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Yesterday was a decent day, with two winners, and both of them drifted. Hopefully we can continue the good form with a couple of winners.
After finally getting her head in front on the 20th time of asking, I'm siding with AMOURIE to get her second win on the bounce.
She ran a decent race on seasonal reappearance, which was on the back of 173 days off the track. On that day, she wasn't too far behind Bouncing Bobby, who she faces again today, but is 3lbs better off in the weights, which should give her the edge. She evidently likes this track, as this is venue of her only win, and she showed a decent turn of foot to get the front, after going wide around the bend, which isn't easy as this track. The form of the her first run of the season has worked out quite well. The winner has subsequently won, and Bouncing Bobby ran a nice race lto finish second. Neil Mullholand's True Romance holds a strong chance, but will probably go off a short price, and I think Amourie offers good value if you fancy taking on the favourite.
A mark of 48 is not a high mark, and although she is clearly not the greatest filly, this new mark should definitely be within her reach. She looks a better filly this year, and I'm putting that down to maturing. She is a 5yo now, so she might've filled out, in terms of her frame. Her trainer, Ray Craggs, is in great form recently. He has had 3 wins from 5 runners in the last 14 days, so it could be worth siding with her again.
Ffos Las 1:50
Although I am taking on True Romance, I do think the form lines of that race are good, and for that reason I think it will be hard to beat GOOD IMPRESSION in the opener at Ffos Las.
He ran a blinder last time out at Bath, where he was beaten by small margins to True Romance. Connections must've been expecting a big run, as they booked Tom Marquand for that day. True Romance was well backed that day, and was well handicapped on old pieces of form. Merlins Beard (3rd) and Hooves Like Jagger (6th) both won next time out, which has obviously franked the form.
This race looks weaker than the one at Bath, and Oisin Murphy is a very eye-catching jockey booking.
Ffos Las 4:45
BEOWULF looked to have plenty in hand last time, when winning over this course and distance, and I think it will be hard to stop him again, even though he has been hit by a 9lb rise in the weights.
The way he picked up and put the race to bed last time was very impressive, and he looked like a well handicapped horse. I think that race was a strong race for the grade, which makes the 4 length success even better. This race doesn't seem too competitive, and I'd probably say The Nu Form Way is the main danger, as Tom Dascombe sends this horse from his Cheshire base to South Wales for his only horse of the day, with Jane Elliot travelling for the one ride. Jane is 1/1 at the track, and although Tom Dascombe has a 0/5 record at the track in the last 5 years, he is in good form and any market confidence should be noted.
As for Beowulf, he has a very attractive pedigree, being by Camelot and out of a Group 3 placed mare, who received RPRs in 100s on multiple of occasions. Ed Walker continues to have a good season, and he's sitting at a 33% SR in the last fortnight, and Oisin is riding out of his skin too (23% SR). The rise in the weights will make this hard, but I think he will progress and be much better than the horses in this field.
12:00 Newton Abbot - Race: 1
12:10 Hamilton - Race: 1
12:20 Roscommon - Race: 1