This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Yesterday's racing wasn't great, and the selection drifted from 100/30 to 7/1 minutes before the off, so the writing was on the wall before the race even started.
Exeter 3:40
This is not a great race in terms of quality, but on paper, the amount of horses who could win is slim. SERJEANT PAINTER should be favourite in my opinion, and the fact that he's not is rather surprising, as to me he has the best form on offer, and looks like he could be on a decent enough mark.
It took Serjeant Painter nine attempts to finally get a win over hurdles, after previously placing on the previous three runs. It's quite apparent that a move to Ben Pauling's yard has seen him improve a fair amount, with all of four of his runs resulting in a place or a win, whereas before he was heavily beaten. The form of his win has actually worked out quite well with the runner-up winning subsequently, and winning a good 8 lengths. The form of some of his placed efforts have also worked out well. The winners of the previous two races before he won both went on to win again.
The selection was put up 5lbs for his success, and that's a fair assessment, but I don't think it will be enough to halt his good form. This race doesn't appear to be strong, and even the lightly raced unexposed horses like Opine and Guy De Guye don't look well treated off their current ratings, so it's best to go with a horse who is in form and could punish a bad bunch of horses. Trainer Ben Pauling is in good form as of late, winning 3 of the last 9 races he's had runners in (33% SR) and is operating at a 16% SR, which is a good start to the jumps season.
When studying the race, I thought that Blood Eagle was one of the horses who could go well, but I thought it was interesting that Kielan Woods who has rode Blood Eagle on multiple occasions, has opted to ride Serjeant Painter. Gerard Mentor is the current fav, but the form behind Seargent (runs earlier in the day) doesn't seem as strong as it might appear to be.
Worcester 2:48
The horse who will attract all the support for this race is Outlaw Peter, and I'm sure he will be in a lot of accumulators for Thursday's racing, but he's a slim price, and I think he is worth taking on with a debutante.
It's always risky going for a horse on debut, but if there was ever a sign that this horse could be decent, it's this one. HAAS BOY grabs my attention in this bumper race, and I believe he could threaten the horses who have the experience edge over him. This son of Diamond Boy was bought by connections for £31,000 last summer, which is a similar amount to what the owner bought his only other horse, Supremely Lucky, who was a bumper winner on his debut (RPR 121).
Charlie Longsdon is currently on fire, with 5 winners from 16 runners in the past fortnight, operating at a 31%. He is currently 1/2 in bumper races this season, with the winner being ridden by today's rider, Brian Hughes. Brian doesn't come to Worcester all that often, and he makes the trip for the one ride, on the selection. That could mean nothing at all, but I don't believe he would waste his time, so I think this could be a decent animal. Brian is 3/9 in bumper races at this track (overall), so that goes to show he doesn't waste his time when coming to Worcester. Brian has also started the season extremely well, as you would expect, already having 65 winners and has a 30% SR in bumpers with 7 wins from 23 rides.
The reason why Outlaw Peter is odds on is the fact he finished nine lengths behind the horse who finished fourth in the Champion bumper at Cheltenham. The form of the other horses in that race at Navan hasn't exactly set the world alight, but you can see why punters believe he is the one to go for, especially since this is his first start for Paul Nicholls. As for the rest who have experience, I don't really rate Kicksaftersix's form, despite his run being rated as 111 by the Racing Post, it hasn't worked out that well.
In December 2020 we sadly 
Exeter
2:30 – sizing at midnight – 9/2
3:40 – guye de guy – 11/2
4:50 – eclair des Sablons – 8/1
Nut su cow ! Gl
Must not forget this one !
Ayr – 1:00 – THE GAY BLADE ! 14/1 e/w punt
Oh no, not the gay Sheffield United fan again 🌈
Hello all,
I hope everyone is well. I’ve 2 selections for tomorrow and fingers crossed we can get back to winnings ways after a few days of dross.
Ayr 1:00 – Beltane – Evens
The drop back to 6f looks the right move as connections aim to get Beltanes head in front. He’s went of favourite last few starts and has went and tried to take them all from the front but unfortunately the last furlong he seems to run out of fuel. I mentioned last week that I’m a fan of Callum Rodriguez I see most of winners come from nice front prominent rides and I can see him again going for similar tactics tomorrow. Fingers crossed the drop back to 6 does the trick.
My last selection and one I thought was possibly over priced was..
Ayr – Erich Bloch 12/1 Each way
Gone for another one of Callum Rodriguez rides. Erich Bloch won over course and distance last September and followed up again in October one win was on good and the other on soft so he’s versatile ground wise.
He returned to racing at the end of last month at Catterick where he finished 7th of 8 runners however he was of the track for roughly 3/4 months so I’m hoping he’ll come on for the run.
It’s a tricky little race and probably not one for lumping big money on but I did think he was slightly over priced at 12s and each way isn’t a bad bet.
Good luck.
2nd selection is 3:15 Ayr
Apologies
Beltane 💥
Thanks cairnzy good start
I like one in that ayr race cairnzy too.
John Kirkup
16-1 ew 4 places @paddy power
9-1 Betfair ew edge 6 places.
3rd in this last year, won here 3 of his last 4 wins been here on soft or heavy ground so the slower the better for this slow boat
Back on same mark as when winning here in July.
I was caught between the 2 of them myself Elvis I fancy an outsider to land that race.
Good luck!
Ferblue 10-50 Bordeaux le bosscat 11-4 @ SKYBET.
Ooohing and aaahing between this and stablemate gaboriot.. ferblue has won here on the flat and may have a bit more class, but there again he may not 😆🇫🇷
Puffin bay 1-55 Exeter 2-1 🏴
Apparently not related to the trainer’s former runner puffin Billy who won me a few quid a few years ago,, but won his bumper well and if he is as good as the horse he is not related to must have a chance.
Puffin Billy !
Puffin bay !
I still reckon they must be related somewhere down the line 🏇
Thanks for the informative write up cairnzy1878 always good to read your thoughts on the days racing also really fancy 1.00 Beltane when it comes to favourites do you have any red flags to avoid false favourites ? Good -bad favourites I personally won’t back them unless I can at least get evens on them
Have a look at magnolia bud in the 1’00 top jockey in hangan , and top trainer , r fahey ,,
@Bertie
Hi mate thanks for your message. I’m regards to backing favourites and red flags etc things I would always look out for are the following.
– The nature in which they won their last race
– If they are taking a significant step up in grade
– Stepping up or down in distance
– the horses pedigree
– Carrying top weight
– Jockey Bookings
Horse racing in the end of the day is probably the most unpredictable sport you can place your money on. Don’t get me wrong knowing your racing definitely will earn you more money in the long run than not however sometimes knowing all this information means absolutely nothing. If the horse wants to run it’ll run.
Good luck today.
Good bits of advice there 👍
Samtara Wor 3.23 15/2
Gl
Morning All
WORCESTER
14.13. .Thegallantway. .11/4
15.58. .Colorado Doc. .5/2 . .Against the odds on but chance for me
EXETER
14.30. .Carolines Charm. .12/1. E/W
15.40. .Gerard Mentor. .9/2. . If Seargent runs well in the 3.05 this price could tumble so I got on early.
GL ALL
Morning all well done winners yesterday
Dr t j eckleburd 1.30a 9-2
Chinese spirit 2.05a 11-1
Flying moon 2.40a 5-1
John kirkup 3.15a 10-1
Carlovian 3.50a 20-1
First greyed 4.25a 17-2
Frightened rabbit 4.55a 10-1
Ew singles & ew super hienz ☘️☘️Gl all
Innse gall,,temper trap,,,,Havana go,,,cold stare,,,listen again,,,kats bob,,smart lass,,,all,, ayr G,L
Well done the winners yesterday!
Skip that typing just *REPOST* yesterday’s post
Trixie and singles for USA tonight…
Beltarra-R2…Pole Setter. 13/8(** love this horse who’s won for me plenty and steps up a touch in class but best at this distance,favourites NR now)
Deleware -R4…R Averie Lynn. 13/8(**** flying lately and can land 3 timer in a possible worse race)
Indiana-R7…Mowins 4/5.
Add for a mega Acca(*) pays near 40/1 and worth a $ or a buck o 5 but no ‘tree fiddy!’
Remington -R5…Oh What Luck 10/11
Finger Lakes-R5….Grudge 4/7
Indiana-R7..Piadi Bianchi 4/9
Reply
recoba
Apologies Pole Setter was NOT to be in that I was wondering why odds were so big.
Just the 5 pays 18/1(*) Bet365
Last race was 2.59am but only Pole Setter single lost which was put on more my heart overruling my nuts if I’m honest.
GL today guys
Never got to say thanks for the bet the other day, you were unlucky 2winners a second and N,R, bet payed eves ,,
No worries mate. 👍
Yeah that was Tuesday when Bet365 made an ar$e of my NR single that was also in my Yankee. The 2nd was 1m from a win mate or been a Trixie up. Few singles later I posted made up for it but. 😉
Have a look at these babies,,dealmaker6’24,, coltons dream7’56,,,reconfigure 8’27,,,kiddie holiday 8’59,,,funiculi,,all woodbine G,L
Last 3 look good TheBigFlu although few with chances mate and I’ve one going against Coltons Dream that I backed against last time n he beat a decent type,jockey and more improvement swayed me but yours is the danger.
As I type my Yankee out my 5* has went NR!
Upgrade for 4* and go…
Trixie and single and hope Bet365 don’t mess it up like last night.
Gulfstream-R5…Don’t get Khozy 13/8. Skybet (***** beat a good horse well last run as in MINE and is in fine form so a repeat NR suffice but more could come)
R6…Ethos. 3/1
Woodbine-R5…Soul Freedom 5/2
GL
*Add Belmont-R2…I’m Perfect Too for Yankee.
Still waiting on Bet365 here the horse been NR for 40mins and Skybet are onto it??
Any luck I might join you on some later at Woodbine TheBigFlu 😉
Prices shouldn’t move to much as I think the later 3 are tight/tough races.
GL all today 👍🇺🇸🐎🇬🇧
Can’t edit my bet and no money back for the single!! 😡
Frickin Bet365 at it!!!
After last night making an ar$e of it for “a one off” they will give me doh back for my single but “usually I’d have to wait till the race is settled “ and I can’t edit my Yankee which is horse shit!
obviously changed there rules and not an apology nothing it’s my fault a horse is NR 6/7 hours before it runs??
🐎 💩
Mines be a Trixie and backed Belmont R2 selection.
GL yoll! 🙄
Ethos pi$$ and single Don’t Get Khozy(****) was finishing like a freight train but bad start cost him,10 more yards he’s a winner. 🙄
Good 7/2 on Soul Freedom wasted!
Belmont-R8…The Important One 2/1(***)
Small double with Sweet Mia R7
R/Fc with Byhubbyhellomoney and The Important One. 3 – 1.
A great start to the day with the drop back to 6f doing the trick for connections.
Jumbo missed the break and managed to grab the rail but Beltane fought back in the last half a furlong and got the nose in front.
Tipped at even money.
More more to run in 3:15 – Each way on Erich Bloch
Good luck
Small L15
Ayr 3.15 Erich Bloch
Ayr 3.50 One Last Hug
Ayr 2.40 Flying Moon
Exet 4.15 Umndemi
🙂
Hi cairnzy1878 thanks for taking the time to reply to my questions some great advice there which I will take on board most helpful thanks many very good contributors on this site and so much knowledge which makes it a great site to visit each day Beltane gets up for the win 🏆 cheers
storm home 4.15
Good day . .Colorado Doc won . .Carolines Charm placed at 14/1
The annoying one was after Sergeant winning Gerard Mentor came second .
GL ALL
Yeah but good stuff Busstop!
Took Gerard Mentor(namesake) to place with Carnzys tip as it was 8/15 by time I got near it so decent wee double. 👍
Last day of the flat racing smashed ayr ,won a few pound so on to usa ye ha ,
Well done today. Good to have you posting again.
8:00 Chelmsford- puffin island 4/1 nap/nb
Thistledown-R5. Reverse Forecast
6-1(***)
GL
Middle Holiday gets up TheBigFlu ,had a wee bet I hope you did too. Should have double it rather than Sweet Mia but hey.
Belmont-R8…The Important One 2/1(***)
Small double with Sweet Mia R7
R/Fc with Byhubbyhellomoney and The Important One. 3 – 1.
Having a MARE till that with a nice drift to 3/1 and forecast was £19 n change back. 😓 😊
Yeah you were unlucky again winner and two second,money back so not to bad , its going two come your way , your getting closer and closer everyday,and you called the first few donkeys i had aswell, nice shot on that also
Shout
Cheers.
Don’t Khozy was very frustrating.
So close to not bothering with the R/fc as well n glad I did as Skybet DONT do best odds in USA!
Put the forecast on with Bet365 and they do but Skybet sucked me in with slightly better odds for single. I actually knew and forgot that crap with them.
Gets into profit n more but