Racing tips: Bay Breeze can cause an upset in the opener at Catterick

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The French selections we're a tad unlucky yesterday, but it wasn't the end of the world, as it was a slight loss if you backed all three. Wally just about won on the line, and it didn't look likely, until the dying stages. Never Dies never settled in a snails pace race in the sprint, and that wasn't a true representation of what he is, and Poetic Flare was a narrow loser to Palace Pier, which was a cracking race.

Catterick 1:45

I am not a big fan of backing a horse in a 2yo race, but I think BAY BREEZE could be overlooked in the market, and I think he could outrun his odds. At the time of writing he is the largest priced runner in the field, which isn't a great surprise, as he is the only horse in the field who hasn't won a race. However, the way this race could pan out, and the fact some of his form is better than what it looks at a first glance, I think he will play a part in this race.

It's hard to say how the pace in a 2yo race will unveil, as they are all still lightly raced, and chances are that connections haven't worked out what is their preferable way of racing. However, there is a chance that this will have a strong pace. I'm A Gambler, Poppy Petal, Golden Rainbow & Latin Lover have all made the running in one or more of their races, which could mean that a couple of these will take each other on for the lead. Catterick is a track where being handy is highly beneficial, so it wouldn't be a great surprise to see a burn up, as the jockeys will want to be prominent. I'm hoping that this will happen, as Bay Breeze has raced in the rear in a couple of his races, and I think a fast run 6f will be straight up his street. He seems to be a little outpaced over 5f, which was on show when he was struggling at Chester, but he stayed on well, and it appeared than an extra furlong would be what he wants at this moment in his career. His only attempt at 6f so far was a good run. He travelled strongly throughout that race, but was beaten by horses who have since won or ran well in better races.

The sectional times from his most recent run from Chester suggests that he will be better at this trip, as his stamina over 5f is definitely his strength, rather than his speed. He was severely outpaced early in the race, but his sectionals from the 2f pole to the finish were the quickest in the race, especially his final furlong, which was 0.33s quicker than the second horse, and was 0.26s quicker than the winner.

The ground would appear to be a disadvantage if you delve into the Sire's statistics for his progeny on Good ground and Good To Firm. Buratino, the sire of Bay Breeze, has a 4% SR for his progeny when they've raced on Good ground, which equals 4 wins from 72 runners. He is also 0/38 on Good To Firm. Though these stats don't give confidence for the ground, Buratino's best form was all on a fast surface, so there's no reason for his progeny to not take to the ground. His progeny have been best on soft ground, but if you look into it a little more, the Dam's of those horses have all relished soft ground, so there is a strong chance that they have all taken it from the mother's side. If that is the case for Bay Breeze, then we should be fine on the ground, as although his Dam wasn't a great filly, she was best on fast ground.

Tim Easterby won this race in its last renewal in 2019 with a horse who had raced eight times before eventually winning, and raced off bottom weight in the race. Both of which are similar to Bay Breeze, as he is five runs without a win, and will carry bottom weight in this race.

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