encrypted…5/2(*** best speed figure last run n definitely on the up)

    Off my tracker and 15mins till the off but there usually late.

    Back with main bets ASAP n hope for more than the 7/1 short priced favourites treble than last night as it was not great with the Yankee and main singles coming close 2nds! 🤷🏽‍♂️👎

    • recoba 2 months ago

      Gulfstream-R5…Rapturous 9/4(***** on a hatter to stay undefeated and with obvious improvement it’s the best bet of my sit in watch ‘Sky Racing Stateside’ between other TV..same Jockey and up in distance a touch will help too)

    • recoba 2 months ago

      Apologies this meant to be the 5* Rapturous the 4* but anyway it’s other single..

      Add for Yankee…

      Aqua-R7…Skim 10/3(*** ex uk and finding his feet well now)
      Del Mar-R5…Town Boy(***** 9/4 close and on only 4th start any improvement get him his win)
      Gulfstream -R8…Naughty Shirley. 9/4

      GL

      Also fancy Leddy at Churchill R8 but no prices and Bet365 go 11/10

      1
    • Thebigflu 2 months ago

      Took 2 of yours missed the rest fs am betting at woodbine,, kazusih he gets 2or 3 i think

      1
    • recoba 2 months ago

      Hope it was the 2 that have won??

      Disappointed in the first I was going to put Skim as main bet but $hat it just due to fact it might have went to dirt?
      One to keep in notebook and Naughty Shirley wins too so here’s hoping for Town Boy n it be very decent TheBigFlu.

      GL

    • recoba 2 months ago

      Well that’ll do Frickin nóicely!! 🇺🇸🐎🎲

  11. recoba 2 months ago

    Small stakes Trixie I looked out to be placed IF Town Boy won and he did that.

    Golden Gates-R6….Miss Glorious EVS
    Woodbine-R5…Spegetinmtzballs 2/1
    R6…Northern Conquest 11/2

    GL and goodnight

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