Racing tips: Guy will bounce off the good ground at Ascot

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The form has been shocking recently, so hopefully a change in luck for Today's racing. 

Chepstow 1:10

With a couple of big yards sending some unexposed runners in this race, the smaller yards tend to get overlooked, and I feel like this is happening with POWERSTOWN PARK. This lad is just as unexposed as the others in this lineup, so shouldn't be underestimated by any means, but if punters do, then we should be getting some decent odds.

If you can look past his most recent start, which was his return to racing for this season where he unseated his rider at the third fence, then he comes into this race with a big chance in my opinion. His last start of last season came on his chase debut where he finished 4th out of six. Now, that might not appear to be solid form, but the race that he contested has proven to be full of horses who were well handicapped, and have gone on to be much higher rated than they were before. The winner has won two more times since, and is now a 145 rated chaser. The runner-up won on his second start after the race and produced an RPR of 134, which saw his rating go to 129. The fifth went on to win on his next race, which produced an RPR of 128, when his rating was only 101.

There are positives to take away from his most recent start, even though it didn't last long. His fitness will be better than it was then, so it would be surprising if he needs another run to reach peak fitness, as he has had 16 days training since the unseat. He would've been schooled thoroughly for his jumping to ensure that silly mistakes like that won't happen again like the last race. Jordan Nailor takes off a handy 3lbs, and is a good jockey booking as he is on a 29% SR in the last fortnight, and is clearly riding with tonnes of confidence, so I expect to see a good ride by Jordan.

Chepstow 2:20

This race could throw up a couple of good horses, as based on the form of a few already, they have shown to be decent. WELSBY is a horse who has had a very strange career as a racehorse, but at the grand old age of 9, he is remarkably extremely unexposed, but appears to have bags of talent.

The reason for his unexposed profile is due to the fact he didn't race for 1427 days after he won his only bumper when trained by Nicky Henderson. He must've had many setbacks, but either way, he left Nicky's yard and ended up at Deborah Faulkner's, who has managed to get a tune out of him as he simply ran a huge race at huge odds of 125/1 last time, where he finished 2nd to the well touted Mr Glass. There are a couple of ways you could view that run, and many will be sceptical of the form as he was massive odds, and was probably a little flattered to be as close as he was to the winner. But, I don't take that side, and I think it was a run full of promise, and something he can build on. I think he would've asked a question of Mr Glass if he wasn't inconvenienced by a faller a few flights from home, which stopped his momentum as he had to swerve the horse so he wasn't brought down. I still think the winner would have won, but it would've been interesting see how he would have reacted to seeing a contender.

With him having such a long time off the track, this third race could see him in his best shape to date. He has only has three starts over rules, so I believe there is much more to come, and that could be in handicaps, but it wouldn't surprise me if he runs a blinder in this today. There could be some decent horses in this race, like I mentioned earlier. Jetoile sets the standards with Welsby, and will is the horse I respect the most. Gaulois could be anything, and has been well supported due to connections of the horse, and that's fine as he could be very good, however on stable debut and the jockey booking of Tom Buckley seems a little strange, as Paul has got apprentices/riders at his disposal (Bryony Frost is at the track, so could've taken the ride), but he's opted for Tom who has only had 1 ride for him ever. At the odds I wouldn't be backing him in a hurry.

Ascot 2:05

I've been wanting to back GUY since I saw him run a belter at Market Rasen 34 days ago. The way he jumped and travelled through the race last time was very eye-catching, and looked like a horse who was well ahead of his mark. Despite the fact he travelled so well, he didn't quite get home as well as I was expecting, which leaves the impression he might've needed the run.

This race looks competitive, but so was the race at Market Rasen, and he is closely matched with Red Risk, which I can't see the latter named horse reversing the form due to the fact he is carrying top weight, and is still giving away a huge chunk of weight to the selection. The winner of the Market Rasen race went on to run well in the Grand Sefton at Aintree over the national fences, where he finished 2nd, so that was a nice form booster.

Nigel Twiston Davies has hit a good bit of form in the last fortnight, which has seen him land 9 winners from 32 runners (28% SR), and he is very confident of a big run from this horse: “He likes that sort of ground and he ran nicely on his first run of the season at Market Rasen. The race looks like it should really suit him. The track should be fine for him.”

Ascot 2:40

CAPTAIN MORGS made an encouraging return to the track when he finished 3rd at Cheltenham in their October meeting. That was his first run in 186 days, so he is entitled to have come on for that run, and the drop back in trip which he faces today, should also be a benefit if they go a good gallop, which they should.

His current mark of 125 could underestimate his ability, and he could be well handicapped. The form of his comeback run has started to work out quite well. The second horse was in the midst of running a huge race from the front in the Paddy Power Gold Cup before he fell. I don't think he would've won, but would've been fighting to the line for a placed finish. Also, the fourth placed horse, Art Approval, was well gambled on to win at Cheltenham in their recent November meeting, and the selection was only 3.25 lengths behind the second horse, and was 4.75 lengths ahead of Art Approval.

This could be a bit of good placing by Nicky Henderson as this horse gets in this race carrying 10 st 11lbs, which isn't exactly light, but he is somehow the third lightest in the contest. Nicky has won this race two times in the last four years, so he clearly knows what kind of horse it takes to win this specific race, and whether they are well handicapped enough to land a blow.

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