Two selections today, with a rare selection from a jumps meeting, coming from Worcester, and the other in the last race at Thirsk. On a side note, hopefully, both men involved in the accident at Hamilton yesterday are well and healthy, and have a speedy recovery.
The fast ground might not be what she wants, but the extra 4f should help ALAMBRISTA progress, like a lot of Sir Mark Prescott's do when they are upped in trip.
This lightly raced 3yo filly was backed into 5/4f for her seasonal reappearance, and it's not surprise to see that happen, as it happens a lot of the time for Sir Mark's horses on their handicap debuts when they turn 3yo. She ran below par, and below market expectation, but I'm willing to think that was a blip. I've seen it a few times already this season where Sir Mark has had a short price favourite who has run poor on their first start of the season, but then win next time out, and I hope this is the case for this well-bred filly. She is a half-sister to four black type fillies, who have all achieved RPRs in the 100s, with the main one being Albaflora who won a Listed race at Ascot by 7 lengths earlier on in the season. It would be mightily disappointing if Alambrista wasn't better than a mark of 63, and although she might need softer ground, based on her pedigree, she should have the capabilities of winning a race of this nature off such a low mark.
Sir Mark doesn't send many to this track, winning 1/4 in the last five years, so he must feel this looks like a good opportunity, as he is a shrewd operator.
The 6lb rise which WRITE IT DOWN received for winning last time out will make it harder to win this race, as it is arguably a lot more competitive than the recent win, but based on his previous exploits, he is definitely capable of winning off a mark of 83.
2m 3f – 2mf 4f is arguably his best trip, and when he gets this trip with good ground, he is much better than any other condition, so it's not a surprise to see his rating of 102 fall to 77 when he was racing over further and on soft ground. Last time out he got the ground and trip he enjoys, which was the first time he had both of them combined since November 2020, when he was rated 23lbs higher. I think the form of the recent win is quite good form despite the fact the front two pulled 12 lengths clear of the field. Briac who finished a SHD into second is a horse who is on a good mark, and is capable of winning. I tipped Briac up at the start of May where he ran a decent race for his new trainer, and I thought after that race, he would win soon.
Write It Down has won off 87 and 95 in the past, so his mark of 83 shouldn't pose any issues. Jonjo O'Neill is a trainer who generally does well during the summer months, and it is where he gets the majority of his wins, so the fact he's started off quite well, operating at a 16% SR is a good indicator that he's placing his horses in the correct races, and they're running to form. At the current odds of 4/1, I'm more than happy to take that. With him being owned by JP McManus, any market movement is a good indicator of what to expect.
12:00 Redcar - Race: 1
12:25 Perth - Race: 1
12:35 Redcar - Race: 2